Now that we know more about where the numbers landed between Vladimir Guerrero Jr and the Blue Jays this offseason, I can’t help but wonder if Guerrero’s camp will come to regret the path they’ve chosen.

Only time will tell of course, but after learning that the Blue Jays offered Guerrero Jr. contracts in the $450-$500 million range (some with deferrals that impact the “real-time” value of the number), I was initially frustrated that the front office didn’t just give in to get the deal done. I’ll admit, I have been one of those fans that have been vocal on social media about the importance of keeping their franchise face, and doing pretty much whatever it takes to make it happen. Even earlier this week, I wasn’t happy to learn that the numbers seemed to be close before talks broke apart.

However, now that I’ve had some time to think about it, and more specifically to try to wrap my head around how the Blue Jays could have put themselves in this position, I think I’m starting to understand it. No, I’m not defending Ross Atkins and his front office team, and I still think this long-term contract should have been signed some time over the previous few years, but hindsight is also 20/20. For now, all we can do is look at the situation in front of us.

When I narrow the lens like that, I’m starting to think that Vladdy’s camp may have taken a huge risk by not finding a way to get a deal done with the Blue Jays this off-season.

If $500 million in real-time dollars was the number needed to sacrifice the chance to hit the open market, that’s the choice that he and his agents are free to make. That said, I don’t know that there’s a guarantee that there will be $500 million waiting for him as a free agent next winter. The reality is, several variables are working against Guerrero Jr. landing that kind of contract.

Some of these variables are discussion points that we’ve heard throughout the winter, but that doesn’t make them any less relevant.

For example, there is a ceiling on the amount of money that most teams will spend for a first baseman, and we don’t have to look much further than how things worked out for Pete Alonso over the last six months. Granted, Alonso is older and not as much of a complete hitter as young Guerrero, but he’s still shown elite power throughout his six years in the big leagues. And yet, he had to settle for a two-year, $54 million deal to return to the Mets when all was said and done. I’m not suggesting that something like that will happen to Vladdy in a year from now, but what I am saying is that his position will limit the number of suitors who are willing to invest that kind of money on the cold corner, regardless of how elite the bat is. He’s essentially seeking to double the previous record contract for a first baseman, after all.

When I look across the league, I believe that the market for Guerrero Jr., at least in the $500 million range, will be pretty limited.

Teams like the Yankees, Phillies, Angels, Nationals, Giants, and maybe the Red Sox, joining the Blue Jays in the bidding, but I have a hard time extending the list beyond that, barring a surprise of course. Even the Red Sox might be somewhat handcuffed in the situation by their current roster after signing Alex Bregman to a 3-year/$120 million contract this winter, depending on what happens with his opt-out at the end of this season. With the presence of Rafael Devers, as well as young potential stars like Kristian Campbell and Tristan Casas and more, the Red Sox might not have anywhere to put him, even if they’ve been seen as a team that would pursue his services if Guerrero Jr. was ever to put on a different uniform.

There’s also the fact that Guerrero Jr. won’t be the only top-tier free agent available next winter, at least as long as Kyle Tucker doesn’t sign an extension with the Cubs before he also hits the open market. Tucker is arguably more well-rounded than Guerrero Jr. since he offers more value on the defensive side of the game, as well as a bit of speed on the base paths, and he’s still just 28 years old.

The outfielder averaged 5,4 bWAR from 2021-23 before missing half of last season due to injury. That said, he still managed to earn 4.7 bWAR over just 78 games last year while still with the Houston Astros. There’s a chance that some of the teams on the list above could prioritize a pursuit of Tucker over Guerrero Jr., which will only work against Vladdy and his agents.

It only takes one team to push the bidding where Guerrero Jr’s camp wants to see it, but I don’t anticipate they’ll have the benefit of the two biggest leverage chips they could ask for in the Dodgers and Mets.

Vladdy doesn’t fit in L.A. with Freddie Freeman at first base and Shohei Ohtani as their DH, unless they wanted to make him a full-time third baseman. As for the Mets, they could be a suitor in the end, but I think they’ll ultimately pass on the opportunity. After signing Juan Soto to the biggest contract in league history, they likely understand that their new-found star will eventually have to be a DH at some point into his 15-year contract. The same will likely be the case for Guerrero at some stage in his mid-late thirties, so committing to having them both on the roster for 14-15 years doesn’t make a lot of sense. Anything could happen with Steve Cohen’s chequebook at their disposal, but I do think they’ll pass if/when the time comes to make a bid on Guerrero.

The third reality is that Guerrero will need to have another elite season if he wants to earn a $500 million payday. Last season he was one of the best hitters in the game when he slashed .323/.396/.554 with 30 home runs and 103 RBI, good for 6.2 bWAR. If he can provide that kind of on-field value again in 2025, then $500 million could be well within his grasp. However, I wouldn’t say that he’s a lock to be a top-five MLB hitter this year, even if I’m rooting for it to happen. The truth is, he’s been “good” as much as he’s been “great” so far over his six seasons in the big leagues, and “good” isn’t going to land a 500 million dollar deal when you’re a first baseman.

2024–  .323/.396/.554, 30 HR, 103 RBI, 166 OPS+, 6.2 bWAR
2023–  .264/.345/.444, 26 HR, 94 RBI, 116 OPS+, 2.0 bWAR
2022–  .274/.339/.480, 32 HR, 97 RBI, 133 OPS+., 4.0 bWAR
2021–   .311/.401/.601, 48 HR, 111 RBI, 167 OPS+, 6.7 bWAR

At the risk of over-simplifying the situation, I would argue that the 2021 and 2024 version of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a chance to get the kind of contract he seeks. However, if he puts up the kind of numbers that he did from 2022-23, which are nothing to sneeze at either, I think it’ll give teams significant pause about a long-term deal.

All of that said, I fully recognize the risk that the Blue Jays have taken by letting things get to this point, and ultimately not caving to the demands of Guerrero Jr’s camp. They risk losing their best player and franchise face for nothing more than compensation picks, or in an even more depressing scenario, whatever they could get back for him before this year’s trade deadline passes, if the team isn’t in the playoff hunt come July. They risk a disgruntled fan base that may not be so keen to spend their hard-earned money to come to the newly renovated Rogers Centre, a project that cost them around $400 million as well. That risk could extend well beyond 2025 as they face the prospect of a potential rebuild in the next year or two.

I have to think those are the risks that Guerrero Jr’s camp is banking on, at least if he truly wants to return to the Blue Jays and spend his entire career in one uniform.

However, that decision comes with a pretty big risk of its own for the 26-year-old. There’s no doubt that he’ll be as motivated as he’s ever been, but this is one “bet on yourself” situation that could ultimately backfire. A year from now he’s going to be a very rich young man regardless of how this all plays out, but we’ll see if the gamble ultimately pays off for 4-time All-Star.

All Toronto Blue Jays odds are brought to you by MLB betting site Betway!