Alejandro Kirk leads MLB catchers in pitch framing runs this year and maybe you can see why (these were all called strikes).
Exploring some Blue Jays contract extension candidates outside of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette
Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
By Ian Hunter
Dec 31, 2024, 18:00 ESTUpdated: Dec 31, 2024, 17:13 EST
In the not-too-distant past, it felt like the Toronto Blue Jays’ window of contention was going to stay propped open for years. Well, we blinked and now that phase may soon be closing.
For the first time since those 2015 and 2016 postseason runs, this upcoming season will be the most important season in franchise history for determining where the Blue Jays will head in the future. Will they re-sign one of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette, or will the Blue Jays either trade them or let them walk as free agents at the end of 2025? By this time next year, we should have a clearer outlook for this franchise.
One way to gain some clarity for the future would be to extend one or more of their superstar players. Re-signing either Guerrero or Bichette would be a net positive, but beyond those two names, which Blue Jays staples warrant a contract extension? Keep in mind, this front office has been especially stingy with contract extensions, handing out only three contract extensions (to Justin Smoak, Randal Grichuk and Jose Berrios) in Ross Atkin’s and Mark Shapiro’s nine-year tenure with the Blue Jays.
They may not be the sexiest contract extension candidates, but if there’s one thing this regime loves, it’s cost-controlled players for the foreseeable future. So beyond Vladdy and Bo, these are the next most likely contract extension candidates for the Blue Jays.
Alejandro Kirk
Established as the Blue Jays’ number one starting catcher, Alejandro Kirk heads into salary arbitration for the second time in his career. 2026 is his final year of team control with the Blue Jays and could be a free agent as early as 2027.
The danger with signing any catcher to an extension is you are also signing that player to shift over to first base or DH part-way through that contract. Considering Kirk’s career high for games played in a single season is 139 in 2022 and 99 starts at catcher in 2023, his position change may come sooner rather than later.
Above all else, Kirk’s bat-to-ball skills were his calling card when the Blue Jays promoted him in 2020, and for the first two years of his career in Toronto, he delivered on that aspect of his game. But the last two years of a 92 and 94 OPS+ puts him below average offensively.
The bulk of Kirk’s value this past season was as a defensive stalwart behind the plate, and the instant the Blue Jays remove him from behind the dish, his value plummets as a light-hitting first baseman or designated hitter with below-average power numbers.
Unless the Blue Jays can find some way to keep Kirk behind the plate (perhaps pacing him out by reducing his playing time to keep his legs fresh), I don’t see a scenario where the Blue Jays should re-up Kirk in the future.
Should the Blue Jays extend Kirk? At this point, no.
Daulton Varsho
Statistically, Daulton Varsho is on a similar track to Kirk. Most of his value is rooted in his defensive ability, with the potential to club 20+ home runs, but we have yet to see Varsho unlock his full potential in a Blue Jays uniform.
However, this Blue Jays front office has a type, and judging by how they acquired the bulk of Andrés Giménez’s contract from the Cleveland Guardians, Atkins and company don’t mind shelling out dollars for elite defenders.
Heading into arbitration for a second time, Varsho figures to earn somewhere in the neighbourhood of $8 million, with $12-14 million on the table for his final year of arbitration in 2026. Beyond that, like Kirk, Varsho could also head elsewhere after the 2026 season.
Varsho fits the precise mould of the type of player the Blue Jays would extend out of the blue, but the wear and tear of playing centre field (especially on artificial turf) will catch up with Varsho. Kevin Kiermaier played almost all the home games during his career on turf, and he just retired from the game at 34 years old.
Varsho is ticketed for a shift to a corner outfield spot later in his career, but for now, he’s entrenched in that centre-field spot, which is where he can make the biggest impact defensively. But do the Blue Jays believe in his bat enough to warrant a contract extension?
Daulton Varsho is one of the best defenders in baseball and he ranked 10th in fWAR amongst CF despite missing the last month of the season If he wasn't a league average batter (99 wRC+) I could understand the lower ranking, but how is he below Jacob Young and Jose Siri
Blue Jays fans will always find a way to complain about my rankings. Daulton Varsho being the reason this year is hilarious
It’s not often you can lock up the best defensive outfielder in baseball, which is why the Blue Jays could table a pre-arbitration deal to lock in some cost certainty with Varsho.
He started the 2024 campaign off on a hot streak but tailed off from there and ended up with a 98 OPS+ in 136 games played. And it sounds like the injury that shut him down at the end of this past season may keep him off the field to start 2025.
If his bat can return to its Diamondback days of 2022, then I’m sure the Blue Jays would feel comfortable inking Varsho to a multi-year contract extension into his mid-30s. But 2025 will be a huge litmus test to see whether he will be this team’s starting centre fielder for the long term.
Should the Blue Jays extend Varsho? Let’s see how 2025 goes, then let’s talk again in one year.
Alek Manoah
I know this one seems unwarranted for a guy who only had five starts under his belt in 2024 and may only make a handful of starts this coming season. But have you seen the prices of starting pitchers in free agency these days?
Alek Manoah has been the biggest wild card on the Blue Jays’ pitching staff these last few years and he may occupy that title later in 2025 (right now, it’s Bowden Francis). Manoah’s UCL injury will sideline him until mid-season at the earliest, so the second half is the best-case scenario for the 26-year-old.
2027 is his final year of arbitration and team control, so there’s no rush to figure this out right now, but it won’t be long before the Blue Jays have to decide whether they’re all-in on Manoah or not. And even if he only returns to 50 percent of his breakout season in 2022, other teams will line up to take a chance on Manoah’s resurgence.
Alek Manoah will undergo UCL surgery June 17, said John Schneider. Exact procedure TBD, could be TJ, could be repair with brace. Either way his season is over.
Everyone is rooting for a Manoah comeback and considering the talent in his arm, it’s easy to envision him becoming a contributing member of Toronto’s starting rotation once again. 2025 isn’t a make-or-break year for Manoah, but a decent showing in the second half would improve his stock for 2026 and 2027.
In a perfect world, I think the Blue Jays should’ve signed Manoah to a contract extension after his 2022 campaign, but in retrospect, that may have been a blessing in disguise. But the Blue Jays haven’t escaped this conundrum yet; one bounce-back season by Manoah and they’re right back at square one.
Inheriting some risk now might save the Blue Jays some money later, but that also means Manoah wants to stay in Toronto long-term. This isn’t a decision that needs to be made right away, but the Blue Jays shouldn’t wait too long to decide whether Manoah is part of the next phase of this team.
Should the Blue Jays extend Manoah? Wait until the end of 2026 and see what happens.
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