Heading into this off-season, most likely assumed the Toronto Blue Jays would allocate their resources to beefing up their offence and overhauling the bullpen with a few ceiling-raising moves while rounding out their starting rotation with a back-end starter. That’s probably how many foresaw this winter unfolding.

But now, less than a week away from the annual Winter Meetings, things appear to have shifted. What was once considered a pipedream has suddenly become realistic, as the franchise has been heavily invested in pursuing an impact starting pitcher from one of the upper tiers in free agency.

Granted, one of those top-tier hurlers is already off the board, with Blake Snell joining the Los Angeles Dodgers’ super team on a lucrative five-year, $182-million contract. Even so, several notable arms remain unsigned, including Corbin Burnes and Max Fried — both of whom received qualifying offers.

After reading those first three paragraphs, you probably thought, “Hey, we’ve already seen this story before with the Blue Jays.” And you’re right, you have. It’d feel incredibly repetitive for this team to acquire another front-line starter, further committing dollars to a position of strength while having greater needs elsewhere.

On the other hand, though, there’s surely a method to their madness. And it might be fairly justifiable. The more you consider why Toronto would upgrade its starting staff, the more it makes sense.

Let’s travel back to the start of the 2023 season for a second.

The Blue Jays entered that campaign slated to feature one of the top rotations in baseball, fronted by ace Kevin Gausman, a healthy Alek Manoah (who was coming off a third-place Cy Young finish), José Berríos, the newly-signed Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi.

Toronto’s front office banked on having two front-line starters in Gausman and Manoah, Berríos improving from his uncharacteristically poor ’22 campaign (which he did), Bassitt continuing to be a model of consistency (check), and the belief Kikuchi could morph into a serviceable fifth starter (he did that and more).

But, as many of you remember, there was one major issue with that starting staff: Manoah.

In a year where the 2022 All-Star was demoted to the minors twice, failing to reassemble the pitcher who dominated the previous two seasons, the Blue Jays were saved by their other four starters, an outstanding stretch from Trevor Richards and the return of Hyun Jin Ryu. As the story goes, they only used eight starters that year — the fewest in the majors — and six if you subtract Richards, who transitioned from the bullpen, and Wes Parsons.

Despite losing Manoah, Toronto’s starting rotation still finished ’23 among the premier units in baseball, ranking third in starter’s ERA (3.85), fourth in strikeout-to-walk rate difference (16.7 per cent), fifth in innings pitched (894.2) and sixth in fWAR (12.6).

The Blue Jays bet on the success of their pitching staff continuing last season. However, they never replaced the top-of-the-rotation presence they lost amidst Manoah’s nightmare season. Instead, management’s only starting pitching acquisition was Yariel Rodríguez, evidently leaving them quite exposed.

Collectively, the starting staff took a step back in 2024, placing 11th in innings pitched (861.2) while tying for 11th in K-BB rate difference (14.8 per cent), 14th in ERA (3.95) and 17th in fWAR (10.6).

Heading into ’25, Toronto’s rotation is projected to include Gausman, Berríos, Bassitt and Bowden Francis, with either Rodríguez or prospect Jake Bloss rounding out the starting five. Not exactly the fearsome staff they put together almost two years ago.

There should be some in-season reinforcements, as Manoah and top prospect Ricky Tiedemann recover from Tommy John surgery. However, how those two might impact this club next season remains a massive question mark.

While the Blue Jays certainly have more pressing needs, making a splash for a high-ceiling starter may be a necessity rather than a luxury, especially in hopes of constructing a formidable post-season rotation.

This winter’s free-agent class of starters is loaded with talent, considerably more than there’ll be a year from now.

Even with Snell off the market, multiple tiers of impact starting pitchers remain, beginning atop the list with Burnes, Fried and Japan’s Roki Sasaki. After that trio, you have the group of Jack Flaherty, Nathan Eovaldi and Nick Pivetta (qualified).

That’s followed by Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Andrew Heaney in the ensuing tier. Then there’s the likes of Walker Buehler and Shane Bieber in the often-hurt-former-aces tier. And depending on your stance around signing future Hall-of-Fame, now 40-year-old pitchers, there’s also Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander — although classifying either as an impact signing might be slightly exaggerating.

Nevertheless, there’s plenty of high-upside talent still up for grabs. Next off-season, however, likely won’t be as favourable of an opportunity to land a front-line starter, with the field dramatically diminishing beyond Zac Gallen, Dylan Cease, Shota Imanaga (mutual option) and Framber Valdez.

That may present a massive hurdle for a Blue Jays organization that’ll also face losing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette in free agency after next season. Adding to that dilemma, Bassitt will also reach the open market, with Gausman becoming eligible the following winter and Berríos able to opt out of the final two years of his contract.

