MLB Betting Preview (June 25): Blue Jays vs. Red Sox predictions
Photo credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
By Greg Warren
Jun 25, 2024, 10:00 EDTUpdated: Jun 25, 2024, 10:46 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays are back in action Tuesday at Fenway Park after suffering a walk-off defeat at the hands of the Boston Red Sox in the series opener on Monday night.
Toronto erupted for five runs in the top of the seventh inning to take a 6-2 lead on Monday, but its bullpen imploded, once again, by allowing four runs in the eighth inning and the game-winning run in the bottom of the ninth inning. Boston walked away with a 7-6 victory after Jarren Duran’s walk-off single to improve to a perfect 4-0 against the Blue Jays this season.
Toronto has now lost seven straight games to fall to last place in the American League East Division with a 35-43 record. The Blue Jays are 16 games back of the New York Yankees for the division lead and 7.5 games out of a wild-card spot.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Tuesday’s clash between the Blue Jays and Red Sox courtesy of bet365:
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox odds
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | +100 |
Red Sox Moneyline Odds | -120 |
Runline Odds | Red Sox -1.5 (+155), Blue Jays +1.5 (-185) |
Over/Under | Over 9 runs (-105), Under 9 runs (-115) |
Time/Date | June 25, 7:10 p.m. ET |
TV | Broadcast: Sportsnet, Sportsnet+ |
Betting Toronto Blue Jays (35-43 SU, 38-40 ATS, 34-41-3 o/u)
The Blue Jays have hit rock bottom after Monday’s demoralizing loss to the Red Sox. The team took a 6-2 lead in the seventh inning after Vladimir Guerrero Jr. crushed a 471-foot moonshot over the Green Monster, the longest home run of his career and the third longest ever hit at Fenway Park in the Statcast Era. But the excitement quickly vanished after Nate Pearson, Tim Mayza, and Zach Pop combined to cough up five runs in the late innings to let another win slip away.
Toronto’s shorthanded bullpen has been horrendous this season, pitching to a 4.60 ERA while allowing an MLB-leading 48 home runs. Closer Jordan Romano (elbow), and setup man Yimi Garcia (elbow) are currently on the injured list and Erik Swanson, who was used in high-leverage situations last year, was previously demoted to the minors for poor performance. Right-hander Chad Green also spent some time on the IL earlier in the season, leaving the bullpen in a constant state of flux throughout the season.
Outfielder Daulton Varsho didn’t play Monday due to a sore back, but shortstop Bo Bichette is expected to be activated off the IL on Tuesday with his ailing calf now on the mend.
Betting Boston Red Sox (43-36 SU, 36-43 ATS, 36-38-5 o/u)
Everything seems to be going right for the Red Sox this season despite the roster being decimated by injuries.
Manager Alex Cora made a questionable decision Monday to bring in right-hander Isiah Campbell to relieve Tanner Houck in the seventh inning with the game tied at 2-2. Campbell surrendered three straight hits, including Guerrero Jr’s moonshot, before ending the inning with a strikeout. He had awful numbers coming in and probably shouldn’t have been used in that high-leverage spot, and his ERA now sits at an ugly 16.20 after the Blue Jays pounded him into submission. However, Cora redeemed himself with a number of shrewd pinch-hitting decisions in the bottom of the eighth inning that paid off and allowed Boston to pull even at 6-6 heading into the final inning. After Duran’s walk-off hit, Cora said Fenway Park was the loudest it’s been since 2021.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (5-6, 4.24 ERA, 8.81 K/9, 1.29 WHIP)
Boston touched Gausman up for five runs – four earned – on six hits last week to hand him his sixth loss of the season. Duran and Enmanuel Valdez took him deep in that contest and Gausman walked three batters. The right-hander has surrendered six home runs over four starts this month, but he’s thrived away from Rogers Centre, holding the opposition to a .201 batting average while owning a sparkling 1.86 ERA.
Boston: RHP Brayan Bello (7-4, 4.83 ERA, 8.09 K/9, 1.41 WHIP)
Bello will be making his second straight start against Toronto after throwing six innings of two-run ball against the Blue Jays last week. He struck out six and walked a pair in that outing while scattering seven hits to earn his seventh win of the season. The right-hander’s previous three starts this month weren’t very good, with opponents tagging him for 13 earned runs in just under 16 innings of work. Bello is at his best when he keeps the ball on the ground with his sinker and changeup. He ranks in the 91st percentile in baseball with a 54.5% ground-ball rate.
Weather
Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 28 C with clear skies on Tuesday night at Fenway Park. Winds will be light at 5 mph blowing out to right field.
MLB betting trends
- The Red Sox are 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS in four games against Toronto this year.
- The Red Sox are just 14-25 ATS in 39 games at Fenway Park this season.
- Toronto is 21-20 ATS in 41 road games this season.
- The over is 6-3 in Boston’s last nine games.
MLB player prop trends
- Duran extended his hitting streak to 14 games on Monday. He’s slashing an incredible .431/.468/.638 with two homers, 10 RBIs, and five stolen bases over the last 15 days.
- Bello has walked two or more batters in seven straight starts and nine of his last 10. He’s -130 to walk over 1.5 batters.
- Guerrero Jr. has homered in back-to-back games to bring his total to 10 on the season. He’s homered twice in the past against Bello and owns a juicy 1.327 OPS against the right-hander in 17 career at-bats.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox predictions
- Gausman really struggles at preventing stolen bases so it might be worth targeting Boston’s three speedsters – David Hamilton (+120), Ceddanne Rafaela (+350) and Duran (+175) – to potentially steal some bags. Gausman is -9 in pitcher base advances prevented, only trailing Baltimore’s Corbin Burnes in that category. Base stealers are also a perfect 13-0 on Gausman when advancing from first base to second base this season. Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen has thrown out only 10% of the batters attempting to steal second on him this season. Alejandro Kirk is much better at throwing runners out at second with a 26% caught stealing percentage, so pay attention to who’s behind the plate for Toronto on Tuesday and wager accordingly.
- Guerrero Jr. is buzzing right now, and as previously mentioned, he’s had great success against Bello. His spit stats at Fenway Park are also very impressive: .346/.430./.622 with 10 homers and 37 RBIs in 39 career games. If you think he’ll go deep for a third straight game, shop around and you’ll find odds around +450 at a few online sportsbooks. The safer play will be to wager on Vlad to record over 1.5 total bases, which you can find for around -125 odds.
- It’s hard to back the Jays at around even money considering their current woes. If you shop around, you can find Boston at -115 on the moneyline. The Red Sox prevailed 7-3 last week in a game that featured this exact same pitching matchup at Rogers Centre. They closed as +123 underdogs in that contest.