The Toronto Blue Jays have a Bowden Francis problem.

Statistically speaking, Francis has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors this season — if not the worst — as he ranks 106th out of 109 qualified major league starters (min. 50 innings) in ERA (6.12). He also sits dead last among that group in FIP (6.90) and fWAR (-1.0) while leading the sport in home runs allowed (19).

If you’re a regular Baseball Savant observer, you’ll also know that Francis’ minus-18 pitching run value resides in the first percentile of the majors. For reference, the right-hander finished in the 86th percentile with a career-high 13 run value last season.

We’re now at a point where the 29-year-old hurler has made 13 starts, matching his total from all of 2024. But unlike his impressive down-the-stretch performance from a season ago, he hasn’t been able to minimize hard contact thus far, with his 50.8-per-cent hard-hit rate against positioned in the second percentile.

The biggest problem with Francis, though, is that he’s struggled to provide length for a Blue Jays rotation already without a viable fifth starter.

That wasn’t an issue out of the gate, as Francis went at least five innings in each of his first four starts — a feat he also accomplished in all 10 of his final starts to ’24. Over his last nine, however, he’s only made it out of the fifth inning twice and has failed to complete four in consecutive starts.

Many hoped that the 6-foot-5 righty would be able to build off his impressive bounce-back outing versus the Texas Rangers on May 27, where he logged five scoreless frames of three-hit, one-walk ball while striking out six — tying his season-high. But the opposite ensued in his next outing against the Philadelphia Phillies, who tagged him for seven runs (six earned) on as many hits — including a pair of home runs — across 1.2 innings, marking the shortest start of his career.

And he wasn’t much better in his most recent outing, allowing four runs on five hits — surrendering his 18th and 19th home runs of the season — and a career-high five walks to the Minnesota Twins before being lifted after 3.1 frames on Sunday.

Francis’ prolonged struggles have taken a major toll on the bullpen, as the Blue Jays have had to essentially piece together not one but two rotation spots lately. That type of workload, of course, isn’t sustainable long term. Neither was having those spots come up in consecutive order during each turn through the rotation. So, to help mitigate overworking the ‘pen in back-to-back games, the team recently shuffled its starters to align Kevin Gausman’s spot in between them.

Still, maneuvers like this are only a short-term fix.

Plus, given how unpredictable two of Toronto’s rotation spots have been, the remaining three of Gausman, José Berríos, and Chris Bassitt have needed to pitch deep into games almost every start to give the ‘pen a breather — which also isn’t sustainable. They’re due for a rough start from time to time, too.

This team desperately needs to find a tangible solution for its rotation problem. But they don’t exactly have any immediate answers rising to the surface. So, how should they proceed?

According to manager John Schneider, the current plan involves Francis keeping his spot in the rotation, putting him on track for a rematch against the Phillies on Saturday. But that doesn’t appear to be set in stone yet. Behind the scenes, alternatives are likely still being discussed amongst the Blue Jays’ brass.

With upcoming off days on Thursday and Monday, Toronto could skip Francis’ spot entirely, rolling out its top three starters in the series versus Philadelphia. That route would surely improve their chances of coming away with at least two of three. However, the team also has to weigh if it’s the right time to fire those bullets.

Gausman (34), Berríos (31) and Bassitt (36) aren’t spring chickens anymore. They each need to be carefully managed at this point in their careers. If it were September, and the Blue Jays were fighting for a playoff spot, then the decision to sacrifice extra rest would be much easier. But since it’s early June, it makes sense not to add to that trio’s plate any further and risk burning them out before a potential stretch run to October.

The reality is that this all comes back to the organization’s starting pitching depth, or lack thereof. If they had a viable arm waiting in triple-A, chances are they would’ve already made a change with Francis — who has one minor-league option remaining. But if they had one of those, he’d already be up with the big-league club as their fifth starter.

Max Scherzer, who’s tentatively scheduled to begin a triple-A rehab assignment Friday, could soon alter that situation. Until he does, though, that fifth spot will remain a mix of Eric Lauer and Spencer Turnbull moving forward. As for Francis’ job, there isn’t anyone currently threatening him in Buffalo.

Adam Macko, who’s already on the 40-man roster, should eventually get there, but he’s only made one triple-A start since returning from a rehab assignment. But it is worth noting that he’s lined up on the same schedule as Francis, so the Blue Jays could make that swap at some point soon.

For those wondering about top pitching prospect Trey Yesavage, there’s a small — but realistic — chance we see last summer’s 20th-overall selection in the majors this season. That didn’t seem even remotely possible a few weeks ago. However, even if his rapid accession through Toronto’s system continues and he explodes through New Hampshire and Buffalo, he probably won’t become an option until August or September at the earliest.

Alek Manoah isn’t coming to save the Blue Jays right now, either. The rehabbing hurler, who’s nearly 12 months removed from his UCL surgery, is progressing well in Dunedin but likely won’t be MLB-ready until late July or early August.

For now, the Blue Jays’ clearest, most sensible way forward is sticking with Francis. At least for the time being. All bets are off following his next start, though, especially if he’s knocked around by the Phillies’ lineup again.

Toronto could use an opener in front of Francis on Saturday, potentially Mason Fluharty or Brendon Little, to counteract some of Philadelphia’s left-handed batters at the top of the order — like Bryson Stott and Kyle Schwarber. But the bottom line is that Francis needs to perform better. Plain and simple.

As bleak as things are right now, all hope shouldn’t be lost for the former multi-inning reliever, who owns 26 career major league starts — 11 fewer than Pirates phenom Paul Skenes, who debuted in May ’24. He’s still learning how to be a starter at this level, and there does appear to be a path toward regaining his effectiveness. It just likely has to occur in triple-A rather than against major-league competition.

Without getting too deep into the weeds, one of the biggest hurdles Francis must overcome is correcting his command, both with his four-seamer — which plays best atop the strike zone — and side-to-side splitter. He also needs to become less predictable with each of his top two weapons, as opposing hitters have been more aggressive against his heater early in counts while laying off his off-speed offering deeper in at-bats.

More than anything, Francis must take a massive step forward with his splitter, which has been among the worst pitches in baseball per run value this season, with its minus-eight value ahead of only three other pitches: Gavin Williams’ four-seamer (-9), Byrse Wilson’s cutter (-9) and Grant Holmes’ four-seamer (-12).

Improving that offering would surely help Toronto’s No. 4 starter dramatically improve his results versus left-handed hitters, who have slashed .301/.370/.647 against him this season. They’re also responsible for 14 of his 19 home runs allowed — five of which have come via his splitter.

It’s hard to find many positives in a season that’s been so disappointing for Francis, especially considering how dominant he was towards the end of his third big-league campaign. He’s likely struggling with that reality more than anyone right now.

In the end, this is still a business. When you don’t perform up to expectations, there are consequences. In Francis’ case, while he’ll likely make his next start with the Blue Jays, a triple-A demotion appears all but inevitable in the days/weeks to come.