Knowing which prospects to trade is often half the battle during this time of year.

That’s a topic many around this team are currently pondering with the July 31 trade deadline less than two weeks away. Most expect the Toronto Blue Jays to be one of the most aggressive buyers this season, and rightly so, considering they’re entering the second half with a two-game lead in the AL East and are only 3.5 games back of the Detroit Tigers for the league’s best record.

And the franchise’s trade-deadline needs are fairly clear: pitching, pitching and more pitching. But a power-hitting right-handed bat might be nice, too.

Management’s top priority, however, will undoubtedly be upgrading the starting rotation. Next to that will likely include fortifying the back end of the bullpen, especially with Yimi García (ankle) currently on the IL for the second time this season. But, amidst an extreme sellers’ market, addressing one or both of those areas likely won’t come cheap.

As Toronto’s front office can attest from last season’s modest sell-off, even rental pitchers can cost a substantial haul of prospects, and this year’s market stands to be no different. In fact, it might be even more lucrative to become a seller in 2025 than in years past, given how many non-contenders have few impact players — mainly pitchers — to offer.

Needless to say, for Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins to raise the ceiling of this roster, it’ll probably come at the expense of leveraging a prospect system that’s improved significantly over the last several months, breaking free from its previous bottom-third ranking. But how aggressive should management be?

It’ll likely all depend on the cost versus return.

Top prospects Trey Yesavage and Arjun Nimmala are probably as untouchable as it gets. Does that mean there’s zero chance either of them or both gets moved? Not necessarily. To justify such a seismic trade, though, Toronto’s front office would likely be targeting an impact pitcher or hitter with considerable club control beyond ’25. Neither of those two should be traded for a rental. And if they are, well, that decision could haunt this organization for many, many years. Just ask the New York Mets if they could redo that 2021 Javier Báez deal, which sent Pete Crow-Armstrong to the Chicago Cubs.

The Blue Jays need a front-line starter at this year’s trade deadline, one capable of leading their rotation for several seasons beyond ’25. But that type of arm doesn’t appear to be available, with the likes of Freddy Peralta, Jacob deGrom and Joe Ryan unlikely to be traded this season. As such, that greatly reduces the odds of Yesavage or Nimmala being on the move.

So, which prospects might we see leveraged via trade?

Even without Yesavage or Nimmala, Toronto’s system still features plenty of intrigue — both on the position-player and pitching fronts.

There’s a considerable amount of young, controllable MLB-ready talent at their disposal on the hitting side. Some of which are currently with the big-league club, including Will Wagner, Joey Loperfido and Leo Jiménez. The next wave of that group resides at triple-A Buffalo, headlined by Alan Roden, Jonatan Clase and Orelvis Martinez (who’s in his final option year).

In terms of pitching prospects, major injuries to Ricky Tiedemann (targeted for a late-season return) and Jake Bloss (sidelined until 2026) have severely depleted the value of the Bisons’ rotation this season. With Khal Stephen joining Yesavage in New Hampshire, however, that talented duo, along with Juaron Watts-Brown and Kendry Rojas, has created a head-turning double-A quartet.

There’s also another wave of young starters emerging at high-A and single-A, featuring Fernando Perez, Gage Stanifer, Landen Maroudis and Johnny King. And they’ll be joined by Brandon Barriera, Toronto’s 2022 first-round selection, once he returns from his rehab assignment in the Florida Complex League after missing most of ’24 due to Tommy John surgery.

Compared to this time last year, the Blue Jays’ farm system is miles ahead of where most experts predicted it would be this season, and that development surge couldn’t have come at a more opportune time.

Part of threading the needle for Atkins will be ensuring the cupboards aren’t bare once the trade deadline passes, as they were following the franchise’s 2015 and ’16 playoff runs. At the same time, there’s also a legitimate chance to win the AL East for the first time in a decade, meaning the front office needs to be all-in on this season.

Locating that sweet spot will be the key here. Knowing which prospects to keep and which ones to trade isn’t always easy. More often than not, though, the Blue Jays have been on the right side of those deals in recent years. That means we probably shouldn’t expect them to move Yesavage or Nimmala.

But beyond those two, everyone else is likely up for grabs.