Despite the Toronto Blue Jays’ ascendant play over the last two months, it’s easy to find holes in their roster. 
Their 41-25 record since May 1st is first in the Major Leagues, and they sit two games up for the top spot in the American League East. Yet the Blue Jays have lagged in areas that serve as important indicators for success, like power numbers and starting pitching.  
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And for all the inane blustering about run differential, it has proven to be a better predictor of future record than, erm, current record, and Toronto’s plus-17 mark is fourth in the division. 
However, with the Blue Jays’ overall 55-41 record representing their highest win total at the all-star break in team history and plenty of positives to build off, they are going to buy at the July 31 trade deadline. When they do, top-end starting pitching should be the priority. 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
What’s the right approach for the Blue Jays at the trade deadline this season? <a href="https://t.co/1lVubNeSRD">pic.twitter.com/1lVubNeSRD</a>
&mdash; JayOnSC (@JayOnSC) <a href="https://twitter.com/JayOnSC/status/1943527522378846295?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 11, 2025</a></blockquote>
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Basketball executive Daryl Morey famously said, “If you’ve got even a five percent chance to win the title – and that group includes a very small number of teams every year – you’ve gotta be focused all on winning the title.” Well, right now the Blue Jays’ odds to win the World Series are at 4.7 per cent on FanGraphs. Round up, and that means, based on Morey’s logic, it’s time to go all in.  
So why is starting pitching Toronto’s greatest area of need as the final juncture to supplement the roster looms?  
Let&#8217;s break down what the Blue Jays&#8217; rotation has lacked so far and how adding an ace-type pitcher could set them up for success in the postseason.  
While meeting with reporters on June 30, general manager <a href="https://x.com/ShiDavidi/status/1939769442889539584">Ross Atkins identified pitching and a right-handed bat</a> as primary areas of need. While all contending teams look to add relievers and – despite Davis Schneider’s recent surge – a lefty masher would benefit the Blue Jays’ platoon heavy hitter group that ranks 19th in home runs and 18th in isolated slugging, the need for starters is the most glaring.  
Broadly, the 4.60 ERA that the Blue Jays have gotten from starting pitchers ranks 25th in the majors. Their 3.7 wins above replacement are tied for 26th. The 4.62 FIP and 97 pitching+ underpinning those numbers doesn’t indicate that there’s any bad luck driving those results either.  
It is fair to note that Toronto ran with four starters for the first couple of months of the season, one of whom was a struggling Bowden Francis, while the fifth spot was a revolving door until <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/back-end-toronto-blue-jays-rotation-slowly-coming-into-focus">Eric Lauer seized the job in June.</a>  Max Scherzer&#8217;s return has helped stabilize a bit of that hole made by Francis, but a veteran arm with an injury history is a tough risk to make. 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
“You could see [Mitch Keller] starting a postseason game… If they were to get Keller and [David] Bednar, it would start with [Arjun] Nimmala.”<a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@JeffPassan</a> on why the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Pirates</a> pitcher is a perfect fit in Toronto and what he would cost in a trade with <a href="https://twitter.com/SNJeffBlair?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SNJeffBlair</a> &amp; Kevin Barker. <a href="https://t.co/KjkguE24H5">pic.twitter.com/KjkguE24H5</a>
&mdash; Sportsnet 590 The FAN (@FAN590) <a href="https://twitter.com/FAN590/status/1942690265573032337?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 8, 2025</a></blockquote>
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But take a closer look at the Blue Jays’ top three starters, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt, who have been the picture of consistency for the club over the last three seasons, and cracks start to emerge.  
All three have average to below-average strikeout rates. Berrios’s team-leading 3.75 ERA is over-performing his 4.67 xERA by nearly an entire run. And the Blue Jays rank 24th in innings pitched by starters both for the entire season and since the rotation became more stable in June. This comes after the Blue Jays ranked in the top 10 in innings from their starters over the past three seasons. Gausman, Berrios, and Bassitt each rank top 10 in innings pitched over the previous four seasons as well. They have been remarkably durable, but have also accumulated a ton of mileage on their arms. In turn, the Blue Jays&#8217; bullpen is also in the top 10 in innings pitched. Adding a starter that can get deep into games could help alleviate some stress from Toronto&#8217;s relievers and save valuable bullets for the playoffs.
The Blue Jays&#8217; current top three are all dependable rotation arms that could comfortably start in a wildcard or division series. But do any of them stand out as a Game 1 starter in a playoff series?  None of them ranking in the top 25 in ERA, K-BB%, or FIP is a clear answer.
Given the state of their rotation and the opportunity they have in the AL East, the Blue Jays should be looking to add a top-end starter at the deadline. Names like Jacob deGrom and Joe Ryan headline the relatively thin list of ace-calibre arms potentially available. Blue Jays Nation will have more soon, breaking down potential targets.  
Alek Maonah also <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/blue-jays-alek-manoah-pitched-in-competitive-game-for-first-time-in-over-a-year">pitched in an FCL game for his first live action</a> during his recovery from major elbow surgery. He could be a candidate to augment Toronto’s rotation as early as mid-August if all goes well, but that&#8217;s a significant risk to take as well.
But one thing is certain, whether it comes internally or externally, the Blue Jays will need better performance from their rotation if they are going to win the division for the first time in a decade and stand a chance in the postseason.  
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Despite the Toronto Blue Jays’ ascendant play over the last two months, it’s easy to find holes in their roster. 

