Who knows what to believe in the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. negotiations anymore.

<a href="https://twitter.com/hgomez27/status/1901513624964755546">According to Héctor Gómez</a>, the Blue Jays are planning to offer Guerrero Jr. a 14-15 year deal worth $550-$600 million. Whether or not this is true, I’m sure we’ll find out in due time.
It’s worth noting that Gómez said “closer to what Guerrero Jr. wants” in the Tweet. However, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6194664/2025/03/11/vladimir-guerrero-blue-jays-contract-demand/">Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic</a> reported last Tuesday that Guerrero Jr.’s ask was $500 million in present-day value. That was leaked shortly after <a href="https://nypost.com/2025/03/11/sports/blue-jays-contract-offer-to-vladimir-guerrero-jr-revealed/">New York Post’s Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman</a> reported that the Blue Jays offered Guerrero Jr. $500 million with heavy deferrals that brought the present-day value to around $400 million to $450 million.
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Perhaps Gómez’s report has the contract at $600 million with heavy deferrals that bring the present-day value to $500 million. Either way, this has become a massive distraction and will only become bigger as the season wears on. However, if Guerrero Jr. does sign an extension, the window of contention for the Blue Jays will be increase drastically.
Last season was one of Guerrero Jr.’s best years to date, as he slashed .323/.396/.544 with 30 home runs in 697 plate appearances for a 165 wRC+, the sixth-best in the league. For the fourth consecutive season, Guerrero Jr. led the team in home runs dating back to his 48 home runs in the 2021 season, ironically the other superstar calibre season the first baseman has had.
However, sandwiched between the 2021 and 2024 seasons are two seasons of varying success. In 2022, Guerrero Jr. slashed .274/,339/.480 with 32 home runs in 706 plate appearances for a 132 wRC+. In 2023, he slashed .264/.345/.444 with 26 home runs in 682 plate appearances for a 118 wRC+.
This is to say that determining Guerrero Jr.’s value is quite difficult, as he’s had two seasons where he’s lived up to his hype coming up through the Blue Jays system, a good season in 2022, and three mediocre seasons in 2019, 2020, and 2023.
Either way, the Blue Jays really need to find a way to get this contract done as Guerrero Jr.’s importance isn’t just on the field. He’s the face of the franchise and losing him in free agency or at the trade deadline signals the start of a rebuild. And it’ll be a long rebuild, as <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2025-preseason">MLB Pipeline</a><a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2025-preseason"> ranked the Blue Jays’ farm system as the fourth-worst in the league</a>.
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Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, Oilersnation, and FlamesNation. They can be followed on Twitter @Ryley__Delaney.
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Who knows what to believe in the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. negotiations anymore.



<a href="https://twitter.com/hgomez27/status/1901513624964755546">According to Héctor Gómez</a>, the Blue Jays are planning to offer Guerrero Jr. a 14-15 year deal worth $550-$600 million. Whether or not this is true, I’m sure we’ll find out in due time.

It’s worth noting that Gómez said “closer to what Guerrero Jr. wants” in the Tweet. However, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6194664/2025/03/11/vladimir-guerrero-blue-jays-contract-demand/">Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic</a> reported last Tuesday that Guerrero Jr.’s ask was $500 million in present-day value. That was leaked shortly after <a href="https://nypost.com/2025/03/11/sports/blue-jays-contract-offer-to-vladimir-guerrero-jr-revealed/">New York Post’s Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman</a> reported that the Blue Jays offered Guerrero Jr. $500 million with heavy deferrals that brought the present-day value to around $400 million to $450 million.
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Perhaps Gómez’s report has the contract at $600 million with heavy deferrals that bring the present-day value to $500 million. Either way, this has become a massive distraction and will only become bigger as the season wears on. However, if Guerrero Jr. does sign an extension, the window of contention for the Blue Jays will be increase drastically.

Last season was one of Guerrero Jr.’s best years to date, as he slashed .323/.396/.544 with 30 home runs in 697 plate appearances for a 165 wRC+, the sixth-best in the league. For the fourth consecutive season, Guerrero Jr. led the team in home runs dating back to his 48 home runs in the 2021 season, ironically the other superstar calibre season the first baseman has had.

However, sandwiched between the 2021 and 2024 seasons are two seasons of varying success. In 2022, Guerrero Jr. slashed .274/,339/.480 with 32 home runs in 706 plate appearances for a 132 wRC+. In 2023, he slashed .264/.345/.444 with 26 home runs in 682 plate appearances for a 118 wRC+.

This is to say that determining Guerrero Jr.’s value is quite difficult, as he’s had two seasons where he’s lived up to his hype coming up through the Blue Jays system, a good season in 2022, and three mediocre seasons in 2019, 2020, and 2023.

Either way, the Blue Jays really need to find a way to get this contract done as Guerrero Jr.’s importance isn’t just on the field. He’s the face of the franchise and losing him in free agency or at the trade deadline signals the start of a rebuild. And it’ll be a long rebuild, as <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2025-preseason">MLB Pipeline</a><a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2025-preseason"> ranked the Blue Jays’ farm system as the fourth-worst in the league</a>.

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Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, Oilersnation, and FlamesNation. They can be followed on Twitter @Ryley__Delaney.

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