For the Toronto Blue Jays to finish 2024 with a .500 record or better, they&#8217;ll need to pick up the pace over these final two-plus weeks. The good news? All five of their remaining series are against non-playoff opponents. 
This team sits at 69-78, nine games below .500, entering Friday&#8217;s series opener versus the St. Louis Cardinals. With 15 games left, they&#8217;ll have to finish no worse than 12-3 the rest of the way to escape this season at 81-81, breaking even on what&#8217;s been a toilsome and disappointing campaign.
Executing that type of run may seem like wishful thinking for a roster that&#8217;s underperformed and been derailed by injuries this season. And in some respects, that&#8217;s probably true. In this instance, however, the Blue Jays&#8217; favourable remaining schedule makes accomplishing this feat seem much more than a hopeful fantasy.
Of the five series left to play, they have three games each against the Cardinals, Rangers, Rays, Red Sox and Marlins &#8212; with three of those matchups taking place at Rogers Centre.
While Boston is the only team from that group still technically alive in the wild-card hunt, their chances of surging into a playoff spot appear greatly diminished, with <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/wc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FanGraphs placing their post-season odds at a measly 5.1 per cent</a> (as of Friday) despite only being 4.5 games out. Considering they&#8217;d have to leapfrog Detroit to sneak in, there&#8217;s a high probability they won&#8217;t have anything to play for when they visit Toronto during the final week of September.
Still, winning 12 of 15, regardless of the circumstances, is never an easy task. For the Blue Jays, they&#8217;d need to pull off at least two series sweeps in the same month, something they&#8217;ve only done once this season. But when did that transpire, you ask? Last month versus the Los Angeles Angels.
Their overall record doesn&#8217;t represent this, and neither does this month&#8217;s at 2-7, but the Blue Jays have been a different team post-trade deadline. The offence, specifically, will be what carries them if they make it back to .500.
Since Aug. 1, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=y&amp;type=8&amp;season=2024&amp;month=1000&amp;season1=2024&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0%2Cts&amp;startdate=2024-08-01&amp;enddate=2024-11-01&amp;sortcol=17&amp;sortdir=default&amp;pagenum=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Toronto&#8217;s lineup sits top 10 in the majors</a> in AVG (.251), OBP (.321), SLG (.433), wOBA (.326) and wRC+ (114) entering Friday&#8217;s slate. They&#8217;ve also crushed 46 home runs in that span, good for 13th in the sport.
Because of that offensive surge, the franchise&#8217;s position-player group hasn&#8217;t needed to primarily rely on its defensive upside as they did previously, dramatically increasing its overall value across the industry, ranking them tied for fifth in fWAR (7.2). Of the four teams ahead of them, three are currently in a playoff spot &#8212; the Phillies (7.4), Dodgers (8.2), Cubs (8.2) and D-backs (11.5).
The one X-factor in all this, though, is the Blue Jays&#8217; bullpen, which ranks 28th in fWAR (-0.7) since the start of August. While wins and losses aren&#8217;t always reflective of a pitcher&#8217;s performance, it&#8217;s also worth noting the club&#8217;s reliever corps is tied for the third-most losses (nine) among all 30 clubs in this span.
With all the bullpen churning that&#8217;s occurred over the last several weeks, handing the ball to anyone in the &#8216;pen &#8212; including Chad Green, who&#8217;s blown three saves and owns a whopping 22.85 ERA over his last five relief appearances &#8212; and trusting they&#8217;ll preserve a close lead is an uneasy feeling these days.
For many, though, getting back to .500 probably won&#8217;t mean much. It certainly won&#8217;t ease the pain of missing the playoffs. Or ease the tension ahead of another pivotal off-season for this organization.
Even so, for a young Blue Jays roster vying for 2025 jobs, having the goal of finishing 81-81 may provide an extra sense of meaning to these final few weeks.

For the Toronto Blue Jays to finish 2024 with a .500 record or better, they'll need to pick up the pace over these final two-plus weeks. The good news? All five of their remaining series are against non-playoff opponents. 

This team sits at 69-78, nine games below .500, entering Friday's series opener versus the St. Louis Cardinals. With 15 games left, they'll have to finish no worse than 12-3 the rest of the way to escape this season at 81-81, breaking even on what's been a toilsome and disappointing campaign.

Executing that type of run may seem like wishful thinking for a roster that's underperformed and been derailed by injuries this season. And in some respects, that's probably true. In this instance, however, the Blue Jays' favourable remaining schedule makes accomplishing this feat seem much more than a hopeful fantasy.

Of the five series left to play, they have three games each against the Cardinals, Rangers, Rays, Red Sox and Marlins -- with three of those matchups taking place at Rogers Centre.

While Boston is the only team from that group still technically alive in the wild-card hunt, their chances of surging into a playoff spot appear greatly diminished, with <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/wc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FanGraphs placing their post-season odds at a measly 5.1 per cent</a> (as of Friday) despite only being 4.5 games out. Considering they'd have to leapfrog Detroit to sneak in, there's a high probability they won't have anything to play for when they visit Toronto during the final week of September.

Still, winning 12 of 15, regardless of the circumstances, is never an easy task. For the Blue Jays, they'd need to pull off at least two series sweeps in the same month, something they've only done once this season. But when did that transpire, you ask? Last month versus the Los Angeles Angels.

Their overall record doesn't represent this, and neither does this month's at 2-7, but the Blue Jays have been a different team post-trade deadline. The offence, specifically, will be what carries them if they make it back to .500.

Since Aug. 1, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=y&amp;type=8&amp;season=2024&amp;month=1000&amp;season1=2024&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0%2Cts&amp;startdate=2024-08-01&amp;enddate=2024-11-01&amp;sortcol=17&amp;sortdir=default&amp;pagenum=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Toronto's lineup sits top 10 in the majors</a> in AVG (.251), OBP (.321), SLG (.433), wOBA (.326) and wRC+ (114) entering Friday's slate. They've also crushed 46 home runs in that span, good for 13th in the sport.

Because of that offensive surge, the franchise's position-player group hasn't needed to primarily rely on its defensive upside as they did previously, dramatically increasing its overall value across the industry, ranking them tied for fifth in fWAR (7.2). Of the four teams ahead of them, three are currently in a playoff spot -- the Phillies (7.4), Dodgers (8.2), Cubs (8.2) and D-backs (11.5).

The one X-factor in all this, though, is the Blue Jays' bullpen, which ranks 28th in fWAR (-0.7) since the start of August. While wins and losses aren't always reflective of a pitcher's performance, it's also worth noting the club's reliever corps is tied for the third-most losses (nine) among all 30 clubs in this span.

With all the bullpen churning that's occurred over the last several weeks, handing the ball to anyone in the 'pen -- including Chad Green, who's blown three saves and owns a whopping 22.85 ERA over his last five relief appearances -- and trusting they'll preserve a close lead is an uneasy feeling these days.

For many, though, getting back to .500 probably won't mean much. It certainly won't ease the pain of missing the playoffs. Or ease the tension ahead of another pivotal off-season for this organization.

Even so, for a young Blue Jays roster vying for 2025 jobs, having the goal of finishing 81-81 may provide an extra sense of meaning to these final few weeks.

Charting a potential path back to .500 for Blue Jays’ remaining ’24 schedule

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