Their 41-25 record since May 1st is first in the Major Leagues, and they sit two games up for the top spot in the American League East. Yet the Blue Jays have lagged in areas that serve as important indicators for success, like power numbers and starting pitching.  
<div class="bam-inline-promotion" data-property-id="330" data-promotion-id="18983" data-context="“web-content-promocard&quot;"></div>
And for all the inane blustering about run differential, it has proven to be a better predictor of future record than, erm, current record, and Toronto’s plus-17 mark is fourth in the division. 

However, with the Blue Jays’ overall 55-41 record representing their highest win total at the all-star break in team history and plenty of positives to build off, they are going to buy at the July 31 trade deadline. When they do, top-end starting pitching should be the priority. 

https://twitter.com/JayOnSC/status/1943527522378846295

Basketball executive Daryl Morey famously said, “If you’ve got even a five percent chance to win the title – and that group includes a very small number of teams every year – you’ve gotta be focused all on winning the title.” Well, right now the Blue Jays’ odds to win the World Series are at 4.7 per cent on FanGraphs. Round up, and that means, based on Morey’s logic, it’s time to go all in.  

So why is starting pitching Toronto’s greatest area of need as the final juncture to supplement the roster looms?  

Let's break down what the Blue Jays' rotation has lacked so far and how adding an ace-type pitcher could set them up for success in the postseason.  

While meeting with reporters on June 30, general manager <a href="https://x.com/ShiDavidi/status/1939769442889539584">Ross Atkins identified pitching and a right-handed bat</a> as primary areas of need. While all contending teams look to add relievers and – despite Davis Schneider’s recent surge – a lefty masher would benefit the Blue Jays’ platoon heavy hitter group that ranks 19th in home runs and 18th in isolated slugging, the need for starters is the most glaring.  

Broadly, the 4.60 ERA that the Blue Jays have gotten from starting pitchers ranks 25th in the majors. Their 3.7 wins above replacement are tied for 26th. The 4.62 FIP and 97 pitching+ underpinning those numbers doesn’t indicate that there’s any bad luck driving those results either.  

It is fair to note that Toronto ran with four starters for the first couple of months of the season, one of whom was a struggling Bowden Francis, while the fifth spot was a revolving door until <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/back-end-toronto-blue-jays-rotation-slowly-coming-into-focus">Eric Lauer seized the job in June.</a>  Max Scherzer's return has helped stabilize a bit of that hole made by Francis, but a veteran arm with an injury history is a tough risk to make. 

https://twitter.com/FAN590/status/1942690265573032337

But take a closer look at the Blue Jays’ top three starters, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt, who have been the picture of consistency for the club over the last three seasons, and cracks start to emerge.  

All three have average to below-average strikeout rates. Berrios’s team-leading 3.75 ERA is over-performing his 4.67 xERA by nearly an entire run. And the Blue Jays rank 24th in innings pitched by starters both for the entire season and since the rotation became more stable in June. This comes after the Blue Jays ranked in the top 10 in innings from their starters over the past three seasons. Gausman, Berrios, and Bassitt each rank top 10 in innings pitched over the previous four seasons as well. They have been remarkably durable, but have also accumulated a ton of mileage on their arms. In turn, the Blue Jays' bullpen is also in the top 10 in innings pitched. Adding a starter that can get deep into games could help alleviate some stress from Toronto's relievers and save valuable bullets for the playoffs.

The Blue Jays' current top three are all dependable rotation arms that could comfortably start in a wildcard or division series. But do any of them stand out as a Game 1 starter in a playoff series?  None of them ranking in the top 25 in ERA, K-BB%, or FIP is a clear answer.

Given the state of their rotation and the opportunity they have in the AL East, the Blue Jays should be looking to add a top-end starter at the deadline. Names like Jacob deGrom and Joe Ryan headline the relatively thin list of ace-calibre arms potentially available. Blue Jays Nation will have more soon, breaking down potential targets.  

Alek Maonah also <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/blue-jays-alek-manoah-pitched-in-competitive-game-for-first-time-in-over-a-year">pitched in an FCL game for his first live action</a> during his recovery from major elbow surgery. He could be a candidate to augment Toronto’s rotation as early as mid-August if all goes well, but that's a significant risk to take as well.

But one thing is certain, whether it comes internally or externally, the Blue Jays will need better performance from their rotation if they are going to win the division for the first time in a decade and stand a chance in the postseason.  

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