Three days after the dust settled from Game 7 of the 2025 World Series, Shane Bieber picked up his player option for the 2026 season.

At first glance, his decision to run it back with the Toronto Blue Jays appeared to be based on the team’s nucleus of a World Series-contending team. Under the hood, Bieber was dealing with elbow inflammation, which came to light at the start of spring training.

It suddenly made sense why Bieber activated his $16-million player option at the end of the 2025 season rather than take a $4-million buyout. The motivation for his return to Toronto may have been less altruistic than initially thought, but whatever the reason, the veteran chose to extend his stay with the Blue Jays.

One year later, the club has some say in whether Bieber returns for a third season in a Blue Jays uniform. Instead of Bieber driving the bus on the decision, the club has a lengthy offseason (and potential lockout) to choose whether it makes sense to re-sign the 31-year-old.

Bieber said all the right things to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet earlier this week, indicating an interest in re-signing with the Blue Jays. That could be a bit of gamesmanship on Bieber’s part, but his desire to stay in Toronto for at least one more year seems genuine.

The question is, would the Blue Jays have him back?

Heading into 2026, it looked like Toronto had nothing but a wealth of starting pitching depth. That list quickly thinned out as injury news arose in spring training related to Bieber, Trey Yesavage, Bowden Francis, and José Berríos.

In addition, Cody Ponce suffered a freak season-ending injury 2.1 innings into his Blue Jays debut. Eight or nine starting pitching options dwindled to five or six, which was the catalyst for the Blue Jays re-signing Max Scherzer on a one-year deal.

The Blue Jays’ starting rotation landscape should be a little clearer for next season, whenever that happens. In theory, half of the depth chart won’t be dealing with undisclosed injuries, which should allow the Jays to game-plan a little better.

In classic 2026 Blue Jays fashion, once Bieber finally started making progress and showed signs of turning his season around, that’s when he suffered a shoulder injury. Had the Blue Jays made the playoffs, he was gearing up to return, so it seems like he should be fully healthy for the 2027 campaign.

With Jose Soriano acquired at the trade deadline, the Blue Jays’ starting pitching depth is in a much better place than it was, but it could still use some work. Francis and Berrios are still on the shelf and could contribute in some capacity, but Spencer Arrighetti is there as backfill, and Ricky Tiedemann could contribute to the bullpen again or graduate to the starting rotation if need be.

But it wouldn’t hurt to add another veteran arm to the depth chart just in case, which puts Bieber back in the mix. Part of the pitch process for the Blue Jays is selling Toronto and Canada as a destination, which they’ve already done a solid job of with Bieber. He’s familiar with the organization and the coaching and training staff.

If the Blue Jays want to raise the ceiling of potential for their starting rotation, there are much bigger fish on the free agent market. Tarik Skubal is far and away the best option, followed by Trevor Rogers, Sonny Gray, Kevin Gausman, and Michael King.

There are umpteen solid free agent options, so unless Bieber is willing to take some sort of incentive-laden pillow contract (similar to how the Blue Jays structured their latest deal with Scherzer), the Jays need to aim higher than Bieber on the free agent market.

The familiarity factor could be a consideration for both sides, but unless the Blue Jays swing and miss on the top or mid-tier starting pitching options, plunking down guaranteed money on a multi-year deal for Bieber is a risky play.

Most folks wouldn’t bat an eye at a one-year, $20-million contract for Bieber’s services, but once you get into multi-year territory, that’s where things get complicated.

Aside from a mid-season blip on July 28, when Bieber surrendered six walks and failed to escape the first inning, he looked solid in his next four starts before suffering his shoulder injury. He was brought in by the Blue Jays as a hired gun to finish out the 2025 campaign, but he has yet to put together a full season since 2022.

After a season in which the Blue Jays used 16 starting pitchers, loading up on depth is never a bad thing. But then comes the trouble of finding playing time for everyone. It’s hard to envision a scenario in which the Blue Jays jump the gun pre-lockout to secure a pitcher like Bieber when they still don’t have a clear picture of the rest of their starting pitching depth.

Most Blue Jays fans likely wouldn’t balk at the team re-signing Bieber today: he has big-league pedigree, he performed well down the stretch in September of 2025, and he logged important innings for the team during last year’s postseason run.

That’s not to say the Blue Jays should sit out the Bieber sweepstakes, but with other options out on the free agent market, it makes more sense to explore those options first, then circle back to Bieber if he’s still amenable to a show-me contract.