MLB betting preview (April 14): Braves vs. Blue Jays predictions

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Easton Lucas (62) pitches against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning at Fenway Park.

Photo credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Apr 14, 2025, 10:44 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays will return to Rogers Centre on Monday to begin an interleague series with the Atlanta Braves following a nine-game road trip.

Toronto split a pair of games with the Baltimore Orioles over the weekend to complete the 4-5 trip that was supposed to include a 10th game, but last Friday’s contest with the O’s was rained out and moved to a doubleheader later this summer.

Atlanta, meanwhile, is coming off a series loss to the Tampa Bay Rays. The Braves have alternated between wins and losses over their last eight games after opening the season with seven straight losses.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Monday’s series opener between the Braves and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365.

Braves vs. Blue Jays odds

Braves moneyline odds	-105
Blue Jays moneyline odds	-115
Runline odds	Blue Jays -1.5 (+175), Braves +1.5 (-210)
Total	Over 9 runs (-115), Under 9 runs (-105)
Date/Time	April 14, 7:07 p.m. ET

About the Braves (4-11 SU, 6-9 ATS, 6-7-2 o/u)

The Braves opened the season as one of the frontrunners to win the World Series this year with around +1000 odds, but a dreadful 4-11 start to the season has seen those odds lengthen to +1200 or +1300 at most online sportsbooks.

It’s a long season, and Atlanta will likely turn things around once its two superstars return to action from injury. Staff ace Spencer Strider (elbow) is likely to make his season debut Wednesday against the Blue Jays, and outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. is progressing well after tearing his ACL last year and should return in May or early June.

The Braves have really struggled offensively, scoring just 3.3 runs per game (25th in baseball) while posting just a .667 OPS (21st). Outfielder Jurickson Profar was supposed to give the team a lift in that department, but his 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs has left a big hole in Atlanta’s outfield. Don’t be surprised if Atlanta makes an early-season deal for an outfield bat to help fill the void.

About the Blue Jays (9-7 SU, 13-3 ATS, 5-11 o/u)

The Blue Jays are off to a nice start, thanks to some quality starting pitching through the first 16 games. The staff collectively holds a 3.08 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP heading into action Monday to rank amongst the top teams in baseball.

Offensively, the Blue Jays are averaging just 3.9 runs per game (20th) despite ranking third in hits (9.1 per game) and sixth in on-base percentage (.341). That means they’re not doing a good job of capitalizing with runners on, and they have just eight home runs (29th in the majors) to their credit. None of those homers have come off the bats of either Bo Bichette or Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Probable starting pitchers

Atlanta: RHP Grant Holmes (0-1, 4.00 ERA, 11 K/9)

Holmes has really struggled with his control in his last two starts, and that has led to high pitch counts and early exits from those games. He’s issued eight free passes over his last eight innings pitched while collecting nine strikeouts in that span. It’s early, but he ranks in the 74th percentile in breaking pitch run value, thanks to great movement on both his slider and curveball. His fastball also averages 95 mph, but opposing batters are hitting .308 off of the pitch with a .331 expected batting average this season.

Toronto: LHP Easton Lucas (2-0, 0.00 ERA, 9.58 K/9)

What a pleasant surprise Lucas has been for the Blue Jays. He’s held the opposition scoreless through two starts this season, collecting 11 strikeouts over 10 1/3 innings in the process. He’s commanded his fastball, which he throws nearly 60% of the time, very well to this point while also mixing in a changeup, sweeper, and slider. Lucas has also done a great job at inducing weak contact, as opposing hitters have barreled him up at a 0% rate so far.

Notable injuries

In addition to the injuries to Strider and Acuna Jr., the Braves will also be without pitchers Reynaldo Lopez (shoulder) and Joe Jimenez (knee).

Not much has changed on the injury front for the Blue Jays, as outfielder Daulton Varsho (shoulder) and pitchers Ryan Burr (shoulder), Erik Swanson (forearm), and Max Scherzer (thumb) are all on the injured list. Outfielder George Springer is also dealing with a wrist injury and is considered day-to-day.

Weather

It’s still a little too cold in Toronto to open the retractable roof, so this game will be played inside.

Braves vs. Blue Jays betting trends

The Blue Jays are 8-2 in their past 10 meetings with the Braves.
The under is 7-3 in the past 10 meetings.
The under is 11-2 in Toronto’s last 13 games.
Atlanta is 1-9 on the road this season.

Braves vs. Blue Jays player prop trends

As previously noted, Holmes has really struggled with control in both of his starts this season, issuing four walks in each outing. He’s around -195 to walk two or more batters.
After a slow start, Anthony Santander is heating up the plate, collecting a hit in each of his last four games. He’s around -195 to collect at least one hit on Monday.
Guerrero Jr. has recorded exactly one RBI in each of his last three games and is around +145 to drive in at least one run. He’s also posted back-to-back multi-hit games.
Three players—Michael Harris, Ozzie Albies, and Andres Gimenez—have stolen bags in back-to-back games. You can find odds as long as +700 on Harris and +650 on Albies to record stolen bases in this matchup. Gimenez has much shorter odds at around +360 to steal a bag.

Braves vs. Blue Jays prediction

First five innings total under five runs: +100 for one unit (best odds @ Pinnacle). Lucas has been electric in a small sample size for the Blue Jays, and he should continue to have success against the soft-hitting Braves, who are slashing a miserable .185/.252/.286 against southpaws this season. And despite his control issues, Holmes is no slouch either, holding the high-powered Phillies scoreless across four innings of work the last time he took the mound. Both starting pitchers will also have the element of surprise in this matchup, as no one on the Atlanta roster has previous at-bats against Lucas and only Ernie Clement, Guerrero Jr., Nathan Lukes, and Will Wagner have previously seen Holmes, with just one at-bat apiece.