<p>As the clock continued ticking towards the 8:00 pm &#8216;hard&#8217; deadline on arbitration deadline day, there were just two Blue Jays players left standing without contracts: Alejandro Kirk and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.</p>
<p>Kirk got his deal done first (at least in the eyes of social media) and locked in a cool $4.6 million for the <a href="https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/1877510550269182055">upcoming season</a> but the jury was still out on if the Jays and Guerrero could avoid arbitration for the second straight season. Last winter, the two sides couldn&#8217;t agree on his salary for the 2024 campaign and a panel of arbitrators ultimately made the decision. Guerrero emerged the victor, <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39479960/vladimir-guerrero-jr-wins-record-199m-arbitration-jays">earning a $19.9 million salary</a> for the year and besting Toronto and their $18.05 million offering. Arbitration can be a gruelling process, as both sides fight for the upper hand and the business side of baseball can rear its ugly head (just ask Burnes and the Brewers) and avoiding the awkward table meeting is for the better.</p>
<p></p>
<p>Then the <a href="https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1877513341104541863">news</a> came trickling in—Guerrero and the Blue Jays had locked down a one-year deal at $29.6 million, the third-highest salary awarded in history through the arbitration process. MLB Trade Rumours predicted Guerrero earning $29.6 million, so the valuation seems to be in the right ballpark for the two sides. It also means the Jays won&#8217;t have to go through arbitration with any of their eligible players, which is a positive for the organization.</p>
<h2>Arbitration is avoided but there is still work to be done with Guerrero</h2>
<p>While this is a win at the surface, it is ultimately just the first domino to fall in what should be a busy month for the Blue Jays front office.</p>
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<p>Ross Atkins and co. have yet to make an impactful signing this winter outside of bringing back reliever <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/the-blue-jays-reportedly-sign-yimi-garcia-to-a-two-year-deal">Yimi Garcia into the fold</a>, with other areas of the roster still needing to be addressed. The club did plug the hole at second when they <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/blue-jays-to-acquire-andres-gimenez-in-trade-with-guardians">acquired Andres Gimenez</a>, who can also slide over to shortstop if Bo Bichette departs next winter, but the club has yet to address the power concerns that dogged the club last year and actually traded away one of their better bats from last season in Spencer Horwitz. The bullpen still lacks some firepower to get the job done and the club could use another starter in the mix who has some form of contract control past the 2026 campaign.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Blue Jays have avoided arbitration with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and agreed to a $28.5 million deal for the 2025 season, per <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ShiDavidi</a>. <a href="https://t.co/3KAGPacGUH">pic.twitter.com/3KAGPacGUH</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) <a href="https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1877513341104541863?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 10, 2025</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>One of the other areas the Jays need to address this offseason is locking down some of their core members, namely Guerrero Jr. The first baseman has been vocal about his want to stay in the city for the long haul and the Blue Jays are one organization that has yet to jump on the extension train with their homegrown talent. They have the seven-year pact with Jose Berrios under their belt but next winter, both Bichette and Guerrero are eligible for free agency for the first time in their respective careers. It&#8217;s a tough look for a club that continues to preach fielding a competitive squad within the AL East but has limited contract stability with their roster over the next two to three years, a notion that was exposed and noticed by free agents.</p>
<p>The writing on the wall appears to be that Bichette is likely heading elsewhere while Guerrero is the one to stay around if the two sides can land on solid ground. To add fuel to the fire, Guerrero listed off <a href="https://twitter.com/Gate14Pod/status/1871303937598607598/photo/1">his side of the proceedings</a> in an interview back in December, shedding some light on the conversations surrounding an extension and where his head was at with everything going on. He outlined that he did receive a contract offer this winter but it was lower than his expectations and that he has a number in mind that would make him sign right away if the Jays put it in writing, as well as some other information surrounding the move to first base, his mental well being over the past few seasons, and how he did not receive a contract offer after 2022 and 2023 while being presented with $150 million over seven seasons following his All-Star worthy campaign in 2021.</p>
<p>All of these notions and the interview in general swayed the favour towards the player, especially since the Blue Jays fan base continues to call for some action from a front office that loses favour as each day passes. Struggling to find success in the postseason is one thing but the club has not been able to lock down a premier free agent since 2022, which is a tough sight to see considering their success from 2020 through 2022 in finding talented players on the open market and rival AL East squads continuing to get better. Tack on swinging and missing on superstars Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto and the fan base continues to clamour for something to latch onto, especially since the Jays&#8217; tactic of casting a wide net in their free agency search has yielded them nothing but dismay from those who already cast aside the idea of any player signing with Toronto (even if the larger five-year sample size says otherwise).</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Avoiding arbitration with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a good thing for the Blue Jays. Shows they&#39;re able to get on the same page.</p>
<p>But just as exchanging filing numbers wouldn&#39;t have doomed the negotiations, this doesn&#39;t guarantee anything. This was the easy part. More work ahead.</p>
<p>&mdash; Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) <a href="https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/1877511238726369484?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 10, 2025</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>The biggest win the Blue Jays could do right now is extend at least one of their superstars, with Guerrero being the favoured player to keep around long-term. Not only does it provide some security that Toronto can hang onto one of their players, but it also shows interested parties that there is a player that the team can build around over the foreseeable future. Free agents don&#8217;t have to question who is going to be around or where the direction of the team appears to be &#8211; Guerrero will be on the right side of the diamond and launching the ball in the batter&#8217;s box at the Rogers Centre for at least 81 games each year.</p>
<h2>There should be no reason why Guerrero is not in a Blue Jays uniform for the next decade</h2>
<p>Baseball is a business at the end of the day and unless Guerrero&#8217;s number is astronomically out of the ballpark of reality, there is really no reason why the Jays and the Montreal-born slugger can&#8217;t find common ground to hash out a long-term deal. It&#8217;s going to cost ownership a pretty penny but that&#8217;s the price you have to pay to not only be competitive within the big leagues but also just the lumps that come with owning a professional baseball team. One of your top players who will be just 26 when he hits free agency is looking for a big payday and it&#8217;s going to take some serious cash to persuade him to test the open market, an idea that doesn&#8217;t bode well for the Blue Jays coming out on top at the end of the day.</p>
<p>At the end of the day, it&#8217;s a massive failure for this Blue Jays organization if they can&#8217;t find a way to extend Guerrero barring a stupid ask from the first baseman. Even if he is looking for something in the $400+ million area, which seems to be where the rumours are heading, the benefits of having him in the fold and on the roster for the next decade-plus outweigh the potential risks that come with a deal that&#8217;s going to be insured anyway. There will always be risk in a deal of this magnitude but if the Jays want to field a competitive team within a stacked AL East division, then it&#8217;s a risk they have to consider making. To choose otherwise is just asinine and should result in a change in leadership if that is the case, which Jays fans will gladly accept at this point.</p>
<p>The deadline for an extension between the two parties is the first day of players reporting to Spring Training in Dunedin, at least in the eyes of Guerrero. Should that day come and go without a smiling photo of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signing a thick contract document, then this organization has failed miserably to live up to the one expectation they set heading into the winter: fielding a competitive team.</p>
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As the clock continued ticking towards the 8:00 pm 'hard' deadline on arbitration deadline day, there were just two Blue Jays players left standing without contracts: Alejandro Kirk and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Kirk got his deal done first (at least in the eyes of social media) and locked in a cool $4.6 million for the <a href="https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/1877510550269182055">upcoming season</a> but the jury was still out on if the Jays and Guerrero could avoid arbitration for the second straight season. Last winter, the two sides couldn't agree on his salary for the 2024 campaign and a panel of arbitrators ultimately made the decision. Guerrero emerged the victor, <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39479960/vladimir-guerrero-jr-wins-record-199m-arbitration-jays">earning a $19.9 million salary</a> for the year and besting Toronto and their $18.05 million offering. Arbitration can be a gruelling process, as both sides fight for the upper hand and the business side of baseball can rear its ugly head (just ask Burnes and the Brewers) and avoiding the awkward table meeting is for the better.



