It might just be me, but I tend to group the Guardians, Rays, and Brewers into one group defined by their low-budget tendencies, but high-quality results. Two of those teams won their divisions last year when there was a good argument to be made for them not doing so, and Cleveland was one of those teams.

Let’s take a look at the Guardian’s successes last year, as well as their 2025 plan.

For the second time in three seasons, Cleveland reached 92 wins and won the American League Central. With the Royals and Tigers on the rise and the Twins having just won the division a year prior, the Guardians weren’t the “fun” pick to win the Central, even with Fangraphs giving them a respectable 24.3% chance.

Cleveland kicked those odds to the curb and led the division for 187 calendar days, threatening the Yankees and Orioles as potential AL leaders rather than just the division. A 12-17 August was their only month in which they finished below .500, and they held a 50-30 record at home last year.

Though it didn’t result in a World Series title, they had multiple clutch moments at their home park that had baseball fans in awe. Trade deadline acquisition Lane Thomas crushed a go-ahead grand slam in Game 5 of the ALDS off of AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal to put Cleveland ahead for good, and Jhonkensy Noel hit a game-tying home run in the 9th innings of Game 3 of the ALCS with David Fry walking off the Yankees in the next inning with a home run of his own.

Unfortunately, the Yankees had clutch moments of their own, and they eventually downed the Guardians in five games in the same series. Regardless of the outcome, Cleveland exceeded expectations, and it led to first-year manager Stephen Vogt winning AL Manager of the Year.

For this organization’s past several years, it’d be hard not to talk about the team without mentioning 3B José Ramírez, who spearheaded Cleveland’s offense once again. Ramírez slashed .279/.335/.537 with a .872 OPS, 39 home runs, 118 RBIs, 39 doubles, and 41 stolen bases. He was named to his sixth career All-Star team, he won his fifth Silver Slugger award, and he finished fifth in AL MVP voting. Ramírez receiving MVP votes has become commonplace; he’s done that in eight of his past nine seasons.

Ramírez had a supporting cast that contributed to Cleveland’s hot start to the season. Mississauga native 1B Josh Naylor set a career-high in both home runs (31), RBIs (108), and walks (58), earning himself his first career All-Star honour. LF Steven Kwan returned to his near-.300 batting average that he possessed during his rookie season, hitting .292 and hitting a career-high 14 home runs, and Fry had a well-timed solid season, posting a .804 OPS, 14 homers, 15 RBIs, and 18 doubles.

Cleveland has usually operated by committee in several facets of their roster, but the pitching lived up to that mantra more than the hitting did this year. The Guardians concluded 2023 with a starting rotation that showed a lot of promise with its young arms, but a majority of those arms battled their fair share of setbacks last season.

Shane Bieber made only two starts before being shut down and undergoing season-ending Tommy John surgery, Gavin Williams didn’t make his season debut until early July after a 60-day IL stint with elbow inflammation, Triston McKenzie was optioned to triple-A at the end of June after posting a 5.11 ERA through 16 starts, and Logan Allen was optioned multiple times in the second half of the season after pitching to a 5.73 ERA in 20 starts.

The Guardians would still find a way to make things work, however, utilizing several guys that fans probably didn’t expect to see pitch for a team battling for an AL-best record. Among those names was journeyman Ben Lively, whose 29 starts exceeded his previous career-high of 15. Lively held a 3.81 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, and a 2.9 BB/9 in 151 innings pitched. Not bad at all for the $750,000 contract that he was signed to before the start of the season.

Matthew Boyd (2.72 ERA over 8 starts) was also summoned to make starts later in the season, and the club also relied on 37-year-old Carlos Carrasco to eat up almost 104 innings.

From the group of starters that Cleveland was looking forward to seeing more of, Tanner Bibee was the only one to give them a full-season workload. He made 31 starts, posting a 3.47 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and a 9.7 K/9. He also made two starts apiece in Cleveland’s postseason series’, holding a 3.45 ERA over 15 2/3 total innings.

With all due respect to Cleveland’s starters, they weren’t being asked to go seven or eight innings every night. That was largely due to the outstanding bullpen that the Guardians possessed, highlighted by a quartet of relievers – Emmanuel Clase, Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis, and Cade Smith – who made 70+ starts and held a sub-2.00 ERA, leading all relievers with his 2.7 fWAR. The headliner of that group was Clase, who finished second in the majors in saves (48) and led the majors in games finished (66). If the Guardians could lead after four to five innings, they knew what to do from there.

The Guardians did a majority of their offseason work by trade, and in classic Cleveland fashion, they focused mainly on their pitching.

They started by trading for Blue Jays 1B Spencer Horwitz in exchange for 2B Andrés Giménez and RP Nick Sandlin. Cleveland would also acquire minor league outfielder Nick Mitchell in the trade, but the wound up flipping Horwitz to the Pirates just a matter of hours later. In return for Horwitz, the Pirates sent Cleveland SP Luis L. Ortiz and younger pitching prospects Michael Kennedy and Josh Hartle.

