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MLB Betting Preview (July 2): Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions
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Photo credit: © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Nicholas Martin
Jul 2, 2024, 12:00 EDTUpdated: Jul 2, 2024, 12:01 EDT
The Blue Jays will look to bounce back from what was yet another tough loss on Canada Day, which featured a lack of timely hitting once again. They are slight home favourites in the second game of the series, as Jose Berrios (3.38 ERA, 104 IP) is set to take on rookie Spencer Arrighetti (5.68 ERA, 65 IP).
Let’s dive into the odds and relevant game notes for Tuesday’s matchup between the Yankees and Blue Jays:

Astros vs. Blue Jays odds

Astros Moneyline Odds
-105
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds
-115
Runline Odds
Astros +1.5 (-210), Blue Jays -1.5 (-115)
Over/Under
Over 8.5 runs (-105, Under 8.5 runs (-115)
Time/Date
July 2, 5:07 p.m. ET
TV
Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+

Houston Astros

The Astros won for the tenth time in 11 games Monday, and are now in the second-closest divisional race in baseball with the Mariners only three games up.
The Astros’ recent offensive form has not been some blip on the radar relative to the rest of the season, but it has simply become more noteworthy now that the starting staff has clicked into form.
Houston ranks seventh this season with its 112 wRC+, and also owns a fifth-ranked OPS of .745. It owns the second-highest expected batting average in baseball at .262.
Over the last 30 days, the Astros have hit to a wRC+ of 115, with a .763 OPS. They have hit right-handed pitching particularly well of late, with a wRC+ of 117 and an OPS of .767, and struck out just 18% of the time in that span.
In more favourable circumstances the Astros would likely not have brought Spencer Arrighetti up to MLB as early on in the year as they did, and it’s been an ugly start to what could be a strong career for the 24-year-old righty with an ERA of 5.68 in his initial 14 outings.
His 4.14 xERA and 4.25 xFIP do suggest he has been better to some extent than his ugly ERA suggests. His stuff is not rating out overly well, however, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of just 86. He owns a Location+ rating of 99.

Toronto Blue Jays

Jose Berrios outperformed his xERA by nearly a full run last season and is currently on track to come in a full run under his xERA of 4.50 once again. He also owns an xFIP of 4.35. It’s likely that Berrios is slightly better than those metrics suggest, but it still appears that he isn’t quite as strong as his excellent ERA suggests.
Berrios stuff is rating out considerably worse this season than last. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 92, compared to his 2023 mark of 100. His fastball is averaging 93, and batters have slugged .609 against it.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was a late scratch in yesterday’s game and is considered day-to-day. Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s status for today’s contest also remains in question.
The Blue Jays’ offence continues to have relatively strong results overall, especially versus righties in particular, but an inability to own the big moments continues to prevent a better record where it counts. That thought was especially prominent in Monday’s game, as recording zero runs from a pair of bases-loaded one-out spots ultimately cost the Jays the game.

Predictions for Astros vs Blue Jays

The Astros feature one of the most talented lineups in baseball, which enters this matchup in tremendous form. Arrighetti should also prove to be a pitcher than we have seen thus far as the season wears along. For those reasons, the prices in this game look fairly accurate, especially with some red flags indicating Berrios isn’t pitching at his best level.
This looks like a good spot to target Berrios allowing over 2.5 earned runs at -110. The bet sets up well because not only are the Astros likely to hit Berrios fairly well, but Berrios should still earn a very long leash in any game script given the way the Blue Jays bullpen has been going.
If Berrios is going to be stretched to pitch 6-7 innings regardless of how things are going, there is a better chance than -110 implies that he allows over 2.5 earned runs, and I see value with a bet on the over barring significant pieces from the Astros lineup resting in this matchup.
Best Bet: Jose Berrios Over 2.5 Earned Runs -110 (Bet365, Play to -115)

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