Then the <a href="https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1877513341104541863">news</a> came trickling in—Guerrero and the Blue Jays had locked down a one-year deal at $29.6 million, the third-highest salary awarded in history through the arbitration process. MLB Trade Rumours predicted Guerrero earning $29.6 million, so the valuation seems to be in the right ballpark for the two sides. It also means the Jays won't have to go through arbitration with any of their eligible players, which is a positive for the organization.
<h2>Arbitration is avoided but there is still work to be done with Guerrero</h2>
While this is a win at the surface, it is ultimately just the first domino to fall in what should be a busy month for the Blue Jays front office.
<div class="bam-inline-promotion-block" data-max-length="2" data-placement-id="2110" data-context="web-content-promocard" data-property-id="330"></div>
Ross Atkins and co. have yet to make an impactful signing this winter outside of bringing back reliever <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/the-blue-jays-reportedly-sign-yimi-garcia-to-a-two-year-deal">Yimi Garcia into the fold</a>, with other areas of the roster still needing to be addressed. The club did plug the hole at second when they <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/news/blue-jays-to-acquire-andres-gimenez-in-trade-with-guardians">acquired Andres Gimenez</a>, who can also slide over to shortstop if Bo Bichette departs next winter, but the club has yet to address the power concerns that dogged the club last year and actually traded away one of their better bats from last season in Spencer Horwitz. The bullpen still lacks some firepower to get the job done and the club could use another starter in the mix who has some form of contract control past the 2026 campaign.

