The Blue Jays extended their losing skid in ugly fashion Friday, as they were pummelled 7-1 in the series opener. Yariel Rodriguez had a disastrous return to action while struggling veteran Carlos Carrasco shut down the offence.

Things feel about as bleak as they have in several seasons around Toronto right now, and it will be on Jose Berrios to try to help turn things around on Saturday. Berrios has pitched to an ERA of 3.41 over his last five starts but was roughed up by Cleveland last time out.

Berrios will be opposed by Ben Lively, who also allowed four earned runs in his last start on June 16 versus Toronto.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Saturday’s matchup between the Blue Jays and Guardians:

Jose Berrios continues to be hit more effectively this season than last but has remained comparably effective due to an 86.1% strand rate. If Berrios begins to allow a higher average with RISP, it could shed light on some other concerns in his game right now. He owns an xERA of 4.44 this season, with an xFIP of 4.22.

Berrios Stuff+ rating of 93 is down considerably compared to last season’s mark of 100. His whiff-rate is down to just 20%, and his K-rate is down to just 17.6%. Over his last five starts, Berrios owns a strikeout rate of just 14%, and has allowed an xBA of .274. He has allowed a batting average of .298 versus righties this season, which is the sixth worst among qualified starters.

The Blue Jays bullpen is missing two key pieces with Yimi Garcia and Jordan Romano sidelined, and has offered some shakier form this season. Over the last 30 days, the Jays’ bullpen has a 4.08 xFIP and a 3.97 ERA, with a strikeout rate of just 17.9%.

While Berrios has found strong results where it matters based on his ability to get outs in key moments, the Blue Jays offence continues to underwhelm based upon its inability to come through in the clutch. The Blue Jays own a BABIP of .280 with RISP and a 25th-ranked slug-rate of .355.

The Blue Jays have hit to a wRC+ of 106 versus right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, with a slug rate of .720. Bo Bichette should remain the only regular missing member of the lineup in Saturday’s matchup.

While the Blue Jays have underachieved based on their lowly splits with RISP, the Guardians have been among the best in the league, which has helped power their excellent offensive results. They have been excellent offensively of late, with a wRC+ of 119 and a slug rate of .418.

Ben Lively has been a pleasant surprise for the Guardians, as it was far from expected that the 32-year-old would post a sub-4.00 ERA out of the blue. He holds an xERA of 3.61, and an xFIP of 4.42 this season. His stuff rates out poorly, as he owns a Stuff+ rating of 77. Over the last five starts, Lively has been hard-hit by 43% and has a strikeout rate of 22%.

This matchup looks like a good opportunity to target another high-scoring affair at what has become a hitter’s paradise in Progressive Field.

Berrios appears to be a lesser pitcher this season than last, and could struggle once again with a Guardians lineup which has been in dominant form of late. The Blue Jays bullpen has also been highly concerning of late, and that concern could be particularly prominent if Berrios can’t pitch deep into this game.

Lively’s arsenal suggests he is not likely to be this strong of a pitcher at the MLB level over a large sample, and the Blue Jays saw him well last weekend as they got to him for four earned runs.

There is value in betting the over 9 to -115.