Bowden Francis is coming off the best two starts of his career, mowing through 14 innings and allowing just a single score en route to winning AL Player of the Week.

During his second stud performance, I fired off a tweet stating Francis’ recent surge could change the Blue Jays’ offseason plans, allowing the team to focus more on the bullpen and bats. I got more pushback on that take than I would’ve thought, so I wanted to break it down.

If Francis’ recent form holds, I think he’s got a real opportunity to alter Toronto’s winter plans. As things currently stand, the Jays’ potential rotation for next year looks something like this:

Maybe younger guys like Chad Dallas or Adam Macko could factor in, but it’s really the above six heading into 2024.

If you assume the Jays don’t just hand Bloss a rotation spot on Opening Day next year, without Francis in the fold, the Jays were going to need at least one more legit arm coming into next season. But, a good Francis changes the equation.

Even if the righty pitches a full season next year to just the 4.38 ERA he has overall this season (just under league average), Francis can be the Opening Day SP5 on this team. Since moving back to the rotation in early August, Francis has a 1.42 ERA in 19 innings, striking out 22 batters to just one walk. I get that I’m overreacting to just two starts, but Francis clearly has the upside of more than an SP5 — I think you’ve gotta go into next season banking on him in the rotation if he finishes out the year solid.

I get the argument that Gausman’s decreasing stuff and the inconsistencies of Rodriguez and Berríos are concerning. I get that people want multiple pitching signings to ‘compensate’ for those steps back. But, who gets bumped from the rotation if you sign two pitchers to big-ticket MLB contracts? You can’t start the season with seven guys in the rotation…

And, more importantly, how much more money can the Jays really drop into a rotation that already has over $70 million owed to it in 2025? The Jays would obviously be better next year if they signed Corbin Burnes and Max Fried — but there’s only so much money they can throw around.

With the Jays’ waning window, they basically need Gausman, Bassitt, and Berríos to be good next year — it’s almost not worth building in that many contingencies behind them at the cost of adding elsewhere. If the big-three aren’t big, the season’s probably shot anyway.

So, Francis’ emergence allows the Jays to add one more depth starting option (preferably trading for an optionable young arm or swing guy, so you’re not clogging up starting spots), and load up elsewhere. Augment the pitching depth a bit, hope on the guys you got, and fix the real issues of this team: bullpen and high-level bats.

As I (and Chris Bassitt) both recently broke down, the Jays need a lot of help in the bullpen and must support the lineup behind Vladimir Guerrero. On paper, the Jays’ rotation should be good enough to back a playoff team in 2025, if the other aspects of the team aren’t bottom-10 in baseball.

The Blue Jays will not enter 2025 as favourites to win the World Series or even make a playoff spot. They need to bet on upside, and pitching depth isn’t that bet. Francis’ strong recent play can help them put the chips where they might actually pay off.