Despite possessing some depth at the position, the Blue Jays have indicated that they are interested in adding to their rotation this winter. They are, like most teams, interested in Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki, and have also been tied to Braves longtime ace Max Fried. If they aren’t able to sign either of those players, several intriguing backup plans may be available. Left-hander Sean Manaea is fresh off a successful season with the New York Mets, positioning himself for a multi-year deal. Let’s take a closer look at his free-agent profile.

Manaea enjoyed the best season of his Major League career in 2024, registering a 3.47 ERA, 9.12 K/9, 3.12 BB/9, and eclipsing the 180-inning plateau for the first time in his career. The 32-year-old had very similar peripherals in 2023 although he split time his time in the bullpen with the Giants and pitched just 117 2/3 innings. The biggest difference in his numbers over the last couple of years was a higher BAbip in 2023, which led to an ERA almost an entire run higher (4.44). Regardless, his FIP remained solid at 3.83 last season.

The lefty’s second half was also much better than his first, especially since July 30th after lowering his delivery to emulate Atlanta Braves left-hander Chris Sale, who he had just witnessed pitch against the Mets a few days earlier. His post-arm angle change FIP of 3.35 was a big improvement on his 4.18 mark up to that point.

After spending six seasons with the Oakland Athletics, Manaea has pitched for three different teams in the last three seasons. That being said, he has seemed to settle into what kind of pitcher he is: a solid starter with strikeout stuff and walk issues who is capable of delivering in big games. He probably fits in best as a three-starter for most competitive teams, despite being the best pitcher on the Mets last season.

On top of his strong regular season, Manaea took the ball for four postseason starts as the Mets made a run to the NLCS.

The 6’5″, 245-pounder tossed at least five innings while allowing two runs or fewer in his first three starts against the Brewers, Phillies, and Dodgers. After picking up the win in game two against the Dodgers, the eventual World Series champs got to him for five runs over two innings in game six. Despite the one rough outing, his first three starts showed that he could be trusted to face the best lineups in the league when it matters the most. There aren’t many pitchers in the league that would be able to hold the Dodgers’ offense down twice in one series anyway.

The Blue Jays return three veterans to their rotation in 2025: Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, and José Berríos. Beyond those three, the remaining two spots are up for grabs. Bowden Francis’ dominant stretch in the second half gives him a strong lead on a rotation spot heading into next year while Jake Bloss and Yariel Rodriguez are other internal options. The combination of Francis’s up-and-down 2024 season, Rodriguez’s bullpen flexibility, and Bloss’s inexperience have led to the Blue Jays’ desire to add from outside the organization. It may seem risky for the club to shell out money for a fourth veteran pitcher, but it’s worth noting that Bassitt’s entering the last year of his contract, while Gausman has two years remaining. Alek Manoah and former top prospect Ricky Tiedemann will also be returning from Tommy John surgery this season, so adding another veteran arm adds more depth to the organization.

One thing that all the above pitchers have in common is their handedness. After trading Yusei Kikuchi at the trade deadline, the club boasts no viable left-handed starting pitchers outside of Tiedemann, who has not appeared at the big league level. Having an all right-handed rotation is not unheard of, but it is unusual for a team to go an entire season without a left-hander starting a game. The importance of having a left-hander who can throw multiple innings is heightened in the playoffs, where matchups become more important.

With the recent interest in Fried, as well as speculation over a reunion with Kikuchi, the Blue Jays may be indicating that their starting pitching addition will be lefthanded. With both Fried and Kikuchi expected to have heavy interest, Manaea would be a solid backup plan. He will likely earn less than those two guys on an AAV basis, but his 2.8 fWAR (32nd among starting pitchers) in 2024 shows that he is due for a raise.

Manaea signed a two-year, $25 million deal with the Giants after the 2022 season, but opted out after his first year. He signed a similar two-year, $28 million deal with the Mets, choosing once again to take his opt-out after his first year. After two straight solid seasons, and given his age, it’s likely that this will be the biggest payday of the former Indiana State Sycamore’s career. It remains to be seen how much interest he may garner, especially considering the upside potential of his new arm slot.

Ben Clemens of Fangraphs predicts a three-year deal worth $51 million, good for $17.0 AAV. On one hand, it’s a lot of money for a pitcher who hasn’t sustained consistent stretches for a long period at all. On the other, there’s a chance for a deal like that to look like a bargain if Manaea can pitch like he did in the second half and playoffs.

It’s the kind of calculated gamble that the Jays may have to take if they miss out on some of the more highly touted pitching options.