Blue Jays: Examining the Mariners pitching probables for the weekend series
Photo credit: © Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images
The Blue Jays are coming off a series win against a depleted Atlanta Braves squad. After dropping the opener, the Jays rattled off back-to-back wins off frontline starters Spencer Schwellenbach and Spencer Strider, the latter of whom was making his first Major League start since undergoing surgery on his elbow last April.
From a pitching standpoint, it doesn’t get any easier this weekend as the Jays are set to face off against the Seattle Mariners, who boast arguably the best pitching staff in the entire sport and will be throwing out three ace-calibre arms against Toronto. Here’s a preview of what each of these starters will bring to the table.
Bryan Woo, RHP
Let’s get one thing straight: Bryan Woo is elite.
Since he debuted in 2023, Woo has been amongst the elite at hard contact suppression. His fastball is truly an outlier, averaging around 17.1 inches of IVB and an extremely flat VAA (-3.6). In other words, his fastball gives off the illusion that it’s “rising” and is nearly unhittable at the top of the zone. His main secondary offering is a hard gyro-type slider that’s been unhittable in the early going. He hasn’t allowed a single hit off of it yet, and it boasts a .202 expected batting average against. He will be matched up against Bowden Francis in the series opener on Friday night.
The Blue Jays haven’t hit many home runs to start the year, and Woo rarely gives up any, so hopefully they can have the one big inning, stringing some hits together and put up a crooked number. So far this season, he has authored a 2.84 ERA through three starts with six earned runs compared to 18 strikeouts
Luis Castillo, RHP
The middle game on Saturday will feature the man who shut out the Blue Jays in game one of the 2022 Wild Card series over 7 2/3 brilliant innings.
Luis Castillo hasn’t been that same guy thus far in 2025, however. He’s struggled to start the year (4.22 ERA and 20 hits allowed through 21 1/3 innings) and has seen a steep decline in his swing and miss thus far as he sits with a 32nd percentile whiff rate, down substantially from his 52nd percentile mark last year.
His 4-seamer continues to yield good results, but his secondaries have completely plummeted, especially his bread-and-butter sinker, which has gotten torched and isn’t inducing any whiffs at all (17.9% whiff rate). A chance to pitch in a controlled climate environment may be exactly what Castillo needs, and we’ll see if that’s the case when he matches up against José Berríos on Saturday in the middle game of this three-game set.
Logan Gilbert, RHP
Speaking of aces, here comes Logan Gilbert on Sunday. Fresh off the best year of his career, where he put up a 3.23 ERA/3.14 xERA/3.11 FIP/4.1 fWAR season, Gilbert is off to an even better start in 2025.
In his first 22 2/3 innings, Gilbert has registered a 2.38 ERA backed with a 2.19 expected ERA, and a FIP of 2.44. His WHIP sits at a comical 0.66 while his 38.1% strikeout rate and 4.8% walk rate are both frankly demonic. Gilbert’s pitch mix includes a 4-seam fastball, slider, splitter, and curveball. The splitter, in particular, is a devastating pitch; its early returns include a .038 expected batting average, .077 expected slug, and .035 expected weighted on base average, and a 52.7% whiff rate, making it truly an unhittable offering.
Gilbert will be matched up against Easton Lucas on Sunday afternoon, making it a clear disadvantage on paper for the Blue Jays, but that’s why the games are still played on the field, and Lucas and the Jays did just come out on top in a matchup against Garrett Crochet.
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