MLB betting preview (March 31): Nationals vs. Blue Jays predictions

Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Bowden Francis (44) throws a pitch against the Philadelphia Phillies in the third inning during spring training at BayCare Ballpark.

Photo credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Mar 31, 2025, 11:41 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays will kick off a three-game series with the Washington Nationals at Rogers Centre on Monday night.

Toronto went 2-2 over the weekend in its season-opening series with the Baltimore Orioles, with three of the games soaring over the posted 8.5-run totals. Sunday’s series finale ended with a 3-1 Toronto victory backed by a solid performance from starting pitcher Chris Bassitt, who tossed six innings of one-run ball while striking out seven batters.

Washington dropped two of three games to the Philadelphia Phillies over the weekend, salvaging the final game of the series on Sunday by a score of 5-1.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Monday’s series opener between the Nationals and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365.

Nationals vs. Blue Jays odds

Nationals moneyline odds	+135
Blue Jays moneyline odds	-160
Runline odds	Blue Jays -1.5 (+125), Nationals +1.5 (-150)
Game total	Over 8.5 runs (-115), under 8.5 (-105)
Date/Time	March 31, 7:07 p.m. ET

About the Nationals (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 o/u)

The Nationals are looking to take the next step in their rebuild following a 71-91 season.

Youngsters Dylan Crews, CJ Abrams, and James Wood are being counted on to vault this team closer to .500 this season, but most oddsmakers aren’t buying the hype train by setting a win total of around 72.5 for the Nats this year.

Catcher Keibert Ruiz and Nathaniel Lowe already have two homers apiece with eight combined RBIs through three games, but the young core of Crews, Abrams, and Wood are all off to slow starts, albeit in a very small sample size.

About the Blue Jays (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 o/u)

After being thoroughly embarrassed in their home opener (12-2 loss) last Thursday, the Blue Jays rebounded to take two of the next three games against the Orioles.

Now, they’ll begin a three-game home set against the Nationals before hitting the road with stops in New York (Mets), Boston, and then Baltimore. That could prove to be a very difficult road trip in unpredictable spring weather across the Northeast, so winning this series against the Nats to move above .500 has to be top of mind.

The Blue Jays must be encouraged by the early results from Bo Bichette following his dreadful 2024 campaign. He’s slashing .467/.556/.600 with seven hits and four runs scored without striking out through four games.

Probable starting pitchers

Washington: RHP Michael Soroka (2024 stats: 0-10, 4.74 ERA, 9.49 K/9)

Once one of the more promising hurlers in MLB, Soroka’s career has been derailed by injuries since his dominant 2019 season with the Atlanta Braves. After a long year primarily pitching out of the bullpen for the Chicago White Sox, the Canadian right-hander now finds himself in the starting rotation with the Nationals, looking to get his career back on track. Opponents hit under .200 against his slider (.168) and four-seamer (.198) last season, but his sinker and changeup were well below league average.

Toronto: RHP Bowden Francis (2024 stats: 8-5, 3.30 ERA, 7.99 K/9)

The pressure will be on Francis to pick up right where he left off last season, when he posted an incredible 5-3 record with a 1.80 ERA across 11 games after the All-Star break. He even took a pair of no-hit bids into the ninth inning during that span, cementing himself as a rotation staple moving forward into 2025. He’ll largely have the element of surprise in this matchup with the Nationals, as the entire roster only has 10 career at-bats against him, with five of them belonging to Lowe.

Notable injuries

The Nationals haven’t added anyone to the injured list since the season began.

The Blue Jays placed pitcher Max Scherzer (lat) on the injured list following his start Saturday. He joins outfielder Daulton Varsho (shoulder), reliever Ryan Burr (shoulder), and reliever Erik Swanson (forearm) on the shelf.

Weather

With weather forecasts projecting temperatures around 5 C this evening, the retractable dome at Rogers Centre will likely be closed.

Nationals vs. Blue Jays betting trends

The Nationals are 7-3 in the past 10 meetings, with the over cashing in seven of those games.
Toronto went 20-26 in interleague play last season.

Nationals vs. Blue Jays player prop trends

Andres Gimenez has opened the season with a four-game hitting streak, including a pair of homers against the Orioles. He’s actually collected at least one hit in nine of his past 10 games dating back to the playoffs last year and is around -220 to extend that streak against the Nationals on Monday.
Ruiz also boasts a seven-game hitting streak dating back to last season and has multi-hit games in two of the first three contests this season. He’s around -200 to secure a hit against the Blue Jays.
Lowe has homered in back-to-back games in four of his past five dating back to last season. He’s around +700 to go deep against Toronto.
Bichette has scored a run in three of the first four games of the season for the Blue Jays, scoring a total of four times. He’s around -125 to plate against the Nats.

Nationals vs. Blue Jays best bet

Francis over 4.5 strikeouts: -108 (best odds @ PROLINE + in Ontario only, otherwise -124 @ Pinnacle). Francis got his pitch count up to 83 in his final spring start, so he should be good to throw around 100 in this juicy matchup with the Nationals, who struck out 39 times (an average of 13 per game) in their three-game series with the Phillies. Francis has also had success in a small sample size against the four Nationals players that have previously faced him, holding Abrams, Lowe, Ruiz, and Jacob Young to just two hits in 10 at-bats with four strikeouts. Francis beat this line in seven of his final nine starts last season, averaging 6.2 strikeouts per game with a median of six punchouts in that span.