It’s hard to fathom why an MLB team with a payroll pushing $200 million needs to shed salary to stay competitive, but the San Diego Padres are once again looking to trim their payroll. Credit to president and general manager AJ Preller, who traded away Juan Soto and slashed $90 million in payroll heading into the 2024 season. The Padres still made the playoffs and were one win away from upsetting the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS.

Their M.O. appears to be addition by subtraction because the Friars are reportedly hoping to cut their payroll even further. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently broke the news about the Friars shopping starting pitcher Michael King.

In his first full season as a starting pitcher after coming over from the New York Yankees, King had a breakout year, ranking fifth in the National League in strikeouts and fourth in ERA. He was on the upswing as a starter with the Yankees, but he kicked it into high gear with the Padres in 2024. The Blue Jays witnessed first-hand just how dominating King was when he struck out a career-high 13 batters back on September 20, 2023. That was the tail-end of his tenure with the Yankees, but his late-season run looked to be the start of something special.

After swinging and missing on Corbin Burnes and Roki Sasaki, the Blue Jays are still looking to improve upon their starting five for the 2025 season. King would be a huge anchor to Toronto’s starting rotation in need of some high-end talent with big strikeout potential.

With only one year left of team control and King and the Padres heading to arbitration, he’s likely to earn something in the neighbourhood of $8 million once the dust settles. That’s a bargain for the 13th-best starting pitcher by fWAR and the 14th-best starting pitcher by bWAR in 2024.

It’s not a question of whether the Blue Jays should be interested in King, it’s whether they have the goods to get a deal done and if they can rise above their competition to offer the best package to the Padres.

To see if the Blue Jays could even have a seat at the negotiating table for a possible King trade, let’s look back at some past comparables.

It turns out it’s difficult to find comparables for offseason trades for high-end starting pitchers with only one year left on their current deal or team control. The Dodgers picked up Tyler Glasnow last offseason, but he came along with Manuel Margot.

Glasnow came off a 3.2 fWAR season with the Rays, but he had a $25 million price tag for his final season before the Dodgers re-negotiated his contract. It was more of a salary dump on the part of the Rays, and they found their next iteration of an ace in Pepiot.

Pablo Lopez posted a 3.0 fWAR season with the Miami Marlins before they traded him to the Minnesota Twins in January 2023. Lopez was also under the final year of team control, making $5.3 million in 2023.

And current Blue Jay Chris Bassitt was a late bloomer, but he broke out during his 2021 campaign with the Oakland A’s with a 3.3 fWAR season. As the Athletics are one to do, they cashed in their asset and dealt Bassitt to the Mets, with one year left and an $8.65 million salary.

With some All-Stars among this list, you’d figure the teams on the other side were getting some uber prospects back in return. The Rays received Ryan Pepiot, and he already looks like a legit starter with front-end potential. In 2023, Baseball America had him ranked as the 55th-best prospect in the game.

Luis Arraez was the centrepiece of the Lopez trade going to the Marlins, but the Twins got a Top 100 prospect in the deal. Shortstop Jose Salas was Baseball Prospectus’ 93rd-ranked prospect ahead of the 2023 season.

And the Oakland A’s got a pair of pitching prospects in the Bassitt trade: J.T. Ginn and Adam Oller. Ginn just made his big league debut this past season, but the Athletics already traded Oller off to the Marlins.

Many of these trades aren’t apples-to-apples comparisons, but one expects the Padres are asking for a high-end pitching prospect in any deal involving King. Last year’s first-round pick of the Blue Jays Trey Yesavage ranked 88th on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 Prospects List.

It seems like a high price to pay, but Yesavage is one of the most tantalizing names in Toronto’s farm system; a farm system that isn’t teeming with talent compared to other teams in MLB. Considering how the Blue Jays’ minor league pitching depth was decimated by injuries last year, can they afford to let another high-impact arm go? However, Yesavage is just starting his pro career and is likely years away from making his Major League debut, while King could elevate Toronto’s starting rotation right now (albeit for only one more year unless they extend him afterward).

Since we’re talking about starting pitchers anyway, the Blue Jays might be best to aim a little higher and go for Dylan Cease instead, while also keeping Yesavage on the table as a coveted prospect in the framework of a deal.

Cease will make $13.75 million in his final year of team control with the Padres this season. He’s the slightly better pitcher with a more impressive track record as a starter, but Cease has been stellar for the last four consecutive seasons. While it makes the most sense for the Blue Jays to trade from their pool of near-Major League or MLB outfielders, Joey Loperfido, Addison Barger and Jonatan Clase will not get it done with the Padres.

Quantity does not equal quality, and like any team trading away a Top-20 starting pitcher, they want a substantial return for a player of King’s (or Cease’s) ilk.

If the Padres prefer big league talent coming back to keep their competitive window open, the two biggest areas for improvement on their roster are at second base and left field. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, they just upgraded those two positions this offseason by adding Andres Gimenez and Anthony Santander.

Frankly, most of the secondary options the Blue Jays have (like Loperfido, Barger, Davis Schneider or Will Wagner) aren’t much of an upgrade from what the Padres already have on their own 40-man roster.

The only trade chip from the Blue Jays that makes sense to send to San Diego might be Bowden Francis. The Padres get a cost-controlled starting pitcher for the next five seasons who could plug into their rotation right away if they jettison a top-end starting pitcher.

Trading away Francis gives the Blue Jays an upgrade in the rotation, but then you’re punting five potential years of Francis for King, who’s in a walk year. Unless the Blue Jays are willing to gamble for an incremental gain, it might make more sense to hang onto Francis.