Considering the Toronto Blue Jays are in the thick of a postseason run this September, it’s easy to see why fans aren’t looking ahead to the 2026 season. This isn’t like last year when the Jays threw in the towel and packed things up early in preparation for the coming year ahead, letting the prospects and younger players finish the campaign at the big league level.

However, the Jays’ farm system has made considerable leaps this season, and in the interest of discussing something a bit different than the current bullpen situation, let’s take a look at the projected 2026 rotation.

Following the 2025 season, the Jays will have Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt slated to hit the open market, as well as infielder Bo Bichette and reliever Seranthony Dominguez. Bichette is the biggest name of the group, but losing Scherzer and Bassitt to free agency does create a sizeable hole in the Jays’ rotation for next season and beyond. Bieber gets the asterisk because he has a player option for the 2026 season worth $16 million, and if he continues to shine down the stretch and helps provide some quality postseason outings that fans are hoping for, he could opt out for a larger paycheck this winter.

Regardless of whether Bieber stays or not, there will be some action for spots in the rotation for the 2026 season. This gets even more hectic following that season, as Bieber hits free agency if he opts in, Gausman is slated for free agency as well, and Berrios has a player option he can exercise as well to hit the open market. Potentially, if things go really off the tracks, all five starters could be gone in two years.

Sticking with the 2026 slate, this would have seen like an emergency for the Jays had it not been for the mass improvements throughout the farm system this year. With these jumps, the Jays’ front office felt comfortable moving some arms at the deadline to help with the current playoff push, sending Khal Stephen, Kendry Rojas, and Juaron Watts-Brown to other organizations, and leaving the current group alone.

Let’s assume Bieber stays, and there are two spots open to begin next season (without any free agent adds). The potential names in the mix include:

That’s a good mix for the Jays, especially since having an arm or two making far less than Gausman and Berrios helps even out the salary cap, which is already sitting at $193 million per Spotrac when you include Bieber’s opt-in.

Looking at the current crop, there are a few names we can put to the side for now.

I mention Perez, Rogers, and Stanifer because they are names that are more in the mix for later in the season if needed, as each arm is currently in double-A and likely will need some seasoning in triple-A before they are looking at the big league stage. Anything can happen in spring training, but I feel like the Jays won’t rush these three and see how each fares in Buffalo, whether it’s to finish this season (minus Stanifer, who was just promoted) or begin next year. Another name I would put to the side is Bloss, who likely starts the campaign on the shelf while he recovers from Tommy John surgery. He would feel more on the Manoah track and be ready towards the All-Star break.

That leaves Macko, Tiedemann, Francis, Estrada, Yesavage, Lauer, and Manoah. All six would likely be vying for a spot come spring, and this likely will see some stiff competition to start the new campaign, an idea that I am not against. I will make an argument that Tiedemann likely needs to get some more reps in triple-A, considering he is coming off Tommy John as well and didn’t get into a slate of games similar to Manoah, but I can also see a fair argument to be made that if he shoves in Dunedin next spring, he may earn the spot.

I wouldn’t guarantee any of these names a rotation spot, especially since we have seen such fluctuation from the likes of Manoah and Francis over the years when healthy. The Jays also have Yesavage in the mix, who skyrocketed his way through the minors this season, and fans are already calling for him to come save the bullpen this September. While that may be a stretch, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that he sees his name pencilled in to the Opening Day roster next year.

The one wild card in this mix seems to be Eric Lauer, who likely would be in the Jays’ rotation right now had the Jays not added Bieber at the trade deadline. The left-hander has been one of the bright spots for Toronto this season, being asked to wear multiple hats and finding success at the big league level. Spotrac has him going through his last year of arbitration this winter, so he’s going to be in the mix for at least another season, and he could also find himself in the rotation picture come spring. Easton Lucas was in this same area to begin the year before he fell off the tracks, but he is another name in the mix if he sticks around this winter and doesn’t get DFA’d (same argument could be made for Estrada as well), considering he could be depth in Buffalo because he has options at his disposal.

Another interesting candidate is Adam Macko, who likely would have found himself in the Major Leagues this season when Francis and Scherzer were on the IL had he not been on the injured list himself to begin the year. Macko hasn’t found a ton of success in Buffalo this season, so unless he goes out next spring and finds a new level and outcompetes the likes of Manoah and co., he likely begins the new year in Buffalo. He, Estrada, Bloss, and Lucas are all on the 40-man roster, so they are protected this winter as well.

If I had to tier this, this would be where I sit:

Main Names:

Next in line:

If I had to pick two favourites, I think Manoah and Yesavage are going to get some headway to be the names pencilled in to begin the 2026 season. Just because they start there doesn’t mean their spots are guaranteed for the season, but to begin the year, they seem like the two that stick out the most, with Lauer waiting in the wings in the big leagues. Manoah has been throwing well in Triple-A and could see some action in the big leagues before the end of the year, although he may finish the season in Buffalo to continue starting games. Yesavage likely makes the team if he doesn’t implode in the spring.

This would push Lauer to the bullpen, where he would continue to work as the swingman between long-man and spot starter, while Francis heads back down to Buffalo to continue starting (he has one more option) and be stretched out. Lauer has no options, so he needs to stick around, hence why he heads to the pen unless he beats Yesavage or Manoah for a rotation spot. Francis could remain in the majors as a bullpen piece, but I would think the Jays want at least a couple of arms stretched out in Triple-A, Francis being one of them. If Tiedemann got some reps this fall, I would move him up a tier, but I think he begins next season with the Bisons alongside Macko, Estrada, and Lucas.

Is this a problem the Blue Jays have to deal with now?

No, especially since the bullpen is currently imploding and jeopardizing their lead in the AL East. But it’s a fun problem to have when some different internal options are banging on the door for reps in the big league rotation starting next year, and that’s without including any potential free agent adds this winter (such as Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and many others) or the return of Scherzer (unlikely) or Bassitt. Having some internal players find roster spots helps the books when the Jays have Bichette heading to free agency and for the first time in a while, the organization has some rotation players internally who can fit the bill.