The moneyline trends explain the high total for the Toronto Blue Jays’ first home game this season against a division rival with suspect pitching. The Blue Jays are -165 favorites at home against the Baltimore Orioles, who are +152 underdogs with an 11.0-run total on the MLB odds for Thursday night at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com (how the moneyline works).

The Blue Jays are 13-7 in their last 20 games as a home favorite against the Orioles, with the total going UNDER 11 times at online sports betting sites. But Toronto’s record over 13 games as a -150 to -180 home favorite is 8-5, with the total going OVER eight times. Baltimore is 0-13 in its last 13 outings as an away underdog of +130 to +170, with the total going OVER seven times with one PUSH.

The Orioles are 23-51 this season, and their average of 3.97 runs scored per game ranks 24th among the 30 MLB teams. They are 20th in OPS at .693 and have some solid home-run threats in Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle and Cedric Mullins, but are tied for last in MLB in bases on balls drawn. On the pitching side, the Orioles are 30th in earned-run average (5.35). They  are ranked 25th in relief ERA (4.87).

The Blue Jays, who have a 37-35 record, are MLB’s fourth-highest scoring team at 4.94 runs per game. They are second in OPS (.768), on the strength of being tied for second in MLB with 107 home runs. Toronto is 14th in MLB in ERA (4.03), and their bullpen ranks 13th in relief ERA (3.92).

Toronto lefthander Anthony Kay (0-2, 6.43 ERA, 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings) will start on Thursday, opposite Baltimore righthander Dean Kremer (0-6, 6.20 ERA, 8.2 SO/9). The Blue Jays are 2-4 in Kay’s six career starts, with a 3-3 split on the totals. He has a 4.32 ERA in 8.1 innings against the Orioles. Kremer had a quality start (two earned runs across six innings) against Toronto last week, but the Orioles are 2-5 in his last seven away-underdog starts. The total has gone UNDER four times.

Righthander Alek Manoah (1-0, 4.18 ERA, 10.3 SO/9) will start on Friday against the same team that he was ejected against on June 19 for hitting Baltimore’s Maikel Franco with a pitch. Righthander Matt Harvey (3-9, 7.80 ERA, 7.7 SO/9) will start for Baltimore. The Blue Jays are 4-1 in Manoah’s five starts, with a 2-2-1 totals split. Baltimore is 0-4 in Harvey’s last four away starts, and the total has gone OVER in his last six starts on the road.

Lefthander Hyun Jin Ryu (6-4, 3.25 ERA, 7.5 SO/9) will start on Saturday against fellow lefty Keegan Akin (0-3, 6.42 ERA, 8.6 SO/9). Ryu’s teams are 15-5 in his last 20 home starts, but that includes defeats in his only two starts this season at Sahlen Field in Buffalo. The total has gone OVER in 13 of those starts. Ryu does have a 2.52 career ERA against Baltimore. The Orioles are 2-5 in Akin’s last seven away starts, with the OVER hitting four times. He has a 4.91 ERA in 7.1 innings against Toronto, with four home runs allowed.

On Sunday, Ross Stripling (2-4, 4.33 ERA, 9.7 SO/9) will start opposite fellow righty Jorge López (2-9, 5.68 ERA, 9.0 SO/9). Stripling has a 2.29 ERA in his last six games, but his teams are only 10-10 in his last 20 starts at home. López has an 11.20 ERA over 13.2 innings lifetime against Toronto, and the Orioles are 1-11 in his last 12 road starts. However, five of the last seven have finished UNDER.