<p>Left-handed power hitters don&#8217;t grow on trees, and the Toronto Blue Jays know how rare a commodity they are. Sure, they have Daulton Varsho, but he isn&#8217;t quite the top of the order lefty threat the Blue Jays need to balance out their lineup.</p>
<p>They need a left-handed hitter who can not only hit for power but also get on base and hit for average, something they haven&#8217;t had since (checks notes) Michael Saunders in 2016. Yes, it&#8217;s been that long since the Blue Jays have had a solid left-handed power and on-base guy. Of course, Juan Soto would solve all those problems, but if the Blue Jays aren&#8217;t willing to shell out $600 or $700 million for Soto&#8217;s services, they&#8217;ll have to look elsewhere for left-handed power. And they might have to turn over quite a few stones before they find a candidate.</p>
<p>Someone who would&#8217;ve been a great trade acquisition a few years ago is now on the market as a free agent: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/keplema01.shtml">Max Kepler</a>. But after his down year and his history of injuries, does he make sense for the Blue Jays? Let&#8217;s explore the options and see if he&#8217;s a fit.</p>
<h2>Max Kepler in 2024</h2>
<p>Injuries hampered Kepler this past season as he spent two stints on the Twins&#8217; injured list. He missed 23 games in April due to a right knee contusion and the Twins shut him down at the end of the year with left patellar tendonitis. Kepler missed a total of 47 games on the IL in 2024.</p>
<p>In 105 games, he slashed .253/.302/.380, struck out 80 times, drew 20 walks and hit 8 home runs. Most concerning of all, his bat speed declined throughout the season, peaking at 72.8 MPH in May and ending at 68.3 MPH in September.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-large wp-image-80386" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-1024x576.jpeg" alt="" width="1024" height="576" srcset="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-1024x576.jpeg 1024w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-300x169.jpeg 300w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-768x432.jpeg 768w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-2048x1152.jpeg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></p>
<p>Another red flag for Kepler was his hard-hit rate plummeted 11.1% year over year. He chased more, whiffed more, his exit velocity was down, and his walk rate decreased. Most of his metrics took a step backward in 2024, which explains his poor offensive showing.</p>
<p>He&#8217;s a solid defender in right field with a great arm, he has the potential to hit 30+ bombs in a season, but he hasn&#8217;t played more than 134 games in a regular season dating back to 2019. When Kepler is healthy, he&#8217;s contributing, but missing almost one-third of the season makes it difficult to game plan.</p>
<p>The 31-year-old has proven he can drive the ball with authority, but he&#8217;s almost <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter&amp;year=2023&amp;position=&amp;team=&amp;min=q&amp;sort=exit_velocity_avg&amp;sortDir=desc">two years</a> removed from having the 25th-best average exit velocity in the game. When healthy, there&#8217;s reason to believe he can swap those Baseball Savant percentile blues for stacks of red again.</p>
<h2>Kepler&#8217;s contract</h2>
<p>Kepler earned $10 million in 2024 during the final year of his 5-year/$35 million contract with the Minnesota Twins. The Twins structured the contract so his highest AAV was at the back end of the deal, but even with only playing 105 games in 2024, he lived up to this deal posting 8.6 fWAR at a value of $69.3 million, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/max-kepler/12144/stats?position=OF">according to FanGraphs</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/16101/max-kepler">Spotrac</a> puts Kepler&#8217;s market value at $10.6 million annually, with a market value contract of 3 years at $31.76 million total. The AAV feels accurate, but it&#8217;s hard to imagine the left-hander landing a three-year deal. Something more like a pillow contract or a two-year contract would be more palatable with maybe a player or team option thrown in as well.</p>
<h2>Is Kepler a fit for the Blue Jays?</h2>
<p>As a complementary piece, Kepler could slot in on the Blue Jays, but it would take some reconfiguring on the diamond. Left field is one of the biggest opportunities for improvement on the field for the Blue Jays, but Kepler hasn’t played a lick of the position during his MLB career.</p>
<p>He can slide over to left field, but asking a guy entering his age-32 season to play the bulk of the campaign at a position he&#8217;s never played before would be a big ask. Plus, the Blue Jays have already experimented with playing guys out of position to mixed results.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">That ball just Kep going! <a href="https://t.co/VYaNfIMdPX">pic.twitter.com/VYaNfIMdPX</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Minnesota Twins (@Twins) <a href="https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1823532910793646137?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 14, 2024</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Right field is Kepler&#8217;s native position, which means Springer would need to slide over to DH, or the Blue Jays would need to get out of Springer&#8217;s contract. The Springer thing is a different subject altogether, but maximizing Kepler&#8217;s output on this roster as an everyday outfielder would require a roster subtraction of some kind.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s a chance the Blue Jays could bring Kepler aboard as their primary DH, but as a plus defender in right field, Kepler likely wants to continue to build his value as an everyday right fielder. The Blue Jays would love to add some left-handed thump to their lineup, but Soto, Anthony Santander, Joc Pederson and Jesse Winker also hit from the left side and had a better 2024 than Kepler.</p>
<p>Maybe if a lot of plans fall through for the Blue Jays, Kepler could fit in on this team as a finishing piece, but Toronto should aim higher before settling on a player of his calibre.</p>


Left-handed power hitters don't grow on trees, and the Toronto Blue Jays know how rare a commodity they are. Sure, they have Daulton Varsho, but he isn't quite the top of the order lefty threat the Blue Jays need to balance out their lineup.

