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MLB Betting Preview (June 28): Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions
Toronto Blue Jays right fielder George Springer (right), designated hitter Justin Turner (2) and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (center) celebrate at home plate after they scored on Springer's home run against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Rogers Centre.
Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Greg Warren
Jun 28, 2024, 11:00 EDTUpdated: Jun 28, 2024, 11:10 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays will be seeking a third straight win Friday when they take on the New York Yankees in the second contest of a four-game series at Rogers Centre.
George Springer launched a pair of three-run homers and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also went deep to propel Toronto to a convincing 9-2 victory in the series opener on Thursday.
With the loss Thursday, the Yankees fell back into a tie with the Baltimore Orioles for the American League East lead with a record of 52-31. New York is struggling mightily recently, posting just three wins in its last 13 games.
Let’s dive into the game odds for Friday’s showdown between the Yankees and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365:

Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds

Yankees Moneyline Odds
-120
Blue Jays Moneyline Odds
+100
Runline Odds
Yankees -1.5 (+140), Blue Jays +1.5 (-165)
Over/Under
Over 8.5 runs (-115), Under 8.5 runs (-105)
Time/Date
June 28, 7:07 p.m. ET
TV
Broadcast: Sportsnet 1, Sportsnet+

Betting New York Yankees (52-31 SU, 44-39 ATS, 42-38-3 o/u)

After blowing out the Kansas City Royals on June 12, the Yankees were an MLB-best 49-21. They’re 3-10 since.
Carlos Rodon had another miserable night on the mound Monday, allowing eight earned runs in five innings of work. He’s the first Yankees pitched to allow at least 20 earned runs over a three-game span since Chien-Ming Wang in 2009. Before his last three outings, Rodon’s ERA was 2.93. It’s now 4.42.
And he’s not the only starting pitcher on the squad struggling. Through June 14, the rotation had the lowest ERA in the majors at 2.77 across the first 72 games of the season. In 11 games since, the starters have a combined 8.65 ERA, allowing 50 runs in 52 innings.
Injuries are also partially to blame for New York’s drastic downturn. Slugger Giancarlo Stanton and first baseman Anthony Rizzo are out with long-term injuries, and infielder Gleyber Torres’ struggles have landed him on the bench.

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (37-43 SU, 40-40 ATS, 36-41-3 o/u)

Scoring runs has been a serious issue for the Blue Jays all season, but they’ve put 24 runs on the board over the last three games against AL East rivals Boston and New York.
Springer’s bat has come alive over the last two games, with the veteran outfielder crushing three home runs across a pair of three-hit outings. He’s struggled all season to this point, which resulted in his demotion down the lineup to the No. 6 spot.
Guerrero Jr. is also doing his part, posting his fourth straight multi-hit game. Vladdy is slashing an impressive .407/.407/1.00 over the last seven days with four homers and 12 RBIs.
Daulton Varsho, who carried the team offensively at times early in the season, also returned to the lineup Thursday after missing some time with a back issue. He went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts.
Bettors should be aware that Toronto’s bullpen is far from full strength, with both closer Jordan Romano and setup man Yimi Garcia on the injured list with elbow problems.

Probable starting pitchers

New York: RHP Marcus Stroman (7-3, 3.15 ERA, 6.60 K/9, 1.26 WHIP)
After an incredible month of May (1.67 ERA), Stroman has allowed 12 earned runs in 22 innings pitched (4.91) ERA while walking almost as many batters (11) as he’s struck out (12) this month. He’s coming off a decent outing against the Atlanta Braves, though, when he tossed 6 2/3 innings of three-run ball while striking out six. Stroman did cough up a pair of homers in that start but pitched well enough to pick up his seventh win of the season. This will be the righty’s third start against Toronto, his former team, this season. He pitched very well in the previous two outings, holding the Blue Jays to a .214 batting average and two runs over 11 1/3 innings pitched.
Toronto: LHP Yusei Kikuchi (4-7, 4.00 ERA, 9.29 K/9, 1.33 WHIP)
After a strong start to the season, Kikuchi has really fallen off in June, recording an ugly 6.04 ERA over five starts. His last two starts against the Cleveland Guardians and Red Sox were disastrous. The lefty was hit hard for a combined nine earned runs in just six innings over the pair of starts while allowing four homers to Boston. The good news is that he’s been fantastic in two outings against New York this year, holding the Bronx Bombers to just one run over 11 1/3 innings pitched with 16 strikeouts.

Weather

This game will very likely be played with the roof open, as forecasts are calling for temperatures around 19 C and clear skies this evening. Winds will blow from left field to right field at around 14 mph.

MLB betting trends

  • The over is 7-1 in New York’s last eight games.
  • The over is 4-0-1 in Toronto’s last five games.
  • The Blue Jays have won just eight of the 31 games (25.8%) they’ve been underdogs in this season.

MLB player prop trends

  • Stroman has walked two or more batters in five straight starts and eight of his last 10. He’s around -180 to record over 1.5 walks.
  • Blue Jays third baseman Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit safely in 11 straight games while producing multiple hits in four those contests. IKF is -220 to get a hit and +160 to record over 1.5 total bases.
  • Guerrero Jr. is seeing red right now, recording a double in three straight games (+290 to double Friday) and at least one RBI (+145 on Friday) in four straight games.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions

  • Kikuchi over 5.5 strikeouts: +115. Kikuchi has fanned 16 Yankees batters over 11 1/3 innings pitched and enjoyed great success against them this year. Yes, he’s struggled recently, but it’s unlikely he falters for a third straight start. The Yankees don’t hit lefties well (.235/.330/.377 slash line) and they have a combined 24.2% strikeout rate against southpaws this season.
  • There might some value in backing Jays outfielder Kevin Kiermaier to have some success at the plate in this contest. He’s coming off a three-hit performance Thursday and has had success in his career against Stroman (.297 average, two homers, and .902 OPS in 37 at-bats). He’s -120 to get a hit, and if you’re looking for a fun longshot, you can find juicy +1500 odds on him to homer if you shop around at a few online sportsbooks.
  • I’m also going to back Guerrero Jr. to record over 1.5 total hits + runs + RBIs at -150 odds for previously mentioned reasons.

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