Ortiz should immediately be plugged into Cleveland’s starting rotation, and he adds to their pitching depth in case they fall on a heap of injuries like they had last year. Last season with the Pirates, Ortiz started the year as a multi-inning reliever and ultimately switched to a starter to conclude the campaign. Between both roles, he made 37 appearances (15 starts) and pitched to a 3.32 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a 7.1 K/9. Although there wasn’t a massive discrepancy, his numbers as a starter were better than his time in relief. He mainly features a 96 mph fastball with a 95 mph sinker, as well as a mid-80s slider.

Both Kennedy and Hartle fell into MLB Pipeline’s Top 30 prospects in Cleveland’s organization, however, neither of them has pitched above single-A or high-A yet. The 20-year-old Kennedy relies on deception over velocity with a low-90s to late-80s fastball, but he still posted an impressive 10.2 K/9 versus a 2.0 BB/9 in 83.2 innings at Single-A and High-A last year. Also a low-velocity pitcher, Hartle only made one appearance at single-A last season. He was drafted in the 3rd round of last year’s draft out of Wake Forest where he held a 4.41 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 10.0 K/9 in his three collegiate seasons.

The Guardians continued to work the pitching market via trade, sending Josh Naylor to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for SP Slade Cecconi. With Christian Walker entering free agency and the Guardians reportedly throwing Naylor on the trade block, this deal seemed to work for both sides.

Cecconi has only made 27 career appearances since his debut in 2023, most recently posting a 6.66 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 20 games last season (13 starts), allowing 16 home runs in those outings. A former first-round draft pick, Cecconi opened last season as a starter, but after he was optioned to triple-A in July, he was recalled and pitched as a reliever in varying lengths before being optioned again in mid-September. It’s unclear which role he’ll serve this season as well as which level to which he will start the year, but pitching depth is not a bad thing, especially with an organization like the Guardians.

Although trading away Naylor opened up an expanded 1B/DH role for Kyle Manzardo, Cleveland still supplemented the position by signing Carlos Santana to a one-year, $12 million contract. Santana completed his 15th MLB season in 2024, slashing .238/.328/.420 with a .768 OPS, 23 home runs, 71 RBIs, and 26 doubles with the Minnesota Twins. With a 109 OPS+, he has had an OPS+ of at least 100 in all but two of his major league seasons. Making this his third overall stint with the Guardians, the affordability and experience of Santana made this a win-win for Cleveland.

Cleveland continued to support their starting rotation, this time with a pair of pitchers coming off major injuries in Shane Bieber and John Means. As mentioned earlier, Bieber missed almost all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He was re-signed to a one-year deal worth $14 million with a player option for 2026, and while he won’t open the season on Cleveland’s active roster, he told reporters this week that he’s made tremendous strides with his rehab, as well throwing up to his seventh bullpen of the spring.

Means signed a one-year deal with a club option for 2026, but he underwent his second career Tommy John surgery last summer. He made four starts with Baltimore last season, allowing just six earned runs, 16 strikeouts, and only two walks over 20.1 innings pitched. The Guardians are hoping to have Means back during the backend of 2025, but if something goes awry, his guaranteed earnings for this season is only $1 million. As of last week, his throwing progression had reached 75-90 feet.

The Guardians added a couple of pieces to their bullpen, starting with veteran reliever Paul Sewald. Signed to a one-year deal, Sewald made 42 appearances last season, owning a 4.31 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, and 16 saves for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Unfortunately, he was placed on the IL twice last season due to neck and oblique injuries, with one stint being in September when Arizona was in the playoff hunt.

Cleveland also added another veteran in Jakob Junis, who split time between Milwaukee and Cincinnati last season. As part of a trade that sent Frankie Montas to the Brewers, Junis missed over two months with a shoulder injury last year. When healthy, though, he posted a 2.69 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP over 67 innings pitched.

Finally, Cleveland parted ways with a couple of guys who had been with the organization since 2021, sending Eli Morgan to the Chicago Cubs and Myles Straw to the Blue Jays.

Would I pick Cleveland to win the AL Central? Probably not, but I wouldn’t have done it last year either, and I would’ve been very wrong.

I’m a big fan of what they did to their bullpen by grabbing Sewald and Junis. Despite having arguably the best ‘pen in baseball last year, they’re not running it back completely. Getting some new and/or under-the-radar arms in there gives them some depth in case they run into injuries or underperformance. I can’t say I’m too worried about the starting pitching either. If they can stay healthier than they were last year, then that’s great. But if not, something tells me I can trust them to make it work.

Offensively is where I still need some convincing, though. Although losing J. Naylor doesn’t make or break this lineup, they’re going to need someone else to fill in some blanks. It’s worth noting that Fry will miss close to the first half of the season after having UCL surgery during the offseason. He’ll be able to DH upon his return, but his work in the field will have to wait until the 2026 season. Kyle Manzardo, Jhonkensy Noel, Bo Naylor (and others), we’re looking at you.

The AL Central has improved, and I’d argue it has improved enough to give us a new champion. However, it hasn’t gotten better enough to leave Cleveland in the dust and out of a playoff spot.