At first blush, the Toronto Blue Jays don’t need immediate help in their starting pitching department. But looking under the hood at their lack of depth options after the farm system was ravaged by injuries last year, they still need starting pitching help.

There are already three veterans in the Blue Jays starting rotation, but it never hurts to have at least one more pitcher in your back pocket for when injuries hamper your ball club. Yes, they need to bolster their lineup and overhaul their bullpen, but building on the pitching depth is important, too.

Had it not been for Bowden Francis’ emergence in the second half, the Blue Jays might be in the market for two starting pitchers this offseason, so things can change in an instant. Unlike last offseason, there are a whole host of options on the starting pitcher market, whether it be frontline starters or veteran arms.

Nick Pivetta, formerly of the Boston Red Sox, falls into the latter category. Let’s explore if there’s any upside for a team like the Blue Jays to bring him home for the 2025 season.

On the whole, it was a pretty typical season for the right-hander. In 27 starts, he pitched to a 4.14 ERA, slightly better than his career average of a 4.76 ERA. After making his first two starts of the season, Pivetta missed five weeks and 28 games due to an elbow injury.

The Victoria, BC native saved his best month of the season for last, posting a 2.54 ERA through five starts in September for the Red Sox. He was on fire in July, when he posted 10 strikeouts in three of his five starts that month. So there’s big arm potential in there.

Despite an ERA in the average range, Pivetta was one of the anchors in a surprisingly solid Red Sox starting staff, who had the 7th best starting rotation ERA in baseball in 2024. He posted 11 quality starts in 26 starts (42%), which was the best quality start percentage of his career.

00

The Red Sox avoided arbitration with Pivetta and they settled on a $7.5 million salary for the 2024 season. He was the highest-paid starting pitcher on the Red Sox staff this past year.

Further complicating matters for prospective buyers, the Red Sox extended Pivetta a qualifying offer and he rejected it, so he is tied to draft compensation. That’s not so much an issue when signing upper-echelon players like Juan Soto or Corbin Burns, but are teams willing to sacrifice that pick for a 4.76 career ERA starter?

Spotrac estimates his AAV on the open market will be $15.1 million, with a potential for a 4-year/$60.3 million deal on the table for the right-hander. Meanwhile, MLB Trade Rumours is not as bullish on Pivetta, as they estimate he’ll land a one-year/$21 million contract in free agency.

With Eduardo Rodríguez as the most recent comparable to a starting pitcher in their early 30s (he signed a 4-year/$80 million deal with the Diamondbacks), I don’t think Pivetta will get there, but some teams will be willing to go multiple years.

Something with a higher AAV like MLBTR suggested, 2 years at $40 million total feels like the upper tier of what Pivetta might get on the open market, but Kiley McDaniel at ESPN believes Pivetta will get 3 years and $63 million from a potential buyer.

The Blue Jays are aiming high to improve their starting rotation (being linked to pitchers like Burnes, Max Fried and Blake Snell). It’s a colossal gap in quality from pivoting from Burnes to someone like Pivetta, but every team has to pivot in the offseason if their Plan A doesn’t come to fruition.

I’ve always believed the easiest way to improve the bullpen and the starting rotation is to sign a starter in concert with moving Yariel Rodríguez to the bullpen. The question is: does Pivetta raise the floor enough to warrant plunking tens of millions and multiple years?

He’s a valuable pitcher on any contender and can chew up innings and pick up strikeouts, but Pivetta has yet to display the skills to take him into a number one or two territory. Not everybody can be an ace on the staff, but the fact he declined the qualifying offer indicates he’s looking for multiple years on the open market.

If it gets late into the offseason and the Blue Jays still need one more arm for their bullpen, then they should entertain signing a starting pitcher like Pivetta. By then, his asking price may have dropped to where he could be signed in the $15-$17 million range.

But at first glance, if I’m the Blue Jays, I’m waiting to see how the starting pitching market develops before circling back on someone like Pivetta. If they don’t get a Burnes, Fried or Snell, then by all means, shop in the next starting pitcher tier, which includes Pivetta.