logo
Should Blue Jays fans be concerned about Jose Berrios’s rocky start?
Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios (17) walks towards the dugout against the Baltimore Orioles during the second inning at Rogers Centre
Photo credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
Adam Peddle
Apr 19, 2025, 13:00 EDTUpdated: Apr 19, 2025, 12:31 EDT
Comments
It’s March 27th, 2025, Opening Day for the Toronto Blue Jays. Fans packed the Rogers Centre with hope in their hearts and watched as the club’s most durable arm, José Berríos, toed the rubber to kick things off. “La Makina” was the choice to open the season, not because he’s the flashiest pitcher, but because he’s one of the most reliable arms in all of baseball.
But on this particular afternoon? Not so much.
Berríos was shelled by the Orioles, surrendering six earned runs over five innings. The Jays dropped their opener, and Berríos started his season on the wrong foot. One rough outing isn’t a death sentence by any means, and knowing La Makina, he would be back for the next one. 
Over the next three starts, he would have flashes of greatness but then signs of concern. And right now, he seems to be the problem in the Blue Jays’ rotation that no one is talking about.

A rotation firing on all cylinders… mostly

For the most part, the Blue Jays’ rotation has been one of the most lethal units in all of baseball. Chris Bassitt is turning back the clock and leading all of Major League Baseball in ERA. Kevin Gausman looks like he’s back to his 2023 self, while Bowden Francis has been flirting with no-hitters into the fifth inning.
And then there’s Berríos.
Through his first four starts, Berríos owns a bloated 5.16 ERA and a WHIP of 1.46. He’s getting hit hard and often. He did have a very good outing in Boston, going seven innings and only giving up one earned, then he came crashing back down to earth when he faced the Orioles yet again, giving up four earned runs over 5 frames. The eye test isn’t pretty, and the metrics? They tell a similar story.

The Baseball Savant Blues

A quick glance at Berríos’ Baseball Savant page paints a concerning picture—quite literally, in shades of blue. He’s in the bottom fourth percentile in all of MLB when it comes to pitching run value. His expected ERA, which sits at 4.74, is not a drastic difference from his actual ERA.
Where is most of this damage coming from? His four-seamer.
Opponents are hitting .429 off the pitch with an expected batting average of .417. The slugging? An eye-popping .857, with the expected slugging close behind at .724. And if you look at the heat map, he has been mixing it decently well, but the major of the time, that fastball is living middle-middle, and belt high.
The cutter isn’t doing him many favours either, though he’s only throwing it around five percent of the time. Don’t be surprised if that pitch gets phased out entirely.

The Berríos Paradox

And yet… this is sort of the José Berríos experience, isn’t it?
The metrics never seem to love him, and yet he keeps showing up, making 32 starts a year, pitching for a mid-3 ERA, and among the leaders in quality starts. It’s been this way for a while now. His expected stats are consistently worse than his actual results. Here’s a look at his ERA vs. xERA  over the past four seasons:
  • 2021: ERA 3.52 | xERA 4.12
  • 2022: ERA 5.23 | xERA 5.11
  • 2023: ERA 3.65 | xERA 4.41
  • 2024: ERA 3.91 | xERA 4.39
Advanced analytics are great. They have their place in the game. But sometimes, a guy is just an anomaly. Berríos has always been that guy.

So… what should we make of this?

Despite the rough start, there’s no panic in the Jays’ clubhouse—and there probably shouldn’t be. José Berríos has built a career on defying the numbers. His fastball may be getting tagged right now, but his track record suggests he’ll find a way to adjust.
He’s not a Cy Young candidate. He might not even be your Game 1 starter come October. But he’s still the kind of pitcher you want taking the ball every fifth day. And maybe that’s why no one’s talking about him. Because deep down, we all know he’s going to be just fine.

Featured

Editorials

Breaking News