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Blue Jays: Cody Ponce can outperform his projections in 2026
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Photo credit: © Mike Watters-Imagn Images
Ben Wrixon
Feb 26, 2026, 18:00 ESTUpdated: Feb 26, 2026, 12:27 EST
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The Toronto Blue Jays have a lot of pitchers to be excited about, and newcomer Cody Ponce is absolutely one of them. He’s returning to MLB as the reigning MVP of the KBO several years after flaming out—but how good can he actually be in 2026? 
The projections are certainly interesting. ZiPS projects Ponce to record a 4.20 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with an 8.88 K/9. Steamer is slightly more optimistic in projecting Ponce to work to a 3.90 ERA and 3.79 FIP, albeit with a near identical strikeout rate. 
The Blue Jays would probably be quite happy to get those numbers out of someone they’re paying just $10 million per year, which is a bargain in today’s contractual environment. However, it’s fair to wonder if Ponce could actually exceed those projections. 
His numbers in Korea last year with the Hanwha Eagles were outstanding. He worked to a 1.89 ERA and 0.94 WHIP with 252 strikeouts across 180 ⅔ innings pitched. Those are Paul Skenes-type stats that Ponce shouldn’t be expected to replicate in 2026. However, if these numbers suggest anything, it’s that Ponce has serious strikeout stuff. 
The best of his five pitches is his fastball, which sat at 96 mph during his Spring Training debut on Wednesday against the Detroit Tigers. He also mixed in some changeups, cutters, a slider, and a curveball during his scoreless inning. 
Back when Ponce last appeared in MLB in 2021, his four-seamer averaged just 93.2 mph — the velocity gains are real. He was rocked in the 38 ⅓ innings he threw that year, yet still struck out 36 batters with an impressive 32.4% chase rate. There was something there despite the overall lack of success. 
Ponce’s 96th-percentile extension likely had something to do with it. He stands six-foot-six. His fastball should play up an additional tick or two as he’s releasing the ball closer to home plate than most pitchers. Hitters might feel as if the 96 mph he throws now is coming at them even faster. 
None of this is to say Ponce will be the second coming of Nolan Ryan. MLB hitters are in a different stratosphere compared to those in the KBO. He’s got his work cut out for him, but he also has a solid foundation that absolutely lends itself to some legitimate upside. 
While Ponce’s ERA may very well end up where it’s been projected, don’t be surprised if he authors some truly dominant starts this season. He could end up with the second-best K/9 among all Blue Jays starters behind Dylan Cease. The potential is there — only time will tell what Ponce can do in 2026. 

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