Not only is a fast-approaching cliff on the horizon for Toronto’s position-player core, but change is also coming for the foundation of their starting rotation. With an influx of talent available, management would be foolish not to explore the field.

They may never ultimately strike, given the current asking prices. Perhaps being patient can net them a difference-maker at a bargain acquisition cost in January or February.

Miraculously, the Blue Jays’ starting rotation has remained extremely healthy over the last three seasons, way more than it probably should have. If history tells us anything, their positive fortune will eventually run out — possibly as soon as next season.

Contingency plans must be put in place to help mitigate the club’s risk if that comes to fruition in 2025. As things currently stand, though, there’s plenty of work ahead in that department, with Bloss and Adam Macko slotted as the organization’s Nos. 6 and 7 starters, respectively, heading into 2025.

Of course, Toronto has been very fortunate it hasn’t needed to dip into its limited minor-league pitching depth in previous seasons when injuries or underperforming results arose.

In 2022, the Blue Jays were saved by Ross Stripling after Ryu was lost for the year due to Tommy John surgery. Then, during the following season, Ryu returned the favour by seamlessly swapping places with Manoah following his mid-season return. And this past season, it was Francis’ turn, enjoying a breakout performance at the best possible time following the Kikuchi trade.

But as we look toward ’25, this team is one starting pitching injury away from serious trouble, especially if Gausman, Berríos or Bassitt missed significant time.

That further increases the benefit of acquiring a front-line starter this winter. Having said that, it’s not exactly the most opportune time to be seeking a durable impact hurler, as many from this off-season’s crop feature prior health concerns — such as Fried (forearm), Buehler (TJ and hip) and Sasaki (undisclosed arm/shoulder).

Chances are that’ll boost the price for someone like Burnes — one of the many arms the Blue Jays have been linked to this winter — who’s recorded the third-most innings pitched (590) since 2022.

With age comes the never-ending battle against Father Time, and the reality is that Toronto’s ace isn’t getting any younger — nor are Berríos (31 next season) and Bassitt (36 next season).

Gausman is set to enter his age-34 season in 2025, and he wasn’t exactly a dominating force on the mound a season ago. After being a five-win pitcher per FanGraphs’ WAR in ’22 and ’23, the right-hander wasn’t nearly as valuable in his third campaign with the Blue Jays, finishing one decimal point shy of a three-win season.

The overall results weren’t up to Gausman’s usual standards, pitching to a 3.83 ERA and 3.77 FIP — both his highest since ’19. He also witnessed a dramatic dip in swing-and-miss, as his strikeout rate (21.4 per cent) fell almost 10 per cent from the previous year. Most of that came from his ineffective splitter, which saw its whiff rate decrease from 43.2 per cent in ’23 to 33.5 per cent in ’24.

Paired with his inconsistent fastball velocity, registering as low as 87.3 m.p.h. and as high as 98.5, it was difficult not to wonder if this might be a glimpse into the righty’s eventual performance decline. And it may have been. But there’s also a chance he recovers next season and shuts down that very notion.

Beginning 2025 as healthy as possible will be crucial for Gausman, who, in retrospect, probably should’ve opened this past season on the IL after experiencing right shoulder fatigue in spring training. Even if he avoids any serious ailments, though, who’s to say he’ll recapture his elite swing-and-miss totals from his first two years in Toronto?

Berríos and Bassitt have been two of baseball’s most consistent starters in recent years, so there’s little concern about either player’s production heading into next year. Most models, however, expect Francis to regress from his sensational late-season stretch, particularly the .125 OPP BABIP from his final nine starts — an element represented in his 4.31 projected 2025 ERA from FanGraphs’ Steamer model.

As the Blue Jays’ fifth starter, they’d happily take that from Francis — except he isn’t currently slotted in the fifth starter’s role. And if he isn’t the only one who takes a step back in 2025, the club will have a much tougher time climbing out of the AL East’s basement.

As you’ve likely gathered by now, Toronto’s starting rotation could look very different in a few years.

With Bassitt a free agent after 2025 and Gausman after ’26, the organization only has two starters signed for the ’27 campaign: Berríos, who could also depart due to his opt-out, and Rodríguez. Sure, Manoah is under club control through ’27 and Francis through ’29, but a core of those three — assuming Berríos opted out — wouldn’t be ideal.

If you were to add, say, someone like Burnes, Fried or Sasaki to that mix, that’d completely alter the rotation’s future outlook. In that scenario, perhaps Berríos is more inclined to stick around and doesn’t opt out, remaining with the franchise through the ’28 campaign.

Something like that would also be far more appealing for Toronto’s competitive window moving forward, based on the number of internal promotions that may come from a farm system that includes Tiedemann, Bloss, Macko, Brandon Barriera and Landen Maroudis, as well as recent draftees Trey Yesavage, Khal Stephen and Johnny King.