After two explosive offensive performances at the Rogers Centre, the Blue Jays will look to close out the series on Tuesday as it shifts to Yankee Stadium. Shane Bieber (3.57 ERA, 40 and 1/3 IP) will make his first playoff start since October 14th, 2022, a matchup that also took place at Yankee Stadium. Carlos Rodon (3.09 ERA, 195 and 1/3 IP) will make his second start of the postseason after allowing three earned runs across six innings of work in the Wild Card round.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Tuesday’s matchup between the Blue Jays and Yankees, courtesy of bet365.

The Blue Jays will look to avoid an offensive letdown on Tuesday as the series shifts to Yankee Stadium, after two dominant performances at the Rogers Centre. While Max Fried was a more effective starter than Rodon this season, some valid arguments suggest this game actually offers the Blue Jays a tougher challenge to produce offensively than Game Two did.

Relative to other elite starters, Fried pitches to contact and does not generate a ton of whiffs. The Blue Jays had seen Fried four times this season before Game Two and generated plenty of solid contact while striking out at an alarmingly low rate in those matchups. Fried also has not been overly effective in the postseason historically, pitching to an ERA of 5.31 in 76 and 1/3 innings of work.

Rodon will be making his third start of the season versus the Blue Jays in this matchup and owns an ERA of 3.60 in the previous two outings.

The Blue Jays were drastically more productive offensively when playing at the Rogers Centre this season compared to on the road, hitting to a wRC+ of 120 and playing to a record of 54-27. Toronto was still a better-than-average offensive side when playing on the road, finishing with a sixth-ranked wRC+ of 105, but that did not translate to team success, as it finished with a record of 40-41.

The Blue Jays struggled to a wRC+ of 89 versus left-handed pitching in the final month of the season, but looked more like the team we saw from May to August in Game Two versus Fried. Across the entirety of the season, the Blue Jays had plenty of success versus lefties, ranking fourth in wRC+ and finishing with the second-lowest strikeout rate in MLB.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s incredible start to the series has been the biggest story for Toronto offensively, as he has lived up to his potential in going 6-for-9 at the plate with two home runs and six RBIs. Guerrero has gone 10-for-17 in his career versus Rodon, with an OPS of .941, as well as four BBs.

Considering Guerrero’s historic dominance versus Rodon and piping hot start to the series, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Yankees pitch Guerrero quite carefully in this matchup, though Alejandro Kirk does provide excellent insulation for Guerrero.

In 40 and 1/3 innings of work this season, Bieber pitched to an ERA of 3.57 and an xFIP of 3.35. While Bieber has generally located his pitches quite well this season (106 Location+), his stuff has not graded out overly well, which could be part of the reason batters have consistently capitalized on his mistakes, as Bieber has allowed 1.79 HR/9.

The Yankees’ offensive surge at the end of Game Two was somewhat meaningless with the game out of reach, but it could inspire some confidence in the lineup as the series shifts to New York for this do-or-die matchup. While they would probably be happy to see anyone but Trey Yesavage take the mound in this game, a matchup at home versus a soft-throwing righty who has allowed plenty of home runs could prove particularly favourable.

The Yankees finished the regular season with a wRC+ of 120 at Yankee Stadium and tied for first with a wRC+ of 118 versus right-handed pitching.

New York struggled to a -2.2 runs above average rating versus split-fingered fastballs this season, and that was a weakness that Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage took full advantage of in Games One and Two. Bieber does not throw a splitter, and his four-seamer and cutter both held below-average ratings this season.

Rodon finished the regular season with an ERA of 3.09 across 195 1/3 innings of work and held a solid underlying profile, including an xERA of 3.32 and an xFIP of 3.89. He finished the season in comparably strong form, pitching to an ERA of 2.61 and xFIP of 3.63 in his final five starts.

While it’s been all Blue Jays to start this series, things could get dicey in a hurry if the Yankees can turn the tide with a win in this favourable matchup and force a Game 4 pitting Cam Schlittler versus the Blue Jays’ bullpen.

In terms of betting on a side in Game Three, my lean is with the Yankees at -150. However, there seems to be more value in betting the series to go five games at +170, considering the Game 4 pitching matchup. Betting on this series to go five games at a long price also offers an emotional hedge for those who don’t believe that type of thing is bad voodoo for their favourite side.

At +140, I also see strong value in betting on Guerrero to record a walk in this matchup. Rodon walked eight batters in 11 and 1/3 innings versus the Blue Jays this season, including one walk versus Guerrero in particular. As noted, we might be reaching a point where the Yankees pitch Vladdy quite carefully, and with that in mind, a price of +140 looks quite appealing.