They need a left-handed hitter who can not only hit for power but also get on base and hit for average, something they haven't had since (checks notes) Michael Saunders in 2016. Yes, it's been that long since the Blue Jays have had a solid left-handed power and on-base guy. Of course, Juan Soto would solve all those problems, but if the Blue Jays aren't willing to shell out $600 or $700 million for Soto's services, they'll have to look elsewhere for left-handed power. And they might have to turn over quite a few stones before they find a candidate.

Someone who would've been a great trade acquisition a few years ago is now on the market as a free agent: <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/keplema01.shtml">Max Kepler</a>. But after his down year and his history of injuries, does he make sense for the Blue Jays? Let's explore the options and see if he's a fit.
<h2>Max Kepler in 2024</h2>
Injuries hampered Kepler this past season as he spent two stints on the Twins' injured list. He missed 23 games in April due to a right knee contusion and the Twins shut him down at the end of the year with left patellar tendonitis. Kepler missed a total of 47 games on the IL in 2024.

In 105 games, he slashed .253/.302/.380, struck out 80 times, drew 20 walks and hit 8 home runs. Most concerning of all, his bat speed declined throughout the season, peaking at 72.8 MPH in May and ending at 68.3 MPH in September.

<img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-80386" src="https://publish.bluejaysnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2024/11/chart-1024x576.jpeg" alt="" width="1024" height="576" />

Another red flag for Kepler was his hard-hit rate plummeted 11.1% year over year. He chased more, whiffed more, his exit velocity was down, and his walk rate decreased. Most of his metrics took a step backward in 2024, which explains his poor offensive showing.

He's a solid defender in right field with a great arm, he has the potential to hit 30+ bombs in a season, but he hasn't played more than 134 games in a regular season dating back to 2019. When Kepler is healthy, he's contributing, but missing almost one-third of the season makes it difficult to game plan.

The 31-year-old has proven he can drive the ball with authority, but he's almost <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter&amp;year=2023&amp;position=&amp;team=&amp;min=q&amp;sort=exit_velocity_avg&amp;sortDir=desc">two years</a> removed from having the 25th-best average exit velocity in the game. When healthy, there's reason to believe he can swap those Baseball Savant percentile blues for stacks of red again.
<h2>Kepler's contract</h2>
Kepler earned $10 million in 2024 during the final year of his 5-year/$35 million contract with the Minnesota Twins. The Twins structured the contract so his highest AAV was at the back end of the deal, but even with only playing 105 games in 2024, he lived up to this deal posting 8.6 fWAR at a value of $69.3 million, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/players/max-kepler/12144/stats?position=OF">according to FanGraphs</a>.

<a href="https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/16101/max-kepler">Spotrac</a> puts Kepler's market value at $10.6 million annually, with a market value contract of 3 years at $31.76 million total. The AAV feels accurate, but it's hard to imagine the left-hander landing a three-year deal. Something more like a pillow contract or a two-year contract would be more palatable with maybe a player or team option thrown in as well.
<h2>Is Kepler a fit for the Blue Jays?</h2>
As a complementary piece, Kepler could slot in on the Blue Jays, but it would take some reconfiguring on the diamond. Left field is one of the biggest opportunities for improvement on the field for the Blue Jays, but Kepler hasn’t played a lick of the position during his MLB career.

He can slide over to left field, but asking a guy entering his age-32 season to play the bulk of the campaign at a position he's never played before would be a big ask. Plus, the Blue Jays have already experimented with playing guys out of position to mixed results.

https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1823532910793646137

Right field is Kepler's native position, which means Springer would need to slide over to DH, or the Blue Jays would need to get out of Springer's contract. The Springer thing is a different subject altogether, but maximizing Kepler's output on this roster as an everyday outfielder would require a roster subtraction of some kind.

There's a chance the Blue Jays could bring Kepler aboard as their primary DH, but as a plus defender in right field, Kepler likely wants to continue to build his value as an everyday right fielder. The Blue Jays would love to add some left-handed thump to their lineup, but Soto, Anthony Santander, Joc Pederson and Jesse Winker also hit from the left side and had a better 2024 than Kepler.

Maybe if a lot of plans fall through for the Blue Jays, Kepler could fit in on this team as a finishing piece, but Toronto should aim higher before settling on a player of his calibre.

Free Agent Profile: Max Kepler is another lefty power bat the Blue Jays could pursue this offseason

Recent articles from Ian Hunter

Breaking News