MLB betting preview (April 4): Blue Jays vs. Mets predictions

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman (34) throws a pitch against the Baltimore Orioles during the first inning at Rogers Centre.

Photo credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

Apr 4, 2025, 10:58 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays will look to extend their winning streak to five games when they visit the New York Mets this Friday afternoon.

Toronto is coming off a three-game sweep of the Washington Nationals after opening the season with a four-game split against the Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays will now play the next 10 games on the road, with stops in Boston and Baltimore following three games with the Mets this weekend.

The Mets opened the season by dropping two of three games to the Astros in Houston, but they rebounded by taking two of three from the Marlins in Miami earlier this week. They’ll now play their home opener on Friday against Toronto and the next six games at Citi Field before hitting the road again.

Both teams were off on Thursday and will be rested ahead of this series.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Friday’s clash between the Blue Jays and Mets courtesy of bet365.

Blue Jays vs. Mets odds

Blue Jays moneyline odds	+110
Mets moneyline odds	-130
Runline odds	Mets -1.5 (+150), Blue Jays +1.5 (-180)
Game total	Over 7.5 runs (-105), Under 7.5 (-115)
Date/Time	April 4, 3:10 p.m. ET

About the Blue Jays (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS, 3-4 o/u)

The Blue Jays have to be feeling pretty good about a 5-2 start to the season, but their schedule gets increasingly more difficult beginning Friday as they embark on a 10-game road trip. They don’t have a scheduled day off during this stretch, but you have to figure that weather will play a factor in the Northeastern United States this early in the season, which could lead to a postponement or two.

It’s early, but Toronto ranks in the top 10 in several offensive categories out of the gates, including runs per game (4.6 – 10th), batting average (.288 – fourth), on-base percentage (.355 – sixth), slugging percentage (.429 – ninth), and OPS (.784 – ninth). George Springer, Andrés Giménez, and Bo Bichette have been leading the charge at the plate, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Santander off to slow starts by their standards. Springer has been especially potent, slashing .429/.520/.667 with five RBIs through seven games.

About the Mets (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 o/u)

Most oddsmakers gave the Mets the fourth-shortest odds (around +1000) of winning the World Series heading into the season after they added superstar slugger Juan Soto this past offseason. Soto hasn’t been as potent in the batter’s box with just five hits, one double, and one home run, but his .407 on-base percentage is impressive as opposing pitchers continue to find ways to pitch around him.

Pete Alonso has benefitted from the protection Soto provides in the batting order, as he leads the team in batting average (.286), RBIs (eight), and OBP (.423). Overall, the Mets have struggled offensively, posting a dreadful .188 team batting average (27th in the majors), but it’s a very small sample size. There’s enough talent on this roster to rank in the top 10, or perhaps even the top five, in most offensive statistical categories this season.

The depth of the starting rotation is already being tested early, as Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas are both dealing with ailments and are on the injured list.

Probable starting pitchers

Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (1-0, 3.00 ERA, 6.00 K/9)

Gausman was solid in his opening start against the Orioles, holding them to two earned runs over six innings while striking out four.

He’ll be pitching on an extra day of rest Friday after Toronto was forced to shuffle its rotation due to an injury to Max Scherzer. After adding some muscle in the offseason, Gausman’s fastball averaged 95.4 mph in his season debut, 1.4 mph faster than his 2024 average. He also had slightly better velocity on his splitter, which was only hit once (for a single) on 34 occasions by the Orioles. It should be noted that Gausman’s road splits were solid last season. He posted an 8-5 record with a 2.51 ERA while holding opponents to a .218 batting average away from Rogers Centre.

New York: RHP Tylor Megill (1-0, 1.80 ERA, 10.80 K/9)

Standing at six-foot-seven and 230 lbs, Megill is an intimidating presence on the mound. His fastball can creep up to almost triple digits on occasion, and he’s recently been working on a new slider variant, which had five more inches of break in his first outing of the season when compared to last year. He was solid in that initial outing, holding the Astros to one run over five innings while striking out six. Megill could be a breakout pitcher to watch this season after four years of mediocrity.

Notable injuries

Outfielder Daulton Varsho (shoulder) and pitchers Scherzer (lat), Ryan Burr (shoulder), and Erik Swanson (forearm) are all on the injured list for the Blue Jays.

As for the Mets, infielder Jeff McNeil (oblique), catcher Francisco Alvarez (hand), and pitchers Manaea (oblique) and Montas (lat) are all on the shelf.

Weather

Weather shouldn’t play too much of a factor in this one, as forecasts are projecting temperatures around 18 C under cloudy skies. Winds will blow from left field to right field at around 8 mph.

Blue Jays vs. Mets betting trends

The Mets took two of three games in the season series with the Blue Jays last year.
The under is 4-0 in Toronto’s last four games.
The Mets have covered the runline in 31 of their past 50 home games.

Blue Jays vs. Mets player prop trends

Gausman has allowed two earned runs or less in eight of his past 10 starts dating back to last season and is around -135 to keep that trend going.
Giménez is riding a 10-game hitting streak dating back to the playoffs last season into this matchup with the Mets. He’s around -195 to extend that streak to 11 games. He’s also beaten his line of 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-105 odds on Friday) in 10 straight games.
Springer has driven in at least one run in four straight games and is +220 to hit or exceed that mark again.

Blue Jays vs. Mets predictions

Starling Marte over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs: +105 (best odds at Sports Interaction). Marte will be the designated hitter and bat fifth behind Brandon Nimmo on Friday, and his career numbers against Gausman are absolutely electric: 8-for-13 (.615 batting average) with a 1.764 OPS, one home run, and seven RBIs. The veteran finds himself competing for playing time this year on a stacked Mets roster, but he’s beaten this line in both of the previous games he’s started this season.