Sunday’s matchup features a very interesting pitching matchup, as last year’s Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole will take on Kevin Gausman, who finished third in the Cy Young vote.

Cole had a late start to the season due to elbow inflammation and has not looked entirely like himself in his opening two outings. Gausman meanwhile owns an ERA of 4.26, including a 6.43 ERA in Games at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays have gone just 2-6 in games started by Gausman at home this season, but are priced evenly with the Yankees in today’s matchup.

Let’s dive into the odds and relevant game notes for Sunday’s matchup between the Yankees and Blue Jays:

It’s going to be very interesting to see how Cole is able to perform in this matchup, and if his stuff starts to look more true to form.

In his opening two starts his average fastball velocity has dipped to 95.2, compared to last season’s average mark of 96.7. His 2024 Stuff+ mark is still strong at 106, but that is a drastic drop off compared to his 2023 mark. Cole has obviously struggled where it counts with an ERA of 9.00 as well.

It’s early in the season for Cole to be sure, but another iffy start with lesser velocity would have to be pretty concerning to the Yankees organization.

Gausman could be catching the Yankees at the right time, as their offence is in a slump relative to the rest of the year, and is likely to be missing several key pieces.

Juan Soto was scratched from Saturday’s matchup with a hand injury and could remain sidelined in today’s matchup with an off-day looming tomorrow. Giancarlo Stanton is expected to remain sidelined with a hamstring injury until after the All-Star break. Soto holds a .996 OPS versus RHP, while Stanton holds an .840 OPS versus righties.

The Yankees have hit to a wRC+ of 112 versus right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, with a slug-rate of .419.

Similar to Cole, Gausman will also be looking to trend towards the level he displayed in the 2023 season the rest of the way. He has struggled to a 4.26 ERA this season, with an xERA of 5.34, and an xFIP of 3.61. In six starts this June Gausman has pitched to a 4.45 ERA, with a .284 expected batting average, and struck out 21% of batters faced.

His Stuff+ rating is down to 96 this season, after a rating of 106 last year. The eye-test also suggests Gausman’s splitter hasn’t featured as sharp of a break, particularly considering how much more consistently we have seen batters either able to lay off his splitter or foul it off.

Gausman has allowed a .372 slug-rate with two strikes this season, which is the second-highest mark of any qualified starting pitcher.

The Blue Jays offence has slugged .459 over the last two weeks, with a wRC+ of 131. They have hit to a wRC+ of 126 versus right-handed pitching in that span, with a 9.1% walk-rate.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has slugged .816 with a 1.226 OPS over the last two weeks. He now ranks 20th in MLB this season with an OPS of .844.

This start is going to say a lot about whether or not Cole’s form warrants legitimate concern. He certainly deserves somewhat of a pass for his horrid start so far given those outings have essentially been his Spring Training, but it’s still hard to bank on Cole pitching like his former self.

The Blue Jays’ offence is in elite form right now, both in the underlying results and in terms of the actual amount of runs scored. They have been hard on opposing righties this season, in large part because of a scrappy process at the plate. Cole’s out line was posted at 18.5 at multiple sportsbooks, and a number of 18.5 looks quite high for this matchup. At the time of writing Cole’s out-line has come off the board, but if that market is posted again, I would play 18.5 to -145.

The other prop I’m eying is a small bet on Guerrero Jr. to record a walk. He has owned Cole historically, with a 1.002 OPS and .613 slug-rate across 36 PAs. Backing Vladdy to do some damage off Cole will be a popular play and I wouldn’t disagree with that, but right now could be a good time to expect Cole to pitch Guerrero quite carefully in most circumstances.