MLB betting preview (July 23): Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions

Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Jeff Hoffman (23) watches New York Yankees first baseman Ben Rice (22) round the bases after hitting a solo home run in the ninth inning at Rogers Centre

Photo credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

Jul 23, 2025, 13:00 EDTUpdated: Jul 23, 2025, 11:59 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays will look to get back to their winning ways at Rogers Centre when they close out a series with the New York Yankees on Wednesday evening.

New York snapped Toronto’s franchise-best 11-game winning streak at Rogers Centre with a 5-4 victory on Tuesday night. Ben Rice launched a tiebreaking solo homer in the top of the ninth inning to help the Bronx Bombers snap a five-game losing streak against their AL East rivals.

Let’s take a look at the game odds for Wednesday’s series finale between the Yankees and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds

Yankees moneyline odds	-135
Blue Jays moneyline odds	+115
Runline odds	Yankees -1.5 (+125), Blue Jays +1.5 (-150)
Game total	Over 8.5 runs (+100), Under 8.5 (-120)
Date/time	July 23, 7:07 p.m. ET

About the Yankees (56-45 SU, 47-54 ATS, 44-54-3 o/u)

The Yankees trail the Blue Jays by three games for the top spot in the AL East, and Toronto leads the season series 6-3. These teams will also meet for three more games this season at Yankee Stadium in early September.

New York has been mediocre on the road this season, recording a 26-26 record away from Yankee Stadium while posting a dreadful 20-32 mark on the runline.

The Yankees own the best team OPS in the majors (.788) while also leading the big leagues in home runs (160).

About the Blue Jays (59-42 SU, 60-41 ATS, 52-46-3 o/u)

The Blue Jays will have a chance to claim the season series with New York with a win on Wednesday, but it won’t be easy against starting pitcher Max Fried, who has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the league this season. However, the Blue Jays have hit southpaws quite well this season, posting a combined .739 OPS (seventh in the majors) with a .337 on-base percentage (second in baseball).

Closer Jeff Hoffman surrendered his 10th home run of the season on Tuesday in just over 43 innings of work. However, he’s converted 24 of his 28 save attempts this year, and his Statcast metrics rank him among the elite pitchers in chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate. His 4.78 ERA isn’t attractive, but he does own a 3.69 xERA.

Probable starting pitchers

New York: LHP Max Fried (11-3, 2.43 ERA, 8.34 K/9)

Fried has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year, but he’s hit a wall in July. The lefty has surrendered 10 earned runs on 15 hits over 14 innings of work this month, including a mediocre start against the Blue Jays. Fried was touched up for four runs on three hits over six innings on July 1 by Toronto in a game George Springer collected a career-high seven RBIs in. Springer owns a career 1.178 OPS in nine at-bats against Fried with a home run. Fried has also been nursing a blister issue heading into this start, so that’s something to monitor from a betting perspective.

Toronto: RHP Chris Bassitt (10-4, 3.89 ERA, 8.66 K/9)

Bassitt will be making his third start against the Yankees this season, and he’s had mediocre results in his first two appearances against them. New York touched him up for three runs on eight hits over 5 2/3 innings a few weeks ago in Toronto, and he allowed four runs on six hits back in April at Yankee Stadium. However, the veteran right-hander is on a heater right now, allowing just a single run over his last three appearances. He’s also been incredible at home, posting a 7-0 record with a 2.53 ERA in 11 starts this year.

Notable injuries

Pitchers Gerrit Cole (elbow), Luis Gil (lat), Clarke Schmidt (elbow), and Ryan Yarbrough (oblique) are on the shelf for New York.

Outfielder Daulton Varsho (hamstring), outfielder Anthony Santander (shoulder), and infielder Andres Gimenez (ankle) are on the injured list for Toronto. Pitchers Bowden Francis (shoulder) and Yimi Garcia (ankle) are also out for the Blue Jays.

Weather

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 24 C and clear skies this evening in Toronto. Winds will blow from right field to left field at 10 mph.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays betting trends

The over is 14-4-1 in New York’s last 19 games.
The Yankees have hit the team total over in 12 of their last 17 games.
The Blue Jays have the best record on the runline (60-41) in the majors this season.
The Blue Jays have hit the team total over in 30 of their last 46 games.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays player prop trends

Fried has allowed three earned runs or more in four of his last five starts and is -145 to surrender over 1.5 earned runs on Wednesday.
Bo Bichette has doubled in three straight games and six of his last 10. He’s +300 to record a double on Wednesday night.
Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in 18 of his last 10 games. He’s a steep -260 to get a hit.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bet

Three-leg parlay – Max Fried over 1.5 earned runs allowed, over 5.5 hits allowed, under 17.5 outs recorded: +623 for one unit (best odds @ bet365). This seems like a good spot to fade Fried in multiple markets for a chance at a higher payout. As previously mentioned, Toronto hits southpaws quite well and had success against him a few weeks ago. The additional blister issue is another negative factor working against Fried here, as is New York’s bullpen, which has seen some heavy usage over the last five days.
Blue Jays moneyline: +121 for one unit (best odds @ Pinnacle). The Blue Jays have been a force at Rogers Centre recently and against the Yankees overall this season. If we truly believe Fried will have a lacklustre start, and several indicators are suggesting this could be another subpar outing for him, it also makes sense to back Toronto on the moneyline, especially at attractive plus money odds.