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MLB betting preview (May 1): Red Sox vs. Blue Jays predictions

Boston Red Sox left fielder Jarren Duran (16) runs to thurd base on an overthrow at second base by the Toronto Blue Jays during the second inning at Rogers Centre.

Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

By Greg Warren

May 1, 2025, 12:41 EDT

The Toronto Blue Jays will wrap up a three-game series with the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre on Thursday evening.

Toronto snapped a three-game losing streak with a thrilling 7-6 come-from-behind victory on Wednesday after Boston took the first game of the series in convincing fashion. Boston built a 6-0 lead before the Blue Jays stormed back to score seven unanswered runs, capped by Alejandro Kirk’s game-winning single in the 10th inning.

Boston had its three-game winning streak snapped with the loss and is now 2-4 against Toronto this season.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Thursday’s series finale between the Red Sox and Blue Jays, courtesy of bet365.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds

Red Sox moneyline odds	-110
Blue Jays moneyline odds	-110
Runline odds	Blue Jays -1.5 (+185), Red Sox +1.5 (-225)
Game total	Over 8.5 runs (-115), Under 8.5 runs (-105)
Date/Time	May 1, 7:07 p.m. ET

About the Red Sox (17-15 SU, 16-16 ATS, 16-15-1 o/u)

Lucas Giolito, making his Red Sox debut Wednesday, held the Blue Jays scoreless through five innings until he ran into some serious trouble in the sixth inning, when he coughed up a pair of homers to Daulton Varsho and Kirk. Overall, it was a solid debut for Giolito, who has been plagued with injuries since signing with Boston before the 2024 season, as he allowed just three runs over six innings while striking out seven. Unfortunately, his debut was spoiled by the bullpen, which couldn’t hold a three-run lead down the stretch of the game.

The good news is that Boston continues to put up huge offensive numbers after stacking another six runs up on Wednesday. The Red Sox have scored a whopping 36 runs over their last four games, an average of nine per game during that span. They’ve also clubbed 14 homers and posted an .878 team OPS over the last seven days.

About the Blue Jays (14-16 SU, 18-12 ATS, 12-18 o/u)

The Blue Jays were finally able to put some runs on the board Wednesday, snapping a streak of 11 straight games scoring four runs or fewer. They swatted three homers in the victory, bringing their team total to 19 this season, which still ranks second-to-last in the league behind the Kansas City Royals (14 homers). It was the first time Toronto had hit three homers in a game this season.

Wednesday’s offensive outburst should give the team some momentum heading into Thursday’s contest against Boston’s projected starter, Tanner Houck, who has been very hittable this season.

Probable starting pitchers

Boston: RHP Tanner Houck (0-2, 7.58 ERA, 7.28 K/9)

Houck isn’t looking like the pitcher who qualified for his first All-Star Game last season.

The right-hander has allowed five or more hits in five of his six starts, and he’s coming off a mediocre outing against the Cleveland Guardians in which he allowed four runs over five innings. However, Houck was solid in a previous start against Toronto in April, holding the Blue Jays to one run over 6 2/3 innings. Pretty much all of his advanced metrics are below league average this year.

Toronto: RHP Jose Berrios (1-1, 4.24 ERA, 7.41 K/9)

Berrios is coming off a fine outing against the New York Yankees, holding the Bronx Bombers scoreless over 5 1/3 innings while striking out four. He’s been solid aside from his first start of the year against the Baltimore Orioles (six ER on nine hits) and pitched well against the Red Sox early last month, throwing seven innings of one-run ball.

His slurve, which he primarily uses against left-handed batters, has been particularly effective, holding opponents to a .182 batting average (.207 xBA). That’s important because Boston typically deploys a lefty-heavy lineup, led by Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, and Triston Casas, among others.

Notable injuries

Pitchers Richard Fitts (pectoral), Kutter Crawford (knee), and Patrick Sandoval (elbow) are all on the injured list for the Red Sox. Catcher Connor Wong (finger) and outfielder/designated hitter Masataka Yoshida (shoulder) are also on the shelf.

Pitchers Ryan Burr (shoulder), Erik Swanson (forearm), Nick Sandlin (lat), and Max Scherzer (thumb) are all on the injured list for the Blue Jays.

Weather

It’ll be rainy and cold in Toronto on Thursday night, so the retractable dome will be closed.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays betting trends

The over is 7-1 in Boston’s last eight games.
The Red Sox have covered the first five innings runline in 11 of their last 14 games.
The under is 9-3 in the past 12 meetings between these teams.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays player prop trends

Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman has hit safely in 10 straight games and is -280 to extend that streak. He’s homered in back-to-back games (+440 odds on Thursday to go deep), and he’s exceeded his line of 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in 10 straight games (-145 odds to beat that line again).
Devers carries a five-game hitting streak into action and is -240 to extend that streak. He’s also driven in at least one run in five straight contests and is +130 to record over 0.5 RBIs.
Berrios has issued two or more walks in five of his six starts this season, including three against the Red Sox earlier this year. He’s -125 to record over 1.5 walks.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays best bets

Houck over 2.5 earned runs: +105 for one unit (best odds @ bet365). Houck has exceeded this number in four of his six starts this season, but more importantly, the Blue Jays should have some serious offensive momentum after Wednesday night’s thrilling walk-off victory. Four Blue Jays starters (Bo Bichette, Ernie Clement, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., and Varsho) are hitting .300 or better in their careers vs. Houck.
Duran over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs: -155 for one unit (best odds @ Sports Interaction). Duran has nine hits in 18 career at-bats (1.778 OPS) against Berrios with three homers and five RBIs. Additionally, he’s seeing red right now, slashing .393/.433/.643 with six runs scored and six RBIs over the last seven days. He’s surpassed this line in 10 of his last 11 games overall, and 15 of his 19 career games against Toronto, so I’m willing to eat the juice on this prop Thursday.