MLB betting preview (April 23): Blue Jays vs. Astros predictions
Photo credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
By Greg Warren
Apr 23, 2025, 09:44 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays will be looking to avoid a fifth straight loss when they visit the Houston Astros at Daikin Park on Wednesday night.
Houston will be looking to complete a three-game sweep of Toronto after prevailing 5-1 over the Blue Jays on Tuesday night. The Astros have won four of their last five games overall to move above .500 for the first time this season.
Toronto will be off on Thursday before beginning a three-game series with the Yankees in The Bronx on Friday.
Let’s dive into the game odds for the series finale between the Blue Jays and Astros courtesy of bet365.
Blue Jays vs. Astros odds
Blue Jays moneyline odds | -105 |
Astros moneyline odds | -115 |
Runline odds | Astros -1.5 (+175), Blue Jays +1.5 (-210) |
Game total | Over 8.5 runs (-110), Under 8.5 (-110) |
Date/Time | April 23, 7:40 p.m. ET |
About the Blue Jays (12-12, 16-8 ATS, 9-15 o/u)
Toronto has now scored four runs or fewer in six straight games and seven of its last eight. The Blue Jays were held to just two hits for the second consecutive game by the Astros, with Ernie Clement and Nathan Lukes, hitting eighth and ninth, respectively, accounting for the only knocks on Tuesday.
Lukes launched his first homer of the season to bring Toronto’s team total to just 13 on the year. Only the Kansas City Royals have hit fewer homers (12) than the Blue Jays. Toronto’s .562 team OPS is the second-worst in the majors over the last seven days, ahead of the Los Angeles Angels (.508).
About the Astros (12-11 SU, 12-11 ATS, 8-13-2 o/u)
The Astros have received some outstanding pitching in this series, but their bullpen has been the backbone of their success early in the season. Houston’s relievers have a combined 2.72 ERA (fourth in the majors), and opponents are hitting just .193 against them (also fourth in the majors). The group has collected 98 strikeouts over 82 2/3 innings (10.67 K/9).
Houston’s starting pitching staff has also been good despite being ravaged by injuries, ranking in the top half of the league in ERA, WHIP, K/9, and strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Bowden Francis (2-1, 3.13 ERA, 7.83 K/9)
Francis is off to a fine start, just like many of his counterparts in the rotation to begin the season. He allowed one run over six innings of work while striking out five the last time he took the hill against the Seattle Mariners, and he’s allowed three earned runs or less in each of his four starts. However, he has tended to give up the long ball, allowing five homers to the opposition already.
He’s struggled with his curveball, as opponents are hitting a lofty .429 against the pitch, but he’s had success with his fastball and split finger to begin the season.
Houston: RHP Ryan Gusto (2-1, 3.18 ERA, 9.00 K/9)
Gusto will be making his third start of the season, but he’s also made four appearances out of the bullpen. He scattered nine hits while allowing two runs to the San Diego Padres over five innings of work last Friday, and he hasn’t thrown more than 72 pitches in a single outing this season, so don’t expect a lengthy outing from the righty. Gusto, who throws his fastball that averages 94 mph almost 60% of the time, has only walked three batters over 17 innings of work, ranking in the 89th percentile in walk rate in a small sample size.
Notable injuries
Outfielder Daulton Varsho (shoulder) and pitchers Ryan Burr (shoulder), Erik Swanson (forearm), Nick Sandlin (lat), and Max Scherzer (thumb) are all on the injured list for the Blue Jays.
As for the Astros, pitchers Spencer Arrighetti (thumb), Cristian Javier (elbow), Luis Garcia (elbow), and Lance McCullers Jr. (forearm) are on the shelf.
Weather
The roof will likely be closed in Houston due to the threat of thunderstorms throughout the evening hours.
Astros vs. Blue Jays betting trends
- Houston is 6-1 SU in the past seven meetings with Toronto.
- The under is 9-3 in the past 12 meetings.
- The under is 9-2 in Toronto’s away games this season.
- The under is 6-1 in Houston’s last seven games.
Blue Jays vs. Astros player prop trends
- Francis has beaten his strikeouts line of 4.5 in three of his four starts this year and seven of his last 10 dating back to last season. He’s around -110 to exceed that mark on Wednesday.
- Francis has allowed two earned runs or less in three of his four starts and eight of his last 10 dating back to last season. He’s -105 to record under 2.5 earned runs.
- Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena has hit safely in 13 straight games and is -210 to extend that streak.
Blue Jays vs. Astros predictions
- Game total under 8.5 runs: -106 for one unit (best odds at PROLINE +). Runs have been at a premium in this series, and that trend should continue on Wednesday, especially given Toronto’s struggles at the plate. Both teams have a scheduled day off on Thursday, so the managers won’t hesitate to go to their respective bullpens early and often to give their teams favourable matchups. There are several trends also suggesting the under is a good play here.