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MLB Betting Preview (June 17): Red Sox vs. Blue Jays predictions

Toronto Blue Jays center fielder Daulton Varsho (25) is greeted by team mates at home plate after hitting a grand slam home run against the Cleveland Guardians in the fifth inning at Rogers Centre

Photo credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

By Greg Warren

Jun 17, 2024, 11:00 EDTUpdated: Jun 17, 2024, 10:59 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays will begin a three-game series with the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre on Monday after opening their current six-game homestand by taking two of three from the Cleveland Guardians over the weekend.

Daulton Varsho hit a grand slam and Ernie Clement added a two-run homer to lift the Blue Jays to a 7-6 victory over the Guardians on Sunday afternoon and claim the series win. Toronto will visit Cleveland for three games beginning Friday after this set with Boston.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, are coming off a huge series win over their biggest rival, the New York Yankees. Boston slugged its way to a 9-3 win on Sunday night to take two of three games from the American League East Division leaders. The series win comes on the heels of another impressive series win over the Philadelphia Phillies, who lead the National League East Division.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Monday’s series opener between the Red Sox and Blue Jays via bet365:

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds

Red Sox Moneyline Odds	+110
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds	-130
Runline Odds	Blue Jays -1.5 (+160), Red Sox +1.5 (-190)
Over/Under	Over 8 runs (+100), Under 8 runs (-120)
Time/Date	June 17, 7:07 p.m. ET
TV	Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+

Betting Boston Red Sox (37-35 SU, 33-39 ATS, 32-35-5 o/u)

Expectations were low for the Red Sox coming into the season after a quiet offseason, but the team is remaining competitive thanks to some unlikely breakouts from several pitchers. Tanner Houck, Cooper Criswell, and Kutter Crawford have simultaneously exceeded expectations and lifted Boston’s starting rotation to elite status, at least to this point of the season. Several unheralded relievers are also having fine seasons, allowing Boston to post a 3.48 team ERA, which ranks sixth in the majors.

Offensively, the team is also flourishing without key injured players like Trevor Story and Triston Casas. The Red Sox rank in the top six of the league in team batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. They also like to run, accumulating 69 stolen bases to this point, which ranks fifth in MLB.

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (35-36 SU, 36-35 ATS, 30-39-2 o/u)

The Blue Jays are 27-3 when scoring five or more runs this season, a feat they’ve accomplished in back-to-back games against a very good Guardians pitching staff. Overall, the Blue Jays are averaging just 3.9 runs per game (24th in the majors) and they’ve really struggled to put runs on the board at a consistent pace. However, they’ve got to be feeling good about their series win over the Guardians and about their prospects of getting back to the .500 mark early this week against Boston.

There are a few injury notes bettors should monitor leading up to first pitch Monday. Bo Bichette is day-to-day with a calf injury and reliever Yimi Garcia was lifted from Sunday’s game with elbow soreness. Garcia has been one of Toronto’s best pitchers this season, posting 10 holds and five saves while striking out 37 batters over 28 innings of work. With closer Jordan Romano already on the injured list, his absence would leave Toronto short at the back end of the bullpen.

Probable starting pitchers

Boston: RHP Nick Pivetta (3-4, 3.88 ERA, 10.68 K/9, 1.08 WHIP)

Pivetta, who will be a free agent at the end of this season, is having a solid campaign for the Red Sox, although he was roughed up by the Phillies for four runs over four innings last time out. He struggled with his control in that start, walking four batters while throwing just 93 pitches. Pivetta has historically pitched poorly against Toronto, recording a 2-4 record with a 5.35 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over 79 innings against the Blue Jays.

Toronto: LHP Yusei Kikuchi (4-5, 3.26 ERA, 8.84 K/9, 1.23 WHIP)

Kikuchi laboured through his last start against the Milwaukee Brewers, walking four batters over five scoreless innings of work on 97 pitches. His command wasn’t sharp and he found himself working from behind in the count often, but he battled and held the Brew Crew to just three hits. Kikuchi’s day/night splits jump off the page. He’s 3-2 with a microscopic 1.95 ERA and holding opponents to a .199 batting average at night, but during day starts he’s 1-3 with a 4.46 ERA and opponents are hitting .304 off of him.

Weather

A major heat wave is supposed to hit Toronto this week, so temperatures are expected to be around 26 C (feels like 33 C with the humidity) at first pitch under sunny skies. Winds will be blowing in from right field at 10 mph. The retractable dome should be open.

MLB betting trends

The under is 6-2-1 in Toronto’s last nine games.
The over is 4-0-1 in Boston’s last five games.
The Red Sox are 19-15 SU and 19-15 ATS in their last 34 road games.

MLB player prop trends

Pivetta has walked two or more batters in four straight starts. He’s -110 to record over 1.5 walks on Monday.
Red Sox catcher Connor Wong and outfielder Jarren Duran are both hot right now. Wong is riding a nine-game hitting streak and Duran has hit safely in seven straight games. Wong is -200 to get a hit; Duran is -210.
Blue Jays outfielder George Springer has struck out at least once in six straight games. He’s -155 to strike out again Monday.
Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers has scored a run in five straight games. He’s +145 to plate on Monday.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays predictions

Blue Jays moneyline: -130. The Blue Jays are in a good spot to capture this series opener with Kikuchi on the mound against Pivetta, who has a poor track record against Toronto. Five Blue Jays have previous homers off Pivetta and seven are hitting .333 or better in their careers against him. Boston is coming off an emotional and intense series against its bitter rival, so this is a prime letdown spot on the road against a confident Toronto squad right now.
Varsho should be confident at the plate after his grand slam Sunday and he’ll be licking his lips when Pivetta takes the mound. He’s 4-for-8 with two home runs and three RBIs in his career against the Boston right-hander. I’m going to play him to record over 1.5 total hits + runs + RBIs (+125). If you like him to go deep for a second consecutive day, his odds are around +500.