As the Chicago White Sox arrive in Toronto on Friday, the Blue Jays are preparing to throw a Spencer Turnbull-led bullpen day. This has been the norm for their fifth rotation spot this season, but it could be the last one for a while.

For the first time in nearly two months, the Blue Jays are on the cusp of stabilizing the back end of their rotation.

Both Eric Lauer and Max Scherzer were dominant Wednesday, in an 8-1 trouncing of the Arizona Diamondbacks and a rehab outing for the Buffalo Bisons in Worcester, respectively. While the return to a consistent five-man rotation depends on Lauer continuing to deliver and Scherzer’s health, the surging Blue Jays appear well-positioned to ameliorate their greatest weakness.

Yet, the final spots in a rotation are often volatile. Lauer went to the KBO for a reset less than one year ago. Scherzer has made 10 starts since the beginning of 2024 and is one of the oldest active major leaguers at 40. They are far from guarantees. After enjoying a two-season run in which they used a total of 12 starters, the second fewest in the majors to the Washington Nationals, the Blue Jays’ use of seven different pitchers to either start or open games, while Scherzer has worked to recover from thumb inflammation, has been a harsh wake-up call. Bowden Francis’s struggles with the long ball (19 allowed, second in MLB) and with getting deep into games (1.128 opponent OPS third time through order) only compounded the issue. Francis now finds himself on the 15-day IL with a shoulder impingement.

With Scherzer on the verge of a return and Lauer appearing to have seized a rotation spot for the time being, the Blue Jays’ pitching staff is turning the page.

After turning in his most impressive start of the season, striking out eight and allowing only one run and five baserunners over 5.1 innings, it’s safe to say Lauer will continue to start going forward.

Initially signed to a minor-league deal during the offseason, the left-hander was thought of as fringe rotation depth. He was somewhere between No. 6 and No. 9 on the depth chart, alongside names like Easton Lucas, Jake Bloss and Adam Macko, and without a 40-man spot to boot.

After a couple of years as a dependable back-of-the-rotation arm with the Milwaukee Brewers, Lauer struggled with hard contact and command in 2023 as his velocity dropped significantly. After spending all of 2024 in the minors, he took an opportunity to pitch in Korea for the Kia Tigers during their playoff run.

After injuries to Bloss (UCL surgery), Macko (knee) and Scherzer, and Lucas not panning out, Lauer had his contract selected on April 30th and has taken full advantage of the opportunity. Over 10 appearances, he has pitched to a 2.29 ERA over 35.1 innings, striking out 36 batters and walking only 11. This includes four starts and five bulk-relief outings.

While it is improbable that the 30-year-old southpaw continues to perform at this level, and it’s reasonable to have some skepticism considering his up-and-down track record, there are also indicators that Lauer will be viable as a fifth starter.

He’s posting a career-best 26.1 per cent strikeout rate and walking a near league average 8.0 per cent of the batters he faces – his lowest mark since 2019. While his fastball velo has increased by a tick compared to 2023, his overall stuff has not returned to the same quality it was during his peak seasons with the Brewers. However, he’s making up for it by both throwing more strikes (53.9 per cent) and running a higher edge rate (45.4 per cent) – both career-highs. His ability to live more often within a baseball’s width of the strike zone’s borders has also helped Lauer miss more bats, as his 7.9 per cent barrel rate is his best since 2019 and solidly above average.

Given the results and some of the underlying peripherals, Lauer seems like a safe five-and-dive option for the time being. If he’s able to give anything more, that’s gravy.

Before getting into the more granular aspects of what Scherzer could provide Toronto’s rotation with performance-wise, we simply must acknowledge how cool it will be if a bona fide future Hall of Famer and all-time great is starting games for the Blue Jays.

It’s a big if, though. Scherzer has continually said he’s not “out of the woods” yet to reporters. His return to the Blue Jays rotation depends on the recovery from his most recent successful rehab outing with triple-A Buffalo and a bullpen that he’s scheduled to throw in Toronto Saturday.

Scherzer’s start with the Bisons was certainly encouraging; He struck out eight over 4 1/3 innings, allowing only one hit and two walks. Facing his final batter, he delivered a single pitch for a ball to reach his desired pitch count of 75 before exiting the game. Reports since then have been promising, with Scherzer experiencing expected soreness but no setbacks.

At the age of 40, nobody is expecting Scherzer to be the Cy Young contender he once was. But if he can provide steady innings and take some of the stress off the Blue Jays’ bullpen, that would be a big win for the team.

Given his recent track record and the process behind it, there’s reason to believe he can do just that. Over two seasons before joining the Blue Jays, Scherzer pitched to a 3.81 ERA over 196 innings with 214 strikeouts and 55 walks. His 4.29 FIP and .265 BABIP over that span suggest only slight luck on his part, if any. While his stuff has diminished – his Stuff+ has steadily declined for six consecutive seasons – his control and command has improved. After setting a career-best edge rate of 44 per cent in 2023 (since the stat was first tracked in 2017), Scherzer followed it up by finishing sixth in the majors with a 47.5 edge rate in 2024.

While it’s improbable that Scherzer pitches the additional 119 innings he would need to hit 3000 for his career this season with Toronto, pitching to roughly a 4.00 ERA, over say 90 innings, could contribute to plenty of wins for the Blue Jays. The three-time Cy Young winner could make 17 more starts this season if he returns against the Cleveland Guardians on Tuesday. Yet, health and father time are still barriers to this happening.

After all, everything comes to an end eventually, even the careers of legends.