logo
Blue Jays: What to expect out of Shane Bieber in 2026
alt
Photo credit: © Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Ben Wrixon
Jan 28, 2026, 12:00 ESTUpdated: Jan 28, 2026, 09:11 EST
Comments
The Toronto Blue Jays took a gamble on Shane Bieber last season that paid off — but will it still be a jackpot in 2026? 
Bieber, winner of the 2020 AL Cy Young Award, made just two starts in 2024 before undergoing Tommy John surgery. He was still rehabbing when the Blue Jays acquired him at the trade deadline from the Cleveland Guardians. They believed he could raise the ceiling of their starting rotation when he finally returned—and they were right. 
The right-hander pitched to a 3.57 ERA and 1.017 WHIP in seven starts down the stretch. He struck out nearly a batter per inning while keeping his walks under control. Bieber looked and performed like the pitcher the front office hoped they were acquiring in the deal. 
Bieber picking up his $16 million player option for 2026 was the real surprise. Many presumed he’d test the open market after a successful comeback, especially since he would be owed a $4 million buyout for his efforts. This led some to worry that perhaps Bieber wasn’t completely healthy. Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins amplified these concerns when he suggested the team would take things “a week at a time” with Bieber moving forward. 
So, with all that said, what can the Blue Jays actually expect out of Bieber in 2026?
Probably not the version of him who struck out 259 batters in 2019 or put up a 1.63 ERA during the COVID-shortened season. Most pitchers’ stats from that time are skewed due to the then-widespread use of sticky tack that MLB has since banned. That younger version of Bieber also averaged 94.1 mph on his fastball, compared to 92.6 mph in 2025. 
Bieber’s 2023 stats—a 3.80 ERA and 1.23 WHIP—feel like a more realistic projection for him, especially considering his xERA (4.51) and FIP (4.47) from last year. However, a proper offseason and spring training should help offset some of that implied regression. Bieber should be sharper now that he is further removed from his surgery. 
The Blue Jays will happily take an ERA around 4.00 from their third starter behind Dylan Cease and Kevin Gausman. The bigger question with Bieber for 2026 is how many innings he’ll actually pitch. 
Bieber threw 200 innings in 2022, but then just 128 the following year. He threw 59 innings total in 2025 between the regular season and the playoffs. It seems extremely unlikely that Bieber could get back to 200 innings again in 2026, but could he reach 150 or 160? That would probably be the best-case scenario for everyone. The Blue Jays could manage his workload carefully in April and May to ease him back into things. 
Overall, while Shane Bieber isn’t likely to recapture his Cy Young form in 2026, he should be a reliable, worthwhile member of the Blue Jays starting rotation as he looks to prove his case for a payout in free agency the following offseason.  

PRESENTED BY VIVID SEATS

Take $20 off your first Vivid Seats order of $200+ using promo code JAYSNATION (new customers only, $200 USD minimum before taxes & fees)

Featured

Editorials

Breaking News