We are witnessing the best stretch of Bowden Francis’ young major-league career, amidst the incredible run he’s been on since rejoining the Toronto Blue Jays’ starting rotation for a second time this season. But he likely wouldn’t be in this position if not for the continued development of his splitter.

That pitch remains a work in progress for Francis, who’s the reigning AL Player of the Week and owns a 2.19 ERA with 24 strikeouts over his previous four starts, two of which came against the Baltimore Orioles. However, the right-hander has certainly come a long way with it since the beginning of 2024.

Francis’ splitter was pretty much an afterthought coming out of spring training, at least in most cases, as he only threw it 19 times across his first five appearances (two starts) before being optioned to triple-A Buffalo amidst a rough opening month.

While it saw a slight uptick upon returning to the majors in June, the 28-year-old largely remained a two-pitch pitcher with his four-seamer and curveball, hoping to replicate his successful recipe from 2023. Those offerings ranked first and second among his arsenal in run value a season ago at plus-six and plus-five, respectively. But that hasn’t been the case this season.

Francis’ fastball has produced similar results, earning a plus-five run value thus far. His curveball, on the other hand, hasn’t looked the same. It has allowed a ton of damage in 2024, with opposing hitters posting a .326 AVG and .628 SLG against it. Though it’s endured a fair bit of bad luck, given its 20-per-cent hard-hit rate against, it still carries a minus-eight run value — tied for second-worst in the majors among qualified curveballs (min. 25 plate appearances).

Not only have the results been poor against the right-hander’s primary breaking ball, but so has the quality of its shape and movements. For example, it has averaged nearly a full inch less of vertical and horizontal break compared to last season. So, it’s been finishing higher in the strike zone and catching more of the plate than it did in ’23. And its spin rate has also averaged almost 300 fewer RPMs this season, down from 2,611.

Because of this decline, Francis has gradually reduced his curveball usage over the last few months, phasing it out to the point that he has nearly abandoned it this month.

Of the three starts Francis has made in August, two have included outings where he’s thrown three or fewer curveballs as he’s shifted his focus to another secondary weapon — his splitter, which has seen its usage trend in the opposite direction of late.

It hasn’t been as simple as Francis suddenly started throwing more splitters. It’s taken a lot of work to gain the comfort and confidence to do so. Part of that required a few different grip changes, learning his latest one while debriefing with teammate Chris Bassitt, as Sportsnet’s Blake Murphy detailed back in June.

Encouraging Francis to increase his splitter usage was another piece of the puzzle. The Blue Jays have witnessed quality performances from it, albeit in limited sample sizes, both from process and result standpoints, that have added intrigue to its potential.

In terms of Stuff+, a metric that features a league average of 100, the 6-foot-5 righty’s splitter has graded out slightly above that mark at 103, tied for 26th out of 241 big-league starters (min. 50 innings pitched) regarding that pitch. It’s also induced plenty of weak contact, with its .207 xwOBA positioned 13th among major-league pitchers who’ve logged at least 25 plate appearances with their splitter.

As the advanced data above suggests, Francis’ splitter had too much upside for it to be his third or fourth pitch. It deserved to be more than a show-me-type offering, and though it took some convincing, he’s now bought in.

That’s led to an output of 80 off-speed pitches over his last four starts — including a career-high 32 in his most recent outing against the Cubs — matching the total he set over his first 16 big-league appearances. And that’s had a massive impact on his recent success.

Throwing more splitters and fewer curveballs has led to additional swing-and-miss, with his off-speed weapon responsible for 10 of his 24 punchouts in four starts since rejoining Toronto’s rotation. Additionally, it’s allowed only two hits in 26 plate appearances while recording a .229 xwOBA and 37.5-per-cent hard-hit rate against — the second-lowest amongst his arsenal, behind only his newly-incorporated sinker (33.3 per cent).

The more Francis uses his splitter, the more effective he’s been this season. But it hasn’t been successful by itself. It has benefited from a high-rising four-seamer, which, when paired together, has seen him excel as a north-south pitcher — similar to Kevin Gausman and Erik Swanson.

Attacking the bottom third of the strike zone is key for Toronto’s five-pitch hurler, and it’s an area that he can expose even further with a fastball-splitter combo. By tunnelling those two off each other, helped by his 82nd-percentile pitch extension (6.8 feet), he can pitch to his strengths more consistently — at least, as long as he maintains the command of those offerings.

Francis is well on his way to proving he can be a capable big-league starting pitcher by primarily relying on his four-seamer and splitter, occasionally mixing in his slider, curveball and sinker. But, whether he can complement that duo with a third out-pitch — possibly through a resurgence with his curveball — could significantly impact his future outlook.

There is also additional work ahead for his off-speed pitch, which, despite producing a 30-per-cent whiff rate this month, has struggled to entice hitters to expand the strike zone beyond a measly 18.8-per-cent clip. Perhaps a solid starting point begins with its location, though, considering half of the 64 he’s thrown in August have landed inside the invisible rectangle.

One benefit to the Blue Jays being out of the playoff race is Francis should face very little pressure, if any, over these remaining six weeks. Now that he has a solid foundation to build off of, the best-case scenario is he finishes strong the rest of the way and heads into this off-season as part of the club’s starting pitching depth for next season.

Francis’ recent performance shouldn’t impact the front office’s desire to procure a back-end starter over the winter. However, it’s another reminder of why he earned the fifth starter’s role out of spring training this year and provides plenty of optimism regarding his chances of competing for a job in 2025.