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Blue Jays: Comparing Anthony Santander’s actual contract against the early offseason projections
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Photo credit: © Tommy Gilligan - USA Today
Veronica Chung
Jan 26, 2025, 12:00 ESTUpdated: Jan 26, 2025, 08:48 EST
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To inject more power into the lineup, the Toronto Blue Jays signed Venezuelan outfielder Anthony Santander to a five-year, $92.5-million deal, with multiple deferrals and player options. Santander has an opt-out after the third season but the Jays can void that opt-out if they add a sixth season, which also increases the value of the deal from 2028 onward. 
With his career-high 44-home-run season with the Baltimore Orioles last year, the 30-year-old switch hitter will become a much-needed middle-of-the-order bat that the Blue Jays lacked in 2024. But his contract could turn into an overpay with a high risk in the long run, at least according to The Athletic.
So, what is the exact contract between Santander and Toronto and what were some predictions regarding this contract this offseason? We’re breaking down all the details below:

Anthony Santander’s contract with the Blue Jays

At face value, Santander’s five-year $92.5 million contract is worth $18.5 million per year if there weren’t any deferrals. However, Shi Davidi from Sportsnet reported that deferrals in his contract come to $68.6 million to decrease the present value of the contract through the five years, which factors into Toronto’s annual competitive balance tax (CBT). 
Below is a quick explainer from CBS News via Sportsnet of what Santander’s contract looks like for the next five years:
  • 2025: $13.5 million signing bonus ($6.75 million deferred) and $13.5 million salary ($10 million deferred)
  • 2026: $16.5 million salary ($10 million deferred)
  • 2027: $16.5 million salary ($10 million deferred)
  • 2028: $14.75 million salary ($10 million deferred)
  • 2029: $12.75 million salary ($10 million deferred)
  • 2030: $15 million club option or $5 million buyout (buyout is deferred)
This complicated deal also includes an opt-out after the 2027 season but the Blue Jays have the option to reject it by activating their team option, which raises the overall value of the deal to $110 million, including the sixth-year option. Should the Jays exercise this opt-out, Santander’s contract from 2028 also increased by a few million as well: 2028 to $17.25M, 2029 to $15.25M, and 2030 to $17.5M
In terms of bonuses in his contract, the Venezuelan outfielder would earn $150,000 for winning the AL MVP award, $125,000 for coming in second in the voting, $100,000 for third, $75,000 for fourth and $50,000 for fifth. Santander would be able to get $50,000 each for making the All-Star team, being voted World Series MVP, winning a Gold Glove award or winning a Silver Slugger Award. He would also earn $25,000 for League Championship Series MVP. 
Despite the complexity of the contract, Santander and the Blue Jays found some middle ground. Because of that, Toronto successfully manipulated the salary structure to hit below the CBT limit–deferrals saved the team more than $9 million per year–while the outfielder secured a contract that greatly increased his value and salary.

Looking at early offseason contract projections for Santander

After a stellar season in Baltimore and a three-year history of hitting 30+ home runs, contract projections from sources across the league valued Anthony Santander’s skill and potential contract value at quite a few different price points. 
Here are some of the notable projections with Santander’s contract forecasts:

Jim Bowden (The Athletic): 6 years, $142 million

Jim Bowden at The Athletic factored in Santander’s stats from the 2024 season for its contract prediction and ultimately believed that his offensive accomplishments in the batter’s box would help him earn a higher average annual salary overall. The publication cited his career-high 44 home runs, 103 RBIs and 91 runs scored as one of the reasons why he would be able to earn a much higher base salary than his $11.7 million salary with the Baltimore Orioles in the past. 
Bowden’s prediction set Santander’s yearly salary at around $23.6 million, which is higher than what the Blue Jays signed him to even if the contract featured zero deferrals. On the other hand, the predicted number of years was close as Santander’s deal sits at five years but the option makes it six, which would stand at $110 million – $32 million less than what Bowden was projecting.

Mark Feinsand (MLB): 5 years, $100 million 

The fascinating part about Feinsand’s projection of Santander is that the publication didn’t offer a definite number as a prediction. Rather, he opted to share ballpark predictions by comparing his contracts to Masataka Yoshida’s signing with the Boston Red Sox, George Springer’s signing with the Blue Jays and Nick Castellanos’ signing with the Philadelphia Phillies. 
While the publication argued that the Venezuela-born outfielder could sign a deal similar to Yoshida’s five-year, $90 million deal, it ultimately projected that Castellanos’ five-year, $100 million contract would be the closest number to Santander’s when he signed with a new team.
Interestingly, the piece also featured an MLB executive’s prediction that Santander, based on his stellar performance in 2024, is in a position to sign a long-term deal with an AAV of approximately $20 million.
By and large, Feinsand did predict the correct number of years with his five-year prediction (excluding the option). The AAV forecast is also close to Santander’s actual contract but one thing the publication didn’t expect is the deferrals and opt-outs. 

Sportrac: 5 years, $88.6 million

Spotrac posted the lowest number for Santander’s contract predictions, with his market value coming in at $17.7 million for the year and predicting a five-year contract. 
This may be due to the outfielder’s recent ramp-up before the 2024 season and shaky defensive metrics. However, the site did predict the number of years correctly for Santander’s deal and came closest to predicting the actual AAV if Santander did not receive any deferrals.
Spotrac didn’t mention any opt-outs, club options or deferrals in its predictions but the site has published a salary estimate that’s closest to Santander’s real-life contract with the Blue Jays.

Takeaways

It’s undeniable that Santander’s signing with the Blue Jays is a high-risk, high-reward strategy, certainly from the front office’s perspective. Nevertheless, this was a much-needed signing for Toronto as a contender aiming to compete again in the upcoming season after an unimpressive campaign in 2024. 
There is also a concern that the Venezuelan outfielder won’t be able to replicate his career-high records as he moves north of the border. According to MLB.com, his expected home run total for 2024 was roughly 36.6, indicating that his 44 home run record was over the expected value. 
Santander is going into the new season with a tough task on his shoulders: reviving the lost offence. He doesn’t get on base much but the hope is that he will end the power outage that plagued the Blue Jays for the past couple of seasons. 
In other words, Santander is the Blue Jays’ answer to bringing back someone like Teoscar Hernández. 
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