The Toronto Blue Jays’ starting rotation has been treading water since day four of the 2025 season, dating back to March 29th. That’s the last time Max Scherzer pitched in a Blue Jays uniform, and the club has been cobbling it together ever since.

In 2023, the club’s starting rotation depth was also tested following Alek Manoah’s injury and subsequent struggles, but they unsuccessfully navigated that lack of starting depth. For a while, they only rolled with four starting pitchers, which took its toll on the rotation, while also adding extra support arms into the bullpen.

By the grace of good fortune, this year, the Blue Jays are keeping their heads above water until they await the return of Scherzer. His latest triple-A rehab start in Buffalo looked promising, and a bullpen session in Toronto on Saturday is the final box to check before he can return to the Jays next week in Cleveland.

It was trending that Scherzer’s return would spell the end of bullpen games for the Blue Jays, but Bowden Francis’s injury added a wrinkle to the plans. Up until then, Scherzer would have taken over the bullpen rotation spot.

The multi-headed monster of the fifth starter spot has seen the likes of Eric Lauer, Eason Lucas, Paxton Schultz, Jose Urena, Braydon Fisher and even Yariel Rodriguez all start games for the Blue Jays this year. Lauer has been a bright light for the Blue Jays in this position as of late, but the others haven’t seen success in that opener/fifth starter role this season.

But with a more traditional starting pitcher back in the fold with Scherzer, that could mean less reliance on multi-inning relievers in the Blue Jays’ bullpen. By process of elimination, Justin Bruihl will probably be removed from the 26-man roster upon Scherzer’s reinstatement.

Even if Scherzer is healthy enough to keep his footing in the starting rotation, there’s still the matter of Francis’ spot in the rotation, which will continue to be a bullpen day for the foreseeable future. With Lauer coming off a solid five-inning performance against the Diamondbacks this past Wednesday, the Blue Jays would hate to mess with a good thing. The reason Lauer has fared better in this role is his wealth of experience in the big leagues, with 116 big league starts until his belt since 2018. Urena had 154 career starts to his name, but was primarily used as a reliever since 2023. And Lucas barely got a cup of coffee in the big leagues before his short stint in the Blue Jays’ rotation.

All these plans hinge on how long Francis remains on the injured list. For now, he’s only on the 15-day IL, but I wonder if this is the beginning of a longer stint for Francis in the minors to help him sort out his mechanics, which have been off since spring training.

Not that teams should expect ace-like quality out of their fifth starter spot, but Francis hasn’t looked right all season. This scenario felt very similar to Yusei Kikuchi’s first season with the Blue Jays in 2022, when the team had no choice but to keep running Kikuchi out there every five days.

If Francis is back sooner rather than later, that likely eliminates the spot starter role for Lauer, even if he continues to give the Blue Jays half-decent numbers in that bullpen starter spot. For the time being, Spencer Turnbull is the club’s de facto multi-inning reliever. All his appearances thus far have been multi-inning stints, plus the Blue Jays built him up as a starter before activating him off the injured list, so Turnbull may be next in line to take a start or two in the rotation, which is being put to the test later today against the White Sox.

Until the Francis stuff gets sorted out (or perhaps Ross Atkins acquires another starting pitcher by trade), the Blue Jays should still plan to roll out their bullpen game every five days. That means Lauer and Turnbull should be reserved as piggyback starters for those days. But with most Francis starts as of late requiring a long bridge from the bullpen to the final out, at least John Schneider can deploy his relievers a little more strategically once he has at least four starting pitchers in the rotation. With Francis getting quick hooks as of late, it required some careful planning to bridge the gap.

Scherzer coming back gives a little more stability to the Blue Jays’ rotation and will hopefully be a little less taxing on Toronto’s bullpen.

Further complicating the matter slightly is that both Turnbull and Lauer are out of options. Unless either of them falls off a cliff, exposing them to waivers is unlikely, so their spots on the 26-man roster are safe for now. Erik Swanson’s recent DFA also bought some time for both Turnbull and Lauer. But so long as they aren’t struggling, their roster spot is secure.

The Blue Jays have been extremely lucky to paper over their fifth starter spot for the first three months of the season, but one wonders how much longer they can tempt fate. Adding depth to an already depleted starting rotation is extremely difficult, but the Blue Jays have hit on guys like Lauer to give the team a chance to win every five days.

Once Scherzer went down with his initial injury earlier this year, I didn’t expect to see him back until after the All-Star break. The fact that he should be back on the mound as early as next week is a pleasant surprise for the Blue Jays. The team should probably treat Francis’ return the same way; if he’s back before season’s end, that will be a surprise as well.

Francis still has one option year left, so even if he’s good to go after his rehab stint, the Blue Jays might opt to keep him in the minors to work out the kinks.

If anything, at least Scherzer coming back to Toronto’s starting rotation means there will be one fewer “TBD” on the Blue Jays’ probable starting pitcher charts.

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