https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1877513341104541863

One of the other areas the Jays need to address this offseason is locking down some of their core members, namely Guerrero Jr. The first baseman has been vocal about his want to stay in the city for the long haul and the Blue Jays are one organization that has yet to jump on the extension train with their homegrown talent. They have the seven-year pact with Jose Berrios under their belt but next winter, both Bichette and Guerrero are eligible for free agency for the first time in their respective careers. It's a tough look for a club that continues to preach fielding a competitive squad within the AL East but has limited contract stability with their roster over the next two to three years, a notion that was exposed and noticed by free agents.

The writing on the wall appears to be that Bichette is likely heading elsewhere while Guerrero is the one to stay around if the two sides can land on solid ground. To add fuel to the fire, Guerrero listed off <a href="https://twitter.com/Gate14Pod/status/1871303937598607598/photo/1">his side of the proceedings</a> in an interview back in December, shedding some light on the conversations surrounding an extension and where his head was at with everything going on. He outlined that he did receive a contract offer this winter but it was lower than his expectations and that he has a number in mind that would make him sign right away if the Jays put it in writing, as well as some other information surrounding the move to first base, his mental well being over the past few seasons, and how he did not receive a contract offer after 2022 and 2023 while being presented with $150 million over seven seasons following his All-Star worthy campaign in 2021.

All of these notions and the interview in general swayed the favour towards the player, especially since the Blue Jays fan base continues to call for some action from a front office that loses favour as each day passes. Struggling to find success in the postseason is one thing but the club has not been able to lock down a premier free agent since 2022, which is a tough sight to see considering their success from 2020 through 2022 in finding talented players on the open market and rival AL East squads continuing to get better. Tack on swinging and missing on superstars Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto and the fan base continues to clamour for something to latch onto, especially since the Jays' tactic of casting a wide net in their free agency search has yielded them nothing but dismay from those who already cast aside the idea of any player signing with Toronto (even if the larger five-year sample size says otherwise).

https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/1877511238726369484

The biggest win the Blue Jays could do right now is extend at least one of their superstars, with Guerrero being the favoured player to keep around long-term. Not only does it provide some security that Toronto can hang onto one of their players, but it also shows interested parties that there is a player that the team can build around over the foreseeable future. Free agents don't have to question who is going to be around or where the direction of the team appears to be - Guerrero will be on the right side of the diamond and launching the ball in the batter's box at the Rogers Centre for at least 81 games each year.
<h2>There should be no reason why Guerrero is not in a Blue Jays uniform for the next decade</h2>
Baseball is a business at the end of the day and unless Guerrero's number is astronomically out of the ballpark of reality, there is really no reason why the Jays and the Montreal-born slugger can't find common ground to hash out a long-term deal. It's going to cost ownership a pretty penny but that's the price you have to pay to not only be competitive within the big leagues but also just the lumps that come with owning a professional baseball team. One of your top players who will be just 26 when he hits free agency is looking for a big payday and it's going to take some serious cash to persuade him to test the open market, an idea that doesn't bode well for the Blue Jays coming out on top at the end of the day.

At the end of the day, it's a massive failure for this Blue Jays organization if they can't find a way to extend Guerrero barring a stupid ask from the first baseman. Even if he is looking for something in the $400+ million area, which seems to be where the rumours are heading, the benefits of having him in the fold and on the roster for the next decade-plus outweigh the potential risks that come with a deal that's going to be insured anyway. There will always be risk in a deal of this magnitude but if the Jays want to field a competitive team within a stacked AL East division, then it's a risk they have to consider making. To choose otherwise is just asinine and should result in a change in leadership if that is the case, which Jays fans will gladly accept at this point.

The deadline for an extension between the two parties is the first day of players reporting to Spring Training in Dunedin, at least in the eyes of Guerrero. Should that day come and go without a smiling photo of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signing a thick contract document, then this organization has failed miserably to live up to the one expectation they set heading into the winter: fielding a competitive team.

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Blue Jays avoid arbitration with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but now it’s their turn to swing for the fences

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