The Blue Jays will look to earn a series win Sunday against converted reliever Mitch Spence (3.86 ERA, 44 and 1/3 IP) and the Athletics. Kevin Gausman threw his first career shutout in Saturday’s matchup, which couldn’t have come at a better time given the Blue Jays plan to throw a bullpen game in this matchup.

Bowden Francis will start the game for the Jays, hoping to better his ugly 9.00 ERA this season, albeit in a tiny 18-inning sample size.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Saturday’s matchup between the Blue Jays and Athletics:

Thanks to Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt, the Blue Jays’ bullpen enters this matchup in great shape, which is important given the situation.

John Schneider will likely be expecting Francis to get through the order at least one time at a minimum, but given a smoother outing could reach the five inning mark.

The 28 year old righty has struggled to a 5.95 xERA and 4.01 xFIP this season. He owns a Stuff+ rating of 101, and a Location+ of 103. He has also pitched to a 1.74 ERA in 10 and 1/3 innings with Triple-A Buffalo this season.

Schneider has also confirmed he will look to use Trevor Richards in this outing. Richards owns a 3.00 xERA this season, and has struck-out 25.6% of batters faced. He owns a Stuff+ rating of 88 and a Location+ rating of 98.

Aside from the injured Jordan Romano, the rest of the Jays’ bullpen should all also be available.

The Blue Jays offense as a whole continues to draw a ton of negative attention, as well as the team’s underachieving record. As a result, it feels like what has been a pretty dominant run from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. isn’t getting much respect.

Since May 1st Vladdy’ owns an OPS of .942, and a slug-rate of .504. His 174 wRC+ in that span ranks ninth in MLB.

There continues to be lots of talk about the need for swing-adjustments to help Guerrero pull the ball in the air. Still, it may not be logical to force any changes that are too significant right now, as his overall process looks pretty tremendous. In the last 146 PA’s Guerrero has struck-out just 13% of the time, and has walked 13% of the time, with a hard-hit rate of 40%.

So yes, a little more power would be ideal. It’s also safe to say there are significantly more worthy complaints to make about the Jays’ offense right now than worrying about Guerrero Jr.

Guerrero Jr. has been particularly effective against right-handed pitching recently. He’s hit to a .980 OPS and a .510 slug-rate in his last 115 PA’s versus right-handed pitchers. He’s put 25 balls in-play with exit velocities of greater than 110 MPH versus righties this season, which is the most in MLB.

Spence will look to bounce-back after his worst appearance of the season here, in which he allowed four earned runs and nine hits across six innings versus the Mariners. Spence owns a 3.25 xERA and a 3.75 xFIP in 44 and 1/3 innings of work. His stuff rates out well, as he owns a 102 Stuff+ and 103 Location+ in 2024.

Oddly enough Spence has struggled inside the pitcher friendly confines at the Coliseum so far, with a 4.62 ERA and 1.50 WHIP both considerably worse marks than his road splits.

The Athletics offense’ has remained more respectable than projected recently. Over the last 30 days they own a wRC+ of 94, which ranks 18th in baseball.

Brent Rooker continues to post incredible results, and would be worthy of a haul if the Athletics do indeed trade him prior to the deadline. His 178 wRC+ since May 1st is one of the 11 which ranks ahead of Guerrero Jr. in that span. His .893 OPS this season quietly ranks 12th in MLB.

The prices on the sides look fairly accurate in this game. My lean would be with the Blue Jays, but it might be a better approach taking your chances betting them after the Bowden Francis innings if the game is still level or even perhaps taking a long number if they are trailing.

Guerrero Jr. is priced at +105 to record over 1.5 total bases, and I believe there is value in that number. Aside from the chance Spence pitches him carefully and we see some walks, it seems likely that Guerrero should be able to manage some hard contact off of Spence. The cavernous outfield at the Coliseum should continue to help Guerrero hit for extra-bases as well.