Examining impact of Anthony Santander’s significant salary deferrals
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Photo credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images
Thomas Hall
Jan 24, 2025, 14:30 ESTUpdated: Jan 24, 2025, 14:40 EST
As full details emerge, one major takeaway remains: the Toronto Blue Jays perfectly executed the Anthony Santander deal.
Adding the switch-hitting outfielder to the middle of Toronto’s batting order came at the cost of five guaranteed seasons. However, that meant acquiring one of baseball’s premier home-run hitters from last season at a price of less than $20 million per season, with his average annual value (pre-salary deferrals) coming in at $18.5 million.
But now that the details surrounding his deferrals have been reported, there’s the potential for Santander’s contract to become an even larger bargain for this franchise.
As Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reported Thursday, the Blue Jays have deferred $61.75 million of the $92.5 million from Santander’s five-year contract, providing the 30-year-old slugger with a present-day value of $68.6 million. Thus, it drops his AAV to roughly $13.7 million, nearly $5 million less than his original figure.
Santander’s contract includes a $13.5-million signing bonus, $6.75 million of which is deferred, as Davidi noted. He will also have $10 million in salary deferred each season through 2029, plus the $5 million from his buyout if the team declines his ’30 option valued at $15 million.
After deferrals, Santander will earn a base salary between $2.75 million and $6.5 million per season over the next five years. He can opt out of the deal after Year 3, though the Blue Jays can void that clause by exercising a sixth-year option, increasing his salaries by $2.5 million over the final three years.
Thanks to Santander’s near-$13.7-million AAV, Toronto’s projected Competitive Balance Tax payroll for next season drops below the second luxury tax threshold of $261 million, falling to approximately $258 million, according to FanGraphs’ Roster ResourceThat puts them around $23 million below the third CBT threshold of $281 million, which, if they were to surpass, would result in significant luxury tax penalties.
As a first-time offender, the Blue Jays would be subject to a 42.5-per-cent surcharge — on top of the initial 20-per-cent tax for all luxury-paying clubs — on any overages that exceed the first threshold of $241 million. They’d also have their highest draft selection push back 10 places for surpassing the luxury tax by at least $40 million.
Considering Toronto still has needs to address, like adding another impact hitter and an arm or two for the pitching staff, chances are the front office isn’t done spending this off-season and will likely exceed the second CBT threshold in 2025, resulting in a manageable surcharge of 12 per cent. Whether or not they’ll surge into that third tier remains to be seen. But they’re probably open to that scenario — for the right player, at least.
If management were to sign someone like, you know, Pete Alonso, that’d surely take this team into the third CBT threshold as the veteran first baseman is expected to command a deal worth in the $20-to-$25 million range per season. And they’d still need to procure at least one starting pitcher, such as Max Scherzer, perhaps — if not another high-leverage reliever, too.
Structuring Santander’s contract with heavy deferrals affords the Blue Jays the necessary flexibility to continue improving their roster with meaningful additions ahead of the 2025 campaign. Not all 30 clubs have that luxury. With this franchise owned by a telecommunications network (Rogers Communications), though, they can defer a significant portion of a player’s contract to the future — previously uncharted territory for GM Ross Atkins and his staff.
Now that they’ve created space for more spending, the next question will be how they’ll put it to use.