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MLB betting preview (May 9): Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions
Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29) hits a double against the Toronto Blue Jays in the fifth inning at Rogers Centre.
Photo credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
Greg Warren
May 9, 2025, 10:36 EDTUpdated: May 9, 2025, 10:39 EDT
The Toronto Blue Jays will begin a three-game series with the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on Friday night.
Toronto snapped a four-game losing streak with an 8-5 win over the Los Angeles Angels on Thursday and is 1-2 on its current six-game road trip.
The Mariners, meanwhile, are coming off back-to-back victories over the Athletics and have won eight of their last 10 games to sit atop the AL West Division standings.
Let’s take a look at the game odds for Friday’s clash between the Blue Jays and Mariners, courtesy of bet365.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners odds

Blue Jays moneyline odds
+115
Mariners moneyline odds
-135
Runline odds
Mariners -1.5 (+155), Blue Jays +1.5 (-185)
Game total
Over 7.5 runs (+105), Under 7.5 (-125)
Date/time
May 9, 9:40 p.m. ET

About the Blue Jays (17-20 SU, 22-15 ATS, 17-20 o/u)

After a pair of late collapses in a row, the Blue Jays staged a come-from-behind win of their own on Thursday by rallying from four runs down to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Angels. Daulton Varsho homered and drove in three runs on three hits as part of a 14-hit day for Toronto, which has struggled to produce runs consistently this season.
The Blue Jays are averaging just 3.65 runs per game this season (25th in the majors) while hitting the fewest home runs in baseball (26). They also struggle to produce with runners in scoring position, ranking 26th in the majors with a .635 OPS in those situations.
After a strong start, Toronto’s staff ERA has ballooned to 4.38 (23rd in the majors) over the last couple of weeks. Its bullpen is a particular area of concern lately, as Yimi Garcia and closer Jeff Hoffman have been downright awful over their last couple of appearances.

About the Mariners (22-14 SU, 18-18 ATS, 21-13-2 o/u)

The Mariners have been known for their strong pitching over the last few seasons, but their bats have been doing the talking to begin this season. They’re averaging 5.1 runs per game (fifth in the majors) with a .340 team on-base percentage (second in baseball). They’ve also been hitting for power, bashing 51 home runs, led by Cal Raleigh’s 12 blasts, which is tied for the most in baseball along with Kyle Schwarber and Aaron Judge. Jorge Polanco is also off to a fine start, boasting a .348/.396/.707 slash line with nine homers through 28 games.
Seattle’s starting pitching staff was expected to be one of the best in the majors at the onset of the new season, but they rank in the middle of the pack in most key statistical categories to this point. However, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this well-rounded group rise to the upper echelon as the season progresses.

Probable starting pitchers

Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (2-3, 3.83 ERA, 8.33 K/9)
Gausman threw six scoreless innings with nine strikeouts against the Cleveland Guardians the last time he took the hill, so he’ll have some confidence coming into this start. He was crushed by the New York Yankees for six runs in just 2 2/3 innings of work in his previous start, though. The right-hander bulked up in the offseason and is throwing slightly harder this year, averaging 0.5 mph more on his fastball this year, and that has yielded better results. Opponents are hitting just .200 and .133, respectively, off his fastball and devastating splitter this season.
Seattle: RHP Luis Castillo (3-2, 3.29 ERA, 7.04 K/9)
Castillo has been fantastic this season, aside from one bad start against the Cincinnati Reds in April (6 ER on 7 hits). He threw six innings of one-run ball last time out against the Texas Rangers, one start after holding the Miami Marlins scoreless over six frames. The veteran right-hander was knocked around by the Blue Jays for 10 hits but limited the damage to only three runs in a start at the Rogers Centre on April 20.
A quick look at the 32-year-old’s Statcast metrics reveals underwhelming results, though, as the opposition has managed a 44.9% hard-hit rate against the righty, which ranks in the 27th percentile. He also owns a 4.07 Expected ERA, and opponents are barrelling him up at a 10.2% rate (29th percentile). It should be noted that Castillo has pitched incredibly well in four home starts this season, authoring a 1.57 ERA while holding opponents to a .171 batting average.

Notable injuries

Pitchers Ryan Burr (shoulder), Erik Swanson (forearm), Nick Sandlin (lat), and Max Scherzer (thumb) are all on the injured list for the Blue Jays. Second baseman Andres Gimenez is also day-to-day with right quad tightness.
Starting pitchers George Kirby (shoulder) and Logan Gilbert (elbow) are on the injured list for the Mariners. Outfielders Luke Raley (oblique) and Victor Robles (shoulder) are also on the IL.

Weather

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 16 C with clear skies this evening in Seattle, so there’s a slight chance we could see the retractable roof at T-Mobile Park open on Friday. Winds will blow in from left field at 5 mph.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners betting trends

  • The over is 5-0 in Toronto’s last five games.
  • The over is 9-2 in Seattle’s last 11 games.
  • The Blue Jays have hit the team total under in 13 of their last 18 road games.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners player prop trends

  • Castillo has issued two or more walks in seven straight starts and nine of his last 10 dating back to last season. He’s -175 to record over 1.5 walks.
  • Mariners shortstop J.P. Crawford is riding a 15-game hitting streak, including seven multi-hit performances in that span, into action on Friday. He’s -180 to record a hit.
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit safely in 10 straight games and is coming off a three-hit performance against the Angels on Thursday. He’s -225 to record at least one hit.
  • Mariners third baseman Dylan Moore has stolen a base in back-to-back games and is +270 to swipe a bag on Friday. Gausman is also one of the easiest pitchers to steal against in the majors.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners best bet

  • Cal Raleigh over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs: -110 for one unit (best odds @ Sports Interaction). Raleigh has beaten this line in eight of his last 10 games while averaging 2.9 per game, and boasts awesome career splits against Gausman, going 5-for-11 with three homers off the righty. Seattle’s catcher is also in fine form at the plate right now, slashing .333/.500/.722 with two home runs and seven RBIs through six games this month. If you’re looking for a home run bet on Friday, the best odds available on Raleigh to go deep can be found at FanDuel (+310).

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