Red Sox vs Blue Jays 07/19/21 – Odds and MLB Betting Trends

The Toronto Blue Jays have had mixed results as a narrow favorite, but they are catching a division-leading Boston Red Sox team that has also struggled as a road underdog. The Blue Jays are -128 favorites and the Red Sox are +108 underdogs with a 10.5-run total on the MLB odds for Monday night at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.

The Blue Jays are 6-10 in their last 16 home games against the Red Sox, with the OVER hitting nine times at online sports betting sites. They are 9-9 in their last 18 home games as a -115 to -145 favorite, with the OVER hitting 10 times. The Red Sox are 1-5 in their last six games as an away underdog, with the OVER hitting four times (how the OVER/UNDER works).

The Red Sox lead the AL East with a 56-38 record. They are MLB’s fifth-highest scoring team at 5.00 runs per game. Bobby Dalbec (1.194 OPS against Toronto), Xander Bogaerts (1.072) and Christian Arroyo (.864) have been Boston’s best batters so far in the season series. Red Sox all-stars Rafael Devers (.739) and J.D. Martinez (.714) have been contained, so far.

The Red Sox are 20th in starting pitcher ERA (4.41) and ninth in relief ERA (3.69).

The Blue Jays have a 48-42 record. They are MLB’s third-highest scoring team at 5.21 runs per game. All-stars Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1.532 OPS against Boston), Bo Bichette (1.283), Teoscar Hernández (1.058) and Marcus Semien (1.030) have been four of Toronto’s five best batters in the season series with Boston.

The Blue Jays are ninth in starting pitcher ERA (3.87) and 13th in relief ERA (4.00).

Righthander Ross Stripling (3-5, 4.34 ERA, 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings) will start on Monday against Red Sox righthander Nick Pivetta (7-4, 4.30 ERA, 10.6 SO/9).

Stripling has a career 5.32 ERA against Boston (with five home runs allowed in 23.2 innings). His teams are 10-8 in his last 18 home-favorite starts, but the UNDER has hit in six of the last seven. The Canadian-born Pivetta has a career 7.06 ERA in 21.2 innings against the Blue Jays, and his teams are 4-11 in his last 15 away-underdog starts. The total has gone UNDER in five of Pivetta’s last eight road starts when his team was the underdog.

Rookie righthander Alek Manoah (2-1, 2.90 ERA, 11.6 SO/9) will start on Tuesday, while the Red Sox will counter with fellow righty Garrett Richards (5-5, 4.91 ERA, 7.2 SO/9).

Manoah, who will be starting for the first time in 11 days, has had the OVER hit in three of his last four starts. He allowed one run over six innings in his first outing against Boston on June 14. Richards’ teams are 10-8 in his last 18 starts on the road, but six of the last seven have finished OVER. Richards has a career 5.26 ERA in 53 innings against the Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays have not formally announced their starter for Wednesday, when Robbie Ray (8-4, 2.93 ERA, 11.6 SO/9) would be in line to start on four days’ rest. The Red Sox will start rookie righthander Tanner Houck (0-2, 3.38 ERA, 10.1 SO/9).

In the event Ray pitches, it is worth noting his ERA on four days’ rest is a full run higher (3.44) than it is in his other starts (2.45). He also has a 5.91 ERA in 10.2 career innings against Boston, but Ray’s teams are 14-6 in his last 20 home starts with the OVER hitting 12 times. The total has gone UNDER in three of the five career starts by Houck, who has never faced the Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays have an off-day on Thursday before beginning a three-game road series against the New York Mets.