The Toronto Blue Jays showed a ton of resilience in bouncing back from a heartbreaking 18-inning loss in Game 3 with a pair of convincing road victories, and have earned the opportunity to cap off their magical season on Friday in storybook fashion on their home field.

History is within reach for the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on Friday, but it won’t come easy, as they are tasked with solving Yoshinobu Yamamoto in what will be a rematch of Game 2, with Kevin Gausman set to start for Toronto. Yamamoto allowed just four hits and one earned run during a complete-game masterpiece in Game 2, and holds a minuscule 1.57 ERA across 28 2/3 innings this postseason.

Oddsmakers have priced Game 6 identically as Game 2, and offer the Dodgers a 60% chance of extending the series based on their current price of -150 on the moneyline.

Dodgers starter Blake Snell stated his belief that he had an unlucky outing in his Game 5 postgame interview. Perhaps Snell was a little unlucky to ultimately be hung with five earned runs, although it certainly isn’t a great look to say that after giving up solo home runs to the first two batters.

Looking at it from a broader perspective, though, there is no doubting that the Blue Jays are deserving of their 3-2 lead in the series. They have outscored the Dodgers 29 to 20 and lost the only game that really could have gone either way (Game 3).

The Jays hold a higher expected batting average in the series and have outhit Los Angeles 53 to 38. The underlying numbers state that the Blue Jays put more quality balls in play, and on top of that, Toronto’s elite fielding has shone through, as they have also outperformed Los Angeles defensively.

While the Blue Jays’ elite offence has certainly won out versus the Dodgers’ high-powered starting rotation overall in this series, they certainly struggled with Yamamoto in Game 2 and will need to make some adjustments to be more productive in tonight’s matchup.

The underlying results do suggest that the Jays hit Yamamoto more effectively than the final box score suggested, though, as Yamamoto allowed a 43% hard-hit rate and .256 xBA. He was able to rack up eight strikeouts, however, including several in key moments, but was aided by a long zone from umpire Adrian Johnson in Game 2, though Johnson did give many iffy calls both ways.

It will be interesting to see what kind of leash Dave Roberts offers Yamamoto in this do-or-die matchup. The Dodgers’ bullpen has struggled to an ERA of 4.56 and xFIP of 5.27 this postseason, so they will certainly be keen to get some length from Yamamoto.

However, by the third time through the order, most Jays batters will be getting their seventh look at Yamamoto in the series, and historical data suggests that is a concern for the Dodgers ace.

It only feels right that it has worked out for Gausman to get the start in this potentially historic moment for the Blue Jays franchise. Not only because he was the Blue Jays’ best starter this season, but because of what he has meant to the team and city since arriving in 2022, in being a model teammate and consummate professional.

Gausman has pitched to an ERA of 2.55 across 24 2/3 innings of work this postseason. His underlying results are less convincing, as he holds a 4.71 xERA and 4.96 xFIP. His underlying metrics in Game 2 were a little more convincing, though, as he allowed an xBA of .219 and struck out 25% of batters faced while not walking a batter.

Gausman’s high-quality splitter was effective in the previous matchup versus the Dodgers, as the Dodgers had just one hit from the eight at-bats ending with the splitter and struck out five times against it.

Trey Yesavage’s incredible Game 5 start was particularly important for the Blue Jays, as by handling seven full innings, the Dodgers only got another look at Jeff Hoffman out of the Blue Jays’ most important high-leverage relievers.

It’s a point that has been beaten to death in these game guides, but the way the Blue Jays have hit elite starting pitchers this postseason has been incredibly impressive. Per Paul Hembekides (@PaulHembo on X), the Yankees, Mariners, and Dodgers starting rotations have pitched to an ERA of 6.66 in 73 innings versus Toronto this postseason. The Colorado Rockies’ starting rotation allowed an ERA of 6.65 during the regular season, which was the worst mark of any team since earned runs became official in 1913.

The Blue Jays rank first in MLB with a wRC+ of 129 this postseason and also rank first in expected weighted on-base average. They have struck out only 16.3% of the time, which is a lower rate than any team managed in the regular season. The Blue Jays’ minuscule strikeout rate this postseason is particularly impressive given that at this time of year, the majority of at-bats are coming against truly elite pitchers.

John Schneider stated that George Springer “kind of checked every box physically so far” on Thursday, and it seems quite possible that he will return to the starting lineup Friday after missing Games 4 and 5 due to injury.

Oddsmakers have not been moved by the Blue Jays’ offensive performances in Games 4 and 5, as the betting prices on this game are still the same as they were in Game 2.

Obviously, the Blue Jays are yet to prove that they can get to Yamamoto, but the underlying results suggest that the Blue Jays hit him respectably in Game 2, and Toronto has been able to figure out all the other elite starters it has faced this postseason. Gausman’s modest underlying results this postseason also likely factor into the betting prices remaining the same in this matchup as they did in Game 2.

Just as we felt ahead of Game 5, the Blue Jays’ potential paths to success seem to be underrated in this matchup. Gausman is more than capable of powering the Jays to a win with a dominant outing, or if needed, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see Toronto hit Yamamoto much more effectively than in Game 2.

Neither bullpen appears to be offering much of an edge, and I’m not sold that the disparity between Yamamoto and Gausman is so significant that the Dodgers still deserve to be this favoured when Toronto has been drastically more productive in the series.

After hitting on the Blue Jays to win at +170, these guides are up 8.2 units this season (23-17-1). Much of that success comes down to the fact that I’ve believed in this Blue Jays team, and at +125, I believe we are getting a good price to see if they can close out a magical championship run on Friday.

There also looks to be value in a smaller wager parlaying the Blue Jays to win and Yamamoto to record under 18.5 outs, given how long the price is and the strong correlation between the two legs. If things go smoothly, Yamamoto is obviously capable of clearing that line. But if Toronto is hitting him well, Roberts will likely go to his bullpen early in this do-or-die spot, which would obviously be the case in many of the Blue Jays’ winning game scripts.