MLB Betting Preview (July 10): Blue Jays vs. Giants predictions

Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Trevor Richards (not pictured) wild pitch against San Francisco Giants second baseman Thairo Estrada (39) during the ninth inning at Oracle Park.

Photo credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

Jul 10, 2024, 10:00 EDTUpdated: Jul 10, 2024, 10:54 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays are back in action Wednesday after suffering a gut-wrenching 4-3 loss to the Giants in San Francisco in the series opener on Tuesday night.

San Francisco rallied for two runs in the bottom of the ninth inning off Blue Jays reliever Trevor Richards, who ended the game by uncorking a wild pitch that allowed Tyler Fitzgerald to score the winning run. Richards was tagged for two runs in the final inning and suffered the blown save.

Toronto surged behind starter Yusei Kikuchi, who struck out a career-high 13 batters, to take a 3-1 lead into the eighth inning. Fitzgerald had a huge game for the Giants, also smacking his second home run of the season in addition to scoring the game-winning run.

Let’s take a look at the game odds for Wednesday’s clash between the Blue Jays and Giants courtesy of bet365:

Blue Jays vs. Giants odds

Blue Jays Moneyline Odds	+130
Giants Moneyline Odds	-155
Runline Odds	Giants -1.5 (+150), Blue Jays +1.5 (-180)
Over/Under	Over 7 runs (-115), Under 7 runs (-105)
Time/Date	July 10, 9:45 p.m. ET
TV	Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (41-50 SU, 45-46 ATS, 43-45-3 o/u)

As we inch closer to the trade deadline at the end of the month, it becomes more apparent with every loss that the Blue Jays will be sellers. Now nine games below .500, Toronto’s front office will have interesting decisions to make over the next few weeks, especially with veteran players on expiring contracts, like Kikuchi, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Danny Jansen, and Yimi Garcia.

Toronto’s hobbled bullpen suffered another setback on Tuesday, with Richards, one of John Schneider’s most dependable arms this season, being the latest Blue Jays reliever to stumble. Schneider said after the game that Chad Green, who has been handling the closing duties while Jordan Romano and Garcia have been on the injured list, was unavailable after pitching on back-to-back days over the weekend in Seattle. Injuries to key bullpen arms have forced Schneider to elevate other relievers into high-leverage roles they aren’t accustomed to, and that has resulted in disaster. Toronto’s relievers have coughed up 54 home runs, the most in the majors, while also boasting the second-highest ERA (4.81).

Betting San Francisco Giants (45-47 SU, 44-48 ATS, 50-39-3 o/u)

Former Blue Jay Matt Chapman was in a classic revenge spot against his former club Tuesday night, but he responded by going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. Chapman played the last two seasons with Toronto before signing with San Francisco this past off-season, and he spoke about his strange free agency experience after the game.

“It was a really strange off-season. I didn’t get as many calls or as many offers as I thought I would. Just kind of a weird market. Weird year,” he said. “I didn’t talk to the Blue Jays a whole lot. They kind of had contact with us. I think they had me in mind. But I wasn’t sure how serious they were. I think they had other things that were on their mind before, like (Shohei) Ohtani and some of those things. So it was slow progressing for me. And then by the time the Giants came and we had something going, the Blue Jays kind of came in there at the end, but it was kind of a little bit too late, unfortunately.”

Chapman, a defensive stalwart, is also leading the Giants in RBIs (42), on-base percentage (.324), and hits (82).

Probable starting pitchers

Toronto: RHP Chris Bassitt (7-7, 3.43 ERA, 8.27 K/9), 1.42 WHIP)

Teams will definitely be calling Toronto about the availability of Bassitt leading up to the trade deadline after the right-hander put together an impressive string of starts over May (2.40 ERA) and June (1.95 ERA). However, he was roughed up a bit in his last start by the Houston Astros, who tagged him for four runs on eight hits over five innings. He’s also struggled historically against the Giants, posting a 2-2 record with a 4.41 ERA in six career starts against them. His career numbers are worse when pitching at San Francisco’s cavernous ballpark: 10 ER in 10 1/3 innings pitched.

San Francisco: RHP Logan Webb (7-6, 3.09 ERA, 7.77 K/9, 1.22 WHIP)

Webb, San Francisco’s ace, will be a tough task for the Blue Jays on Tuesday. The right-hander has been dominant at Oracle Park this season, posting a 4-2 record with a 2.13 ERA while holding opponents to a .239 batting average. Webb is adept at keeping the ball on the ground, as evidenced by his elite 58% ground-ball rate, which ranks in the 95th percentile according to Baseball Savant. Blue Jays hitters will see a steady diet of sinkers and changeups from Webb, who throws those two pitches roughly 71% of the time. Webb is coming off a solid start against the Atlanta Braves in which he allowed two runs over seven innings while striking out six.

Weather

It should be another perfect evening for baseball in the Bay Area, with temperatures expected around 18 C and clear skies. Winds will blow out to centre field at 7 mph.

MLB betting trends

The over is 11-4 in Toronto’s last 15 games.
The Blue Jays have covered the runline in 17 of their last 25 road games.
The Giants have played over the total in 50 of their 92 games this year (second-best over team in MLB)

MLB player prop trends

Webb has posted six or more strikeouts in three straight starts and seven of his last 10. He’s +130 to record over 5.5 strikeouts.
Giants outfielder Heliot Ramos is swinging a hot bat, riding a five-game hitting streak into action Wednesday. Ramos has three multi-hit games during that stretch and he launched his team-leading 13th home run on Tuesday. He’s -245 to get a hit, and +140 to record over 1.5 total bases.
Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette has struck out at least once in eight straight games. He’s -160 to strike out again Tuesday.

Blue Jays vs. Giants predictions

Oddsmakers have set this game total very low at seven runs with Bassitt and Webb squaring off in what should be a pitchers’ duel in a pitcher-friendly ballpark . Both of these teams have weak bullpens, so I’m going to target the highest scoring period of the game to be from the sixth inning on at +130 odds. It wouldn’t be surprising to see this game with a 1-0 or 2-1 score before the bullpens take over late in the game and things open up a bit.
If you’re looking for a longshot, bet365 has a tidy bet-boosted same-game parlay that includes Webb recording over 5.5 strikeouts, getting the win, and allowing under 2.5 earned runs at +500 odds.