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MLB betting preview (May 14): Rays vs. Blue Jays predictions
Tampa Bay Rays designated hitter Brandon Lowe (8) reacts after hitting a single against the Toronto Blue Jays during the ninth inning at Rogers Centre.
Photo credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
Greg Warren
May 14, 2025, 13:20 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays will be back in action Wednesday after suffering a heartbreaking defeat in their series opener with the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday at Rogers Centre.
Toronto took a 7-6 lead into the ninth inning after Daulton Varsho launched his second homer of the game, a three-run shot, to put the Blue Jays ahead after they trailed all game, but closer Jeff Hoffman imploded in the top of the ninth, allowing five runs on four hits, including a grand slam to Junior Caminero, to allow the Rays to walk away with an 11-9 victory and snap the Blue Jays’ four-game winning streak.
Tampa’s 11 runs scored were the most in a single game since the team cruised to a 16-1 victory over the Boston Red Sox on April 14.
Let’s take a look at the game odds for Wednesday’s clash between the Rays and Blue Jays courtesy of bet365.

Rays vs. Blue Jays odds

Rays moneyline odds
+130
Blue Jays moneyline odds
-155
Runline odds
Blue Jays -1.5 (+135), Rays +1.5 (-160)
Game total
Over 8 runs (-115), Under 8 (-105)
Date/Time
May 14, 7:07 p.m. ET

About the Rays (19-22 SU, 19-22 ATS, 16-23-2 o/u)

The Rays have struggled offensively this season, but they feasted on Toronto pitching Tuesday, putting up 11 runs on 10 hits. Former Blue Jay Danny Jansen homered and accounted for two of those hits to extend his career-best on-base streak to 18 games. He boasts an impressive .438 on-base percentage over the last 15 days and has a pair of multi-hit efforts over his last four games.
The Rays have won eight of their last nine away games to improve their record to 8-5 straight up and 8-5 on the runline on the road. Their pitching staff has held the opposition to a .204 batting average in those 13 road games, the lowest mark in baseball.
Designated hitter Yandy Diaz won’t be available for this series due to a passport issue. He was placed on the restricted list so the team could call up infielder Coco Montes from the minors.

About the Blue Jays (20-21 SU, 25-16 ATS, 21-20 o/u)

Should the Blue Jays begin contemplating a closer change? Hoffman has coughed up 11 earned runs across his last five appearances and he’s blown two saves this month. He was roughed up in back-to-back outings against the Los Angeles Angels last week but then rebounded with a solid pair of appearances over the weekend against the Seattle Mariners prior to his latest dud on Tuesday night. After posting an incredible 1.35 ERA in April, Hoffman’s ERA has ballooned to 24.75 this month, raising his ERA to a lofty 6.05 on the season. Setup man Yimi Garcia has also stumbled recently, but Chad Green has been very good this month (1.59 ERA with a save and a hold), and he has previous closing experience.
On a more positive note, the Blue Jays did explode for four home runs on Tuesday to raise their team total to 34 on the season and get out of the basement in that statistical category. They’ve hit fairly well at home this season, posting a .743 team OPS (13th in the majors), but their pitchers have coughed up 40 home runs at Rogers Centre, tied with the Rays for the most allowed at a home venue this season.

Probable starting pitchers

Tampa Bay: RHP Ryan Pepiot (2-4, 3.86 ERA, 7.71 K/9)
Aside from one rough outing against the Red Sox in April (6 ER over 6 IP), Pepiot has allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his eight starts this season. He held a very good Philadelphia Phillies team to just one run on two hits over six innings last time out, so he’ll bring some confidence into this start against Toronto. Pepiot’s Statcast metrics aren’t very convincing, though, but his offspeed run value ranks in the 97th percentile as hitters continue to struggle with his changeup (.133 BA), cutter (.125 BA), and curveball (.200).
Toronto: RHP Chris Bassitt (3-2, 3.35 ERA, 9.66 K/9)
After a very strong start to the season, Bassitt appears to be fading a bit over his last four starts, as he’s allowed 15 earned runs and at least three in each start during that span. He’s surrendered a pair of homers in each of his last three starts, but he’s done a great job of limiting walks overall this season, ranking in the 93rd percentile in walk rate. Bassitt has excelled in three outings at Rogers Centre this season, authoring a 2.20 ERA with 21 strikeouts over 16 1/3 innings.

Notable injuries

Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim (shoulder), outfielder Jake Magnum (groin), pitcher Shane McClanahan (triceps), and outfielder Josh Lowe (oblique) are on the injured list for Tampa.
Pitchers Ryan Burr (shoulder), Erik Swanson (forearm), Nick Sandlin (lat), and Max Scherzer (thumb) are all on the injured list for the Blue Jays. A few key positional players are also banged up, with Andres Gimenez (quad) also on the IL, and catcher Alejandro Kirk (head) is a game-time decision.

Weather

It’ll likely be another indoor ballgame at Rogers Centre as temperatures will only be 16 C at first pitch under partly cloudy skies.

Rays vs. Blue Jays betting trends

  • The Rays are 8-3 SU in the past 11 meetings between the teams.
  • The over is 9-0 in Toronto’s last nine games.
  • The Rays have covered the runline in eight of their last nine road games.

Rays vs. Blue Jays player prop trends

  • Blue Jays third baseman Ernie Clement has hit safely in seven straight games and is -185 to extend that streak on Wednesday. Clement has also beaten his line of 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in six straight contests and is +110 to achieve that feat again.
  • Bassitt’s line of 18.5 outs recorded for this game seems a bit lofty considering he’s exceeded that mark in just one of his eight starts this season while averaging 17.1 outs recorded. He’s around -190 to record under 18.5 outs.
  • Varsho has homered in four of his nine games this season and is coming off a two-homer performance on Tuesday. He’s around +440 to go deep again, but he’s 0-for-4 in his career against Pepiot.

Rays vs. Blue Jays best bet

  • Brandon Lowe over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs: +105 for one unit (best odds @ Sports Interaction). Lowe is hitting just .147 with five RBIs and five runs scored this month, but he could be turning a corner after a two-hit performance that included a pair of RBIs and two runs scored on Tuesday against Toronto. But the real reason why we’re backing Lowe in this spot is because of his awesome career splits against Bassitt: 5-for-11, three home runs, and seven RBIs. Lowe also loves hitting at Rogers Centre, where he went 5-for-11 with a pair of homers, five RBIs, and three runs scored last season.

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