Whenever a contending team has an opportunity to add a top-tier starting pitcher, they usually jump at the chance. Even if the term or salary on the contract is larger or longer than the front office is comfortable with, it’s better to have the player than not.

The Toronto Blue Jays already abided by this philosophy once earlier this offseason by jumping the market to sign Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract. Even though they would still be a contender without Cease to anchor their rotation, the Blue Jays preferred the timeline where they inked MLB’s strikeout leader since 2019.

Framber Valdez doesn’t make sense for the Blue Jays unless …

Could lightning strike twice with the Blue Jays once again going off the board by signing Framber Valdez?

It’s the rumour that doesn’t seem to want to go away, as Jon Heyman was the latest to fan the flames following one of his latest posts on X, confirming the Blue Jays have interest in the 32-year-old free agent starter. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet also reported in January that the Blue Jays met with Valdez’s representatives at the winter meetings before signing Cease.

Chances are, this may be a leverage play by Valdez’s agent to drum up business just over a week before pitchers and catchers report. It will shock no one that Valdez is a Scott Boras client, but there are now two separate reports linking Valdez to the Blue Jays.

Valdez is projected anywhere from a 3.1 fWAR to 3.7 fWAR season in 2026, depending on your flavour of projection model, but he remains the best free agent starting pitcher on the market, which still includes Zac Gallen, Chris Bassitt, Justin Verlander, Zack Littell, Aaron Civale and Max Scherzer.

Typically, any team trying to win a World Series would move heaven and earth to add a 3-ish win pitcher to their starting rotation, but the fit on the Blue Jays makes little sense on paper.

Toronto is already eight starting pitchers deep heading into spring training, with Cease, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, Jose Berrios, Cody Ponce, Eric Lauer and Bowden Francis.

As currently constructed, the Blue Jays are projected to have the ninth-best starting rotation in MLB this season, and the fourth-best in the American League. Unless they have five aces in their back pocket, there’s always room for improvement.

Earlier this offseason, I made my case for hanging onto Berrios as starting pitching depth just in case things go sideways for the Blue Jays. You never want to subtract from the depth pool before opening day, but stacking starting pitchers could be an interesting strategy for the Blue Jays if they decide to take this approach and bring Valdez aboard.

On paper, it’s an unnatural fit for the Blue Jays to wedge Valdez into their crowded starting rotation picture. With eight arms and adding a potential ninth, there are only so many innings to go around. But we all know those eight pitchers on the Blue Jays depth chart won’t all stay healthy, or one or multiple pitchers might experience a setback (a la Francis in 2025).

Signing Valdez could be a long-term play for the Blue Jays — taking care of an important piece of business early, as Gausman and Bieber depart as free agents at the end of this season. Outside of Tarik Skubal, there are only a handful of desirable free agent starting pitchers on the market heading into 2027.

There are only two scenarios in which the Blue Jays can make this work by signing Valdez. The first is a bit of a Debbie Downer, but if Bieber’s uncertain status causes him to miss significant time (anything more than a few months), then that opens the door of opportunity for Valdez to take Bieber’s spot.

The fact that Ross Atkins’ last update on Bieber from back in December was that he was “week to week” doesn’t instill a ton of confidence in whether Bieber will be ready for spring training, let alone opening day. Bieber’s extremely curious opt-in also raised a few red flags about the forecast for his health.

For a team that had plenty of starting pitching depth, the Blue Jays were aggressive on the free agent front and wasted little time signing Cease and Ponce. Surely, the asking price on Valdez has come down significantly, perhaps to the point where the Blue Jays feel comfortable with a shorter-term deal.

Assuming Bieber is healthy, the other scenario that clears a path for Valdez to join the Blue Jays’ rotation is if Ponce moves into the bullpen. The team never declared whether Ponce would be used only as a starting pitcher, so there’s a chance he slides into the Lauer long relief/spot starter role on the club.

After Ponce’s dominance in Korea last year, the Blue Jays should afford him every opportunity to continue to start games, but if Valdez comes into the picture, apologies to Ponce, but Valdez is the better starting pitcher with the better track record.

All of this is assuming Berrios fails to reclaim his rotation spot. The Blue Jays shouldn’t cast him aside prematurely because anything could happen, but a move back to the bullpen seems likely for him in 2026.

And even though he’s coming into spring training camp as a 22-year-old rookie, the Blue Jays will give Yesavage plenty of runway in 2026. It’s presumptuous to assume he’ll continue to dominate like he did at the end of the 2025 regular season and into the playoffs, but Yesavage raised his stock so high that he shouldn’t have to compete for a starting rotation job.

Cease and Gausman should be the fixtures of the rotation, Bieber and Yesavage are wild cards, and both Ponce and Berrios can pitch in the rotation or in relief. All things considered, the Blue Jays still have some flexibility to add another starting pitcher like Valdez, but it’s only warranted if the team feels that move raises the ceiling of the starting rotation.

The controversy about Valdez seemingly throwing at his own catcher last year aside, Valdez is projected as a top-10 starting pitcher ahead of the 2026 season. If you can’t have an ace like Skubal or Paul Skenes, may as well hoard starting pitchers the next tier down and try to build an ace by aggregate.

That’s one way the Blue Jays could make this all work in 2026.

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