Looking at Steamer projections for Blue Jays’ players in 2026
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Nov 17, 2025, 10:00 ESTUpdated: Nov 17, 2025, 09:30 EST
The first projection for the 2026 Major League Baseball season is here.
Recently, Fangraphs released their Steamer projections for the 2026 season, and if it’s to be believed, the Toronto Blue Jays are set to have some regression.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is an exception, of course. Steamer projects that the first baseman will slash .299/.385/.532 with 32 home runs for a 153 wRC+. Last season, Guerrero Jr. slashed .292/.381/467 with 23 home runs in 680 plate appearances for a 137 wRC+, but was one of the best hitters in the postseason.
Another player Steamer projects will have a better offensive season than last is Alejandro Kirk. In 2025, the catcher slashed .282/.348/.421 with a career-high 15 home runs in 506 plate appearances for a 116 wRC+. Steamer projects the catcher will slash .276/.354/.434 with 14 home runs in 446 plate appearances for 121 wRC+
A big reason the Blue Jays were able to do what they did in the postseason was designated hitter George Springer finding the fountain of youth. Last season, Springer slashed .309/.399/.560 with 32 home runs in 586 plate appearances for a 166 wRC+. Unfortunately, Steamer projects he’ll slash .260/.342/.455/ with 26 home runs in 609 plate appearances for a 123 wRC+.
Addison Barger’s emergence gave the Blue Jays a middle-of-the-order power bat, as he slashed .243/.301/.454 with 21 home runs in 502 plate appearances for a 107 wRC+ despite a tough last two months to his regular season. Steamer projects him to be slightly better, slashing .249/.318/.439 with 17 home runs in 434 plate appearances for a 110 wRC+.
What about Anthony Santander? After signing with the Blue Jays in the 2024/25 off-season, the switch-hitting outfielder missed a large chunk of the season due to injury and had a 61 wRC+ in 221 plate appearances when healthy. Steamer projects a bounce back, as they have him slashing .230/.309/.434 with 26 home runs in 567 plate appearances.
Daulton Varsho is another player Steamer projects to hit over 20 home runs, with 22 in 498 plate appearances and a 100 wRC+. Nathan Lukes is projected to have a strong season, as it has him slashing .273/.337/.406 with seven home runs in 359 plate appearances.
Other notable players and their wRC+ are Davis Schneider (12 home runs, 105 wRC+), Ernie Clement (nine home runs, 99 wRC+), and Andrés Gimémez(12 home runs, 94 wRC+). Moreover, Bo Bichette is projected to slash .292/.341/.454 with 7 home runs in 587 plate appearances for a 120 wRC+, while Kyle Tucker is projected to slash .268/.371/.482 with 24 home runs in 560 plate appearances for a 136 wRC+.
On the pitching side of things, Trey Yesavage is expected to throw 146 innings with a 3.86 ERA and 3.90 FIP, with a 25.7 K% and 9.6 BB%. Shane Bieber’s projection has the same ERA, but with a 3.77 FIP, as well as a 21.7 K% and 5.7 BB%. Kevin Gausman is projected to have a 4.05 ERA and 3.95 FIP, with a 23 K% and 7 BB%. Lastly, José Berríos’ projection has him posting a 4.52 ERA and 4.53 FIP in 171 innings pitched. Starting pitching is an area of need this off-season.
Brendon Little is projected to have a 3.43 ERA, the best in the bullpen. Jeff Hoffman isn’t far behind with a 3.46 ERA, while Louis Varland’s projected to have a 3.59 ERA and Yimi García is projected to have a 3.62 ERA.
Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Blue Jays Nation, Oilersnation, and FlamesNation. She can be followed on Twitter @Ryley__Delaney.