The Toronto Blue Jays have the opportunity to earn a series victory over a high quality side Wednesday, and would also move themselves back to .500 with a win. Chris Bassitt had his best start of the season Friday in Oakland, but was left with a no-decision due to a lack of run support. Bassitt will duel with Tobias Myers Wednesday, who enters off a similarly dominant eight-inning shutout.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Wednesday’s matchup between the Blue Jays and Brewers:

After a sluggish start to the season, Bassitt seems to be settling into top form. He’s posted an ERA of 2.51 over his last seven starts. He’s been hard-hit 33% of the time in those outings, and improved his walk rate (6%) and K-rate (24%). Bassitt’s current 3.80 ERA is his worst of the last four seasons, but it seems likely that he can improve that number the rest of the way.

Bassitt owns a Stuff+ rating of 96, and a Location+ of 100. In 2023 Bassitt held a Stuff+ rating of 92, and a Location+ rating of 100.

One clear strength of Toronto’s lineup once again this season has been its excellent defensive play. The Blue Jays rank first in Defensive Runs Saved this season, and fifth in Outs Above Average.

The Blue Jays have settled into a relatively long run of slightly below league average play at the plate. They own a wRC+ of 99 over the last 30 days, with an OPS of .686.

The Blue Jays’ continue to feature fairly prominent lefty-righty splits, and they will be in there preferred split here versus a righty in Myers. They have hit to a wRC+ of 107 versus righties over the last month, and feature an elite 0.53 K/BB ratio.

Kevin Kiermaier exited Tuesday’s matchup with a bruised knee, and could be unavailable today as a result.

If Myers could continue to post back of the rotation results it would be a huge get for Craig Counsell and the Brewers, who are currently dealing with a significant grouping of injuries to the pitching staff.

Myers has pitched to a 4.43 xERA and 4.29 xFIP in 34 and 2/3 innings pitched this season. He owns a Stuff+ rating of 93, and a Location+ rating of 100. Myers threw first pitch strikes 75% of the time versus the Tigers, and was effective once ahead in the count. He features plus ratings on his sinker and cutter, and can work his changeup in effectively, particularly in favourable counts.

The Brewers have batted to a 105 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching over the last month, with an OPS of .713. They hold a wRC+ of 100 over the last two weeks versus righties, and have struck-out 23.9% of the time.

They were without Joey Ortiz last night due to a hamstring injury, and his status for this game is unclear. He has been one of the top bats on the team versus right-handed pitching, with an OPS of .918 this season.

Bassitt’s prior history and strong underlying results suggest his recent form is what he really is. The Brewers offence has come down to earth of late, and looks closer to an upper third unit against righties as opposed to being one of the league’s very best. The Blue Jays have also been arguably the best defensive team in baseball by most respected measurements, and that strength has been notable in this series so far.

Myers looks to be a slightly better pitcher than oddsmakers are expecting here, and should be able to find reasonable results the first two times through the order. The Brewers bullpen is in good shape, as Enoli Paredes is likely the only arm that will be unavailable to Counsell.

A total of nine looks a touch high in this matchup, and anything better than -120 is worth a bet on the under nine.