The Blue Jays are priced as slight betting underdogs on Friday in the opener of a critical three-game series versus the Yankees, who trail Toronto by three games in the division.

Per FanGraphs, the Blue Jays have a 71.7% chance of winning the AL East entering this pivotal series. Their head-to-head success versus New York is the direct cause for their lead, as Toronto is 7-3 in its head-to-head matchups versus the Yankees this season.

At the time of writing, the Blue Jays are priced at +110 to win Friday’s matchup, as oddsmakers are giving respect to Yankees starter Cam Schittler’s (2.61 ERA, 48 and 1/3 IP) excellent start to the season. Kevin Gausman (3.75 ERA, 160 and 2/3 IP) will make his fourth start of the season versus the Yankees.

Let’s dive into the game odds for Friday’s matchup between the Blue Jays and the Yankees:

The Blue Jays’ relief staff remains the team’s greatest concern entering this series, after their bullpen struggled to close out the final two games of the team’s series in Cincinnati despite Toronto combining to score 25 runs across the two matchups.

Over the last 30 days, Toronto’s bullpen has held an ERA of 5.00 across 86 and 1/3 innings of work. The bullpen’s numbers are even worse, looking at only high-leverage spots during that span, as it holds an ERA of 6.50 in those situations, as well as a BB/9 rate of 6.0.

Gausman has remained in steady form recently and has likely earned the right to pitch one of the first two matchups of the postseason. Gausman has pitched to an ERA of 3.55 across six starts since August 1st. He holds an xFIP of 3.39 during that span and has allowed an xBA of .262, compared to an actual batting average of .199. His pitch metrics are slightly below average during that time frame, including a Stuff+ of 99 and a Pitching+ of 99.

Dating back to June 1st, the Blue Jays have been the most productive team in baseball, a point that was on full display during their productive series versus the Reds. Since June 1st, the Jays hold the top wRC+ in MLB by a considerable margin (125), as well as the best BB/K ratio and the highest weighted on-base average.

Since the All-Star break, Toronto also holds the highest wRC+ versus right-handed pitching, as well as a .366 weighted on-base average.

Anthony Santander remains the only position player on the IL entering this critical series.

The Blue Jays will have a slight advantage in this matchup, as the Yankees wrapped up a three-game series in Houston Thursday evening before flying home for this series.

While New York’s bullpen projects to be quite dominant on paper, it has been a concern recently, even if it still has to be viewed as a strength relative to what the Blue Jays are offering. Since the trade deadline, Yankees relievers have held an ERA of 4.77 and have been asked to pitch a league-high 10.8 innings.

This game will be Schittler’s second start of the season versus the Blue Jays, and he was able to lead his team to victory on July 22nd, allowing seven hits and two earned runs across five innings of work. At that time, Schittler was making only his second start of the season, and it was simply speculation that the Yankees’ top pitching prospect could already be a difference maker at the MLB level.

While Schittler’s underlying profile suggests he’s not been quite as dominant as his 2.61 ERA suggests, he’s certainly still lived up to the hype. Across 48 and 1/3 innings of work, Schittler holds an xERA of 3.59 and an xFIP of 3.67. He holds strong pitch metrics (114 Stuff+, 114 Pitching+) and a strikeout minus walk rate of 17.1%.

Gausman will face a tough test in this matchup as he faces a Yankees side that holds the highest wRC+ versus righties over the last two seasons combined and has remained in similarly excellent form recently. Over the last month, the Yankees have hit to a wRC+ of 129 versus righties, which trails only the Blue Jays and New York Mets.

While this matchup does feature two quality starters, a total of 9 still appears to be too low when you consider the tremendous form of both offenses and the shaky results from both bullpens.

Both sides have been able to hang up plenty of crooked numbers recently and offer deep lineups that have exhibited excellent plate discipline. Both starters’ underlying numbers suggest they have been in slightly lesser form recently than their ERA suggests, and even if one can pitch a gem, it’s entirely possible their side will blow the lead late and help get the over home.

At -110 or better, I see value in betting the opener of this critical series to be a high-scoring affair, especially given that Yankee Stadium has played as the 12th-best ballpark for run creation over the